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+ifp_id q_type q_text q_desc q_status date_start date_suspend date_to_close date_closed outcome short_title days_open n_opts options
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+1001-0 0 Will the Six-Party talks (among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, and Japan) formally resume in 2011? 'In' refers to any time during the remainder of the 2011 calendar year, as defined by Eastern Time. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/1/2011 12/30/2011 12/31/2011 1/2/2012 b Six-party talks resume 123 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1003-0 0 Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy by 31 December 2011? A 'yes' answer to this question requires not only that by end of day 31 December (11:59:59 pm ET) the European Commission has recommended that Serbia be granted candidacy, but also that the Commission has formally named Serbia a candidate. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/1/2011 12/30/2011 12/31/2011 1/3/2012 b Serbia EU candidacy 124 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1004-0 0 Will the United Nations General Assembly recognize a Palestinian state by 30 September 2011? 'By' means at or prior to the end of the day on 30 September 2011 (11:59:59 pm ET). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/1/2011 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 9/30/2011 b UN-GA recognize Palestine 29 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1005-0 0 Will Daniel Ortega win another term as President of Nicaragua during the late 2011 elections? If the Nicaraguan elections do not occur in late 2011, this question will be voided. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/1/2011 11/4/2011 11/5/2011 11/5/2011 a Ortega win in Nicaragua 65 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1006-0 0 Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011? 'By' means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 31 December 2011. The answer to this question will be determined by the actions of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA). The answer will be yes if the ISDA Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee (DC) for Europe determines by 31 December 2011 that a credit event pertaining to Italian government obligations has occurred that triggers payments under outstanding credit default swap contracts. Credit events include such things as failure to pay and restructuring. Reports of ISDA decisions can be found at http://www.isda.org/credit/. closed 9/1/2011 12/30/2011 12/31/2011 1/3/2012 b Italy restructure debt 124 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1008-0 0 By 31 December 2011, will the World Trade Organization General Council or Ministerial Conference approve the 'accession package' for WTO membership for Russia? 'By' means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 31 December 2011. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/1/2011 12/30/2011 12/31/2011 12/16/2011 a WTO membership for Russia 106 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1010-0 0 Will the 30 Sept 2011 "last" PPB for Nov 2011 Brent Crude oil futures* exceed $115? PPB= price per barrel. Different variants of Brent Crude oil futures are traded around the world, but we are interested in the price of the "Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financial Futures" contract on the Chicago Mercantile exchange (http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil-last-day_quotes_settlements_futures.html). This particular futures contract is essentially a bet on where the price of oil will be on the first Business day of a given month. We are asking for you to forecast the probability that the "last price" (http://www.mypivots.com/dictionary/definition/188/settlement-price) of November 2011 Brent crude futures exceeds some amount at the end of September 30's trading (515ET). For more information on Brent futures contracts specifications, see http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/crude-oil/brent-crude-oil-last-day_contract_specifications.html. closed 9/7/2011 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 9/30/2011 b Crude oil exceed $115 23 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1011-0 0 Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading at or above 9,500 on 30 September 2011? This question will resolve at the end of Stock Market trading in Tokyo on September 30 2011, at 3pm Japan Standard Time (JST). Resolution will occur according to data at Google Finance at http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXNIKKEI:NI225 closed 9/7/2011 9/28/2011 9/29/2011 9/29/2011 b Nikkei above 9,500 22 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1012-0 0 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 October 2011? Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved 'no' if Berlusconi holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/7/2011 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 9/30/2011 b Berlusconi vacate office 23 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1013-0 0 Will the London Gold Market Fixing price of gold (USD per ounce) exceed $1850 on 30 September 2011 (10am ET)? Question will be resolved according to data at http://www.kitco.com/charts/historicalgold.html for the afternoon fixing price on September 30, which is announced at 3pm London time (or 10AM ET). closed 9/7/2011 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 9/30/2011 b Gold exceed $1850 23 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1015-0 0 Will Israel's ambassador be formally invited to return to Turkey by 30 September 2011? Question will be voided if Israeli ambassador never leaves Turkey. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 30 September 2011. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains has not left office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/7/2011 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 9/30/2011 b Israel's ambassador to Turkey 23 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1016-0 0 Will PM Donald Tusk's Civic Platform Party win more seats than any other party in the October 2011 Polish parliamentary elections? Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains has not left office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/7/2011 10/7/2011 10/8/2011 10/8/2011 a CPP majority in Poland 31 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1017-0 0 Will Robert Mugabe cease to be President of Zimbabwe by 30 September 2011? "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 30 September 2011. For "yes" to be the outcome, events must not only occur but also be reported by the media prior to deadline. Mugabe will be considered "in power" as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. Leader has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. Leader is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state).
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) will be used for question resolution. Administrator reserves the right to choose one of these sources or to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts or may deem the question invalid/void.
closed 9/7/2011 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 9/30/2011 b Mugabe vacate presidency 23 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1018-0 0 Will Muqtada al-Sadr formally withdraw support for the current Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki by 30 September 2011? "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 30 September 2011. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/7/2011 9/29/2011 9/30/2011 9/30/2011 b Al-Sadr withdraw support of Iraqi govt 23 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1019-0 0 Will Ali Abdullah Saleh cease to be Yemen's head of government by 30 September 2011? "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 30 September 2011. For 'yes' to be the outcome, events must not only occur but also be reported by the media prior to deadline. Saleh will be considered "in power" as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. Leader has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. Leader is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state).
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) will be used for question resolution. Administrator reserves the right to choose one of these sources or to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts or may deem the question invalid/void.
voided 9/7/2011 NULL 12/15/2011 NA Saleh vacate office NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1020-0 0 Will peace talks between Israel and Palestine formally resume at some point between 3 October 2011 and 1 November 2011? An announcement of talks is not sufficient. Talks must actually resume as signified by a formal meeting, summit, etc. Between should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains has not left office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 10/31/2011 11/1/2011 11/1/2011 b Israel-Palestine peace talks resume 28 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1021-0 0 Will the expansion of the European bailout fund be ratified by all 17 Eurozone nations before 1 November 2011? Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 10/30/2011 10/31/2011 10/13/2011 a European bailout expansion ratified 9 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1022-0 0 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011? Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 10/5/2011 10/6/2011 10/6/2011 b S. African visa for Dalai Lama 2 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1023-0 0 Will former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko be found guilty on any charges in a Ukrainian court before 1 November 2011? Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 10/30/2011 10/31/2011 10/10/2011 a Ukranian PM guilty on any charges 6 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1024-0 0 Will Abdoulaye Wade win re-election as President of Senegal? Background information: Senegal's presidential election is currently set for February 2012. The question will close with a 'no' if Wade drops out of the race, fails to qualify for the runoff, or loses the first or the second round. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 3/25/2012 3/30/2012 3/25/2012 b Wade re-election in Senegal 173 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1025-0 0 Will the Freedom and Justice Party win at least 20 percent of the seats in the first People's Assembly (Majlis al-Sha'b) election in post-Mubarak
? The Freedom and Justice Party is affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. A definite date for the election has not been set but it is expected to occur sometime in the fall of 2011. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 1/1/2012 1/31/2012 1/20/2012 a FJ party win 20% in Egypt 108 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1026-0 0 Will Joseph Kabila remain president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo through 31 January 2012? The election is currently scheduled to take place on 28 November 2011, and any handover of power to take place on 20 December 2011. However, the election may be postponed. The question may remain open until 31 January 2012 even if Kabila wins. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 1/30/2012 1/31/2012 1/31/2012 a Kabila remain president of Congo 119 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1028-0 0 Will Moody's issue a new downgrade of the sovereign debt rating of the Government of Greece between 3 October 2011 and 30 November 2011? Between should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains has not left office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.' closed 10/4/2011 11/29/2011 11/30/2011 11/30/2011 b Moody's downgrade of Greece 57 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1029-0 0 Will any of the 20 jailed Bahraini medical workers be released by 1 November 2011? Release must be reported in the media by this deadline. "By" means at or prior to the end of the day on 1 November 2011 (11:59:59 pm ET). Background is avilable at http://www.smh.com.au/world/outcry-as-bahrain-jails-medical-staff-who-aided-activists-20110930-1l1fm.html. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 10/4/2011 NULL 12/15/2011 NA Bahraini prisoner release NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1030-0 0 Will the UN Security Council pass a measure/resolution concerning Syria in October 2011? Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 10/30/2011 10/31/2011 10/31/2011 b UN-SC Syria resolution 27 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1031-0 0 Will the U.S. Congress pass a joint resolution of disapproval in October 2011 concerning the proposed $5+ billion F-16 fleet upgrade deal with Taiwan? "By" means at or prior to the end of the day on 21 October 2011 (11:59:59 pm ET). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 10/21/2011 10/22/2011 10/21/2011 b F-16 sale to Taiwan 17 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1032-0 0 Will the Japanese government formally announce the decision to buy at least 40 new jet fighters by 30 November 2011? "By" means at or prior to the end of the day on 30 November 2011 (11:59:59 pm ET). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/4/2011 11/29/2011 11/30/2011 11/30/2011 b Japan decision to buy jets 57 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1033-0 0 Will the Tunisian Ennahda party officially announce the formation of an interim coalition government by 15 November 2011? For background, see http://www.voanews.com/english/news/africa/north/Tunisias-Islamist-Party-Begins-to-Form-Coalition-Government---132778208.html. 'By' means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 15 November 2011. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online or Voice of America (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com or http://www.voanews.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about the formation of a coalition government, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that no coalition was formed). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, Economist Online, or Voice of America. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/8/2011 11/14/2011 11/15/2011 11/15/2011 b Tunisian Ennahda party coalition 7 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1034-0 0 Will Japan officially become a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership before 1 March 2012? For background, see http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japans-farmers-dug-in-against-free-trade-pact/2011/10/30/gIQA2tW6WM_story.html. 'Before' should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about international membership, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that there was no official membership or admittance). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/8/2011 2/28/2012 2/29/2012 2/29/2012 b Japan join Trans-Pacific Partnership 113 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1035-0 0 Will the United Nations Security Council pass a new resolution concerning Iran by 1 April 2012? 'By' means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 1 April 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about an official announcement, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that no announcement was made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
closed 11/8/2011 3/31/2012 4/1/2012 4/1/2012 b UN-SC Iran resolution 145 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1036-0 0 Will media reports indicate that Iraq has experienced a military coup (or attempted coup) before 1 June 2012? "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a military coup, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that no military coup took place). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/8/2011 5/30/2012 5/31/2012 5/31/2012 b Iraq military coup 205 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1037-0 0 Will Greece remain a member of the EU through 1 June 2012? "Through" should be interpreted to mean until the beginning (Midnight ET) of the following day--June 2. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a vote, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that no votes were cast). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/8/2011 5/31/2012 6/1/2012 6/1/2012 a Greece remain member of EU 206 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1038-0 0 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012? 'Through' should be interpreted to mean until the beginning (Midnight ET) of the following day--February 1. For "yes" to be the outcome, events must not only occur but also be reported by the media prior to deadline. Khalifa will be considered "in power" as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. Leader has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. Leader is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state).
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) will be used for question resolution. Administrator reserves the right to choose one of these sources or to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts or may deem the question invalid/void.
closed 11/8/2011 1/30/2012 1/30/2012 1/31/2012 a Al-Kalifa remain King of Bahrain 84 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1039-0 0 Will Bashar al-Assad remain President of Syria through 31 January 2012? 'Through' should be interpreted to mean until the beginning (Midnight ET) of the following day--February 1. For 'yes' to be the outcome, events must not only occur but also be reported by the media prior to deadline. Assad will be considered "in power" as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. Leader has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. Leader is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state).
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) will be used for question resolution. Administrator reserves the right to choose one of these sources or to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts or may deem the question invalid/void.
closed 11/8/2011 1/30/2012 1/31/2012 1/31/2012 a Al-Assad remain President of Syria 84 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1040-0 0 Will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus through 30 June 2012? 'Through' should be interpreted to mean until the beginning (Midnight ET) of the following day--July 1. Even if, e.g., Lukashenko loses an election, outcome will be resolved as 'yes' unless Lukashenko actually vacates office (voluntarily or by force). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/8/2011 6/29/2012 6/30/2012 6/30/2012 a Lukashenko remain President of Belarus 235 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1041-0 0 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 January 2012? 'Before' should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved 'no' if Berlusconi holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/8/2011 12/30/2011 12/31/2011 11/12/2011 a Berlusconi vacate office 2 4 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1042-0 0 Will Lucas Papademos be the next Prime Minister of Greece? Note: A new interim Prime Minister would qualify as the "next Prime Minister." Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/8/2011 12/30/2011 12/31/2011 11/10/2011 a Papademos next PM of Greece 2 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1043-0 0 Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012? 'Before' should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day (29 February 2012). Outcome will be resolved 'no' if Papademos holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Death of Papademos constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Greek succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/12/2011 2/28/2012 2/29/2012 2/29/2012 b Papademos vacate PM of Greece 79 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1044-0 0 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? Note that "official" reopening would require some kind of formal announcement that diplomatic representatives have returned to their posts at the consent or invitation of their foreign government hosts. Any partial or limited re-opening (e.g., to provide basic paperwork or procedural assistance to travelers or expatriates) would not in and of itself qualify as an 'official' reopening. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 29 February 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) or the British Embassy in Tehran (http://ukiniran.fco.gov.uk/en/). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about embassy closure, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the embassy did not reopen). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/12/2011 2/28/2012 2/29/2012 2/29/2012 b UK Tehran embassy reopen 79 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1045-0 0 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? Arraignment, preliminary hearing, or other pre-trial proceedings do not constitute the beginning of a trial. 'Any venue' should be interpreted to mean any court of law. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 31 March 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a trial absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that a trial has not begun). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/12/2011 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Gaddafi trial begin 110 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1046-0 0 Will Australia formally transfer Uranium to India by 1 June 2012? The Australian government has recently lifted its ban on any sales of its uranium to India, but this question refers to the actual transfer of the physical material. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 1 June 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) or Uranium News (http://uraniumnews.com/) or World Nuclear News (http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/default.aspx) or Australian Uranium Association (http://www.aua.org.au/Content/TransportSafety.aspx). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., it will be assumed that no uranium that has been transferred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/14/2011 5/31/2012 6/1/2012 6/1/2012 b Australia transfer Uranium to India 170 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1047-0 0 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012? Only an unwelcomed incursion of non-Iranian troops into Iranian soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of an Iranian embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Iran. Similarly, an incursion into Iranian territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Iran. A "foreign or multinational military force" refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of 'military force' excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, 'rebels,' independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of 'foreign or multinational military force' are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government. "Fired on", however, is defined more broadly, to include bombs, missiles, chemical or other unconventional weapons or small arms fired on non-captive Iranian troops, soil, or naval vessels (including citizens within Iranian territory), military installations, or military vehicles (e.g., ships, subs, tanks, jets), not including Iranian embassies abroad. 'Before' should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day (August 31 2012). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no new hostile acts). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/14/2011 8/30/2012 8/31/2012 8/31/2012 b Iran invasion by foreign force 261 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1048-0 0 Will S&P downgrade the AAA long-term credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by 30 March 2012? "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 30 March 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: S&P or Bloomberg News or BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings or http://www.bloomberg.com/ or http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., rating remains at AAA). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/14/2011 3/29/2012 1/18/2012 1/16/2012 a S&P downgrade EFSF 33 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1049-0 0 Will Asif Ali Zardari resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of President of Pakistan before 1 June 2012? Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day (31 May 2012). Outcome will be resolved 'no' if Zardari holds the position of President at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Death of Zardari constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Pakistani succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/14/2011 5/30/2012 5/31/2012 5/31/2012 b Zardari vacate President of Pakistan 169 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1050-0 0 Will the next Palestinian general election commence by 1 June 2012? A general election is defined as an election where more than half of a legislative body's parliamentary seats are voted on (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_election). After several prior unmet commitments on the subject, it has most recently been announced by Palestinian authorities that a general election will commence on 4 May 2012. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 1 June 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., election has not been held). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/19/2011 5/31/2012 6/1/2012 6/1/2012 b Palestinian hold general election 165 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1051-0 0 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013? "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day (31 December 2012). Outcome will be resolved "no" if Monti holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Death of Monti constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Italian succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
closed 12/19/2011 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/21/2012 a Monti vacate PM of Italy 368 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1052-0 0 Will Aung San Suu Kyi be sworn in or seated as a member of Parliament in Myanmar (Burma) before 1 January 2013? Up to 48 parliamentary seats may be at stake in the as yet date-undetermined "by-elections" for Myanmar's parliament, and democracy champion Kyi has signaled her intent to run. Alleged or actual electoral victory is not sufficient. Aung San Suu Kyi must be formally sworn in or otherwise officially "seated" in the position. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of calendar year 2012 ET (31 December 2012). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Kyi is not a member of parliament). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
closed 12/19/2011 5/30/2012 5/31/2012 5/2/2012 a Kyi join Parliament of Myanmar 135 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1053-0 0 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU? An official announcement is one made by the Prime Minister or other senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the UK government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and offical capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the UK government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 31 December 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., UK is still a member of the EU). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
closed 12/19/2011 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b UK intent to withdraw from EU 378 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1054-0 0 Will a North Korean or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter South Korea before 1 June 2012? Only an unwelcomed incursion of North Korean or multinational troops into South Korean soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of an South Korean embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into South Korea. Similarly, an incursion into South Korean territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into South Korea. A "North Korean or multinational military force" refers to some recognized subset of the the North Korean nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "foreign or multinational military force" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government. "Fired on", however, is defined more broadly, to include bombs, missiles, chemical or other unconventional weapons or small arms fired on non-captive South Korean troops, soil, or naval vessels (including citizens within South Korean territory), military installations, or military vehicles (e.g., ships, subs, tanks, jets), not including South Korean embassies abroad. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day (May 31 2012). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no new hostile acts). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/19/2011 5/30/2012 5/31/2012 5/31/2012 b S. Korea invasion by foreign force 164 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1055-0 0 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012? "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. The detonation must be reported prior to the second "between" date to trigger a "yes" resolution. A successful detonation of a nuclear weapon is defined as a detonation where a chain reaction occurs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction), whether that detonation occurs as a test or as an actual military attack. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no successful detonation has occurred in the relevant time window). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/9/2012 3/31/2012 4/1/2012 4/1/2012 b N. Korea detonate nuclear weapon 83 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1056-0 0 Will 1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Note that "at any point" refers to any time during which the exchange markets are open and is not restricted to a "close of day" exchange rate. This question will be resolved according exclusively to the real time data available at http://www.forexpros.com/currencies/eur-usd. closed 1/9/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Euro-dollar exchange less than 1.2 357 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1057-0 0 Will the Russian military deploy* additional Iskander missiles before 1 February 2013? Russian President Medvedev has recently threatened to deploy Iskander missiles to the Kaliningrad/Baltic region. *Note that an announcement of an intention to deploy is insufficient; for a "yes" resolution, direct reporting or official Russian government acknowledgment of an actual deployment must occur before the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Also note that this question refers to any type or variant of the Iskander/SS-26 ballistic missile. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no new/additional deployment has occurred in the relevant time window). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/9/2012 1/30/2013 1/31/2013 1/31/2013 b Russia deploy Iskander missles 388 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1058-0 0 By 1 April 2012, will Egypt officially announce its withdrawal from its 1979 peace treaty with Israel? An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Egyptian government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and offical capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the Egyptian government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 1 April 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Egypt has not withdrawn from the treaty). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/9/2012 3/31/2012 4/1/2012 4/1/2012 b Egypt withdraw from 1979 treaty 83 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1059-0 0 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? *A G8 head of government refers to the following people or their successors: Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Canada), President Nicolas Sarkozy (France), Chancellor Angela Merkel (Germany), Prime Minister Mario Monti (Italy), Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda (Japan), President Dmitry Medvedev (Russia), Prime Minister David Cameron (United Kingdom), and President Barack Obama (United States of America). An official, in person meeting is a pre-planned and publicly announced face to face meeting between heads of state. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/9/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Jong-un attend G8 meeting 82 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1060-0 0 Will Christian Wulff resign or vacate the office of President of Germany before 1 April 2012? Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved "no" if Wulff holds the position of President at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Death of Wulff constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with German succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Adminstrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/9/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 2/16/2012 a Wulff vacate president of Germany 38 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1061-0 0 Will Syria's Arab League membership be reinstated* by 31 December 2012? Syria's membership is currently suspended. *Here, "reinstated" would be any action taken to lift or nullify the suspension or otherwise restore Syria's previous standing with the League. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 31 December 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBCNews or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about an official announcement, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that no announcement was made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/9/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Syria Arab League Membership 357 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1062-0 0 Will the daily Europe Brent Crude FOB spot price per barrel be greater than or equal to $150 before 3 April 2012? Although question will be resolved "yes" if price reaches $150 threshold for any reason, the question is specifically motivated by recent events in Iran. Analysts have speculated that an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could drive oil prices up 50 percent or more from their current level (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/05/business/oil-price-would-skyrocket-if-iran-closed-the-strait.html?_r=1). Resolution will occur according to the US Energy Information Administration's data at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rbrte&f=d. The FOB spot price refers to the "Free on board" price, which is the price per barrel excluding insurance and freight (http://www.platts.com/Glossary#Free on board). Europe Brent Crude FOB is one commonly traded variant of oil that is available for delivery to European customers, much of which is sourced from Persian Gulf states. A spot price refers to the price for immediate (1-2 business days) delivery. "Before" should be interpreted to mean the daily spot price for any day prior to April 3. closed 1/9/2012 4/1/2012 4/2/2012 4/2/2012 b Crude oil exceed $150 84 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1063-0 0 Will the Taliban begin official* in-person negotiations with either the US or Afghan government by 1 April 2012? By means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 1 April 2012. Announcement of intention to begin negotiations is insufficient. To constitute official in person negotiation they must be publicly acknowledged by the Taliban and either the US or Afghan governments. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources closed 1/23/2012 3/30/2012 4/1/2012 4/1/2012 b Taliban negotiations with US or Afgan 69 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1064-0 0 Will Yousaf Raza Gillani resign, lose confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 April 2012? "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved "no" if Gillani holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Death of Gillani constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Pakistani succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/23/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Gilliani vacate PM of Pakistan 68 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1065-0 0 Will there be a significant* lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea between 23 January 2012 and 31 December 2012? "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. *A "significant lethal" confrontation is defined as one that causes at least ten combined deaths of military or government personnel. The dispute must involve government assets of at least two of the following countries (PRC, Taiwan, Vietnam, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, or the United States) in territories including the Spratly, Paracel, and Senkaku islands. The East China Sea includes the Yellow Sea. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a significant lethal confrontation, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that a lethal confrontation has not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/23/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b confrontation in S. or E. China Sea 2 343 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1066-0 0 Will Yemen's next presidential election commence before 1 April 2012? The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin before the indicated date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., election has not been held). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/23/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 2/20/2012 a Yemen hold presidential election 28 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1067-0 0 Will Traian Basescu resign, lose referendum vote, or vacate the office of President of Romania before 1 April 2012? "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day (31 December 2012). Outcome will be resolved "no" if Basescu holds the position of President at this time and has not resigned, suffered referendum defeat (where referendum directly concerns Basescu's continued status as President), or otherwise vacated office. Temporary suspension does not qualify as vacating office. Death of Basescu constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Romanian succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/23/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Basescu vacate President of Romania 68 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1068-0 0 Will the UN Security Council pass a new measure/resolution directly concerning Syria between 23 January 2012 and 31 March 2012? "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. A resolution "directly concerning" Syria means that the resolution's target must be Syria; for instance, a UNSC resolution on "the Middle East" more broadly or a passing mention of Syria in a UNSC resolution will be considered insufficient for a "yes" resolution. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a UN resolution, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that a UN resolution has not been passed). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/23/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b UN-SC Syria resolution 2 68 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1069-0 0 Before 1 April 2012, will South Korea officially* announce a policy of reducing Iranian oil imports in 2012? The announcement must be made before 1 April, and the announcement must indicate that oil imports will be eliminated or reduced some time in 2012. If the announcement is made before 1 April, question will be resolved "yes" regardless of when or whether the reduction is actually implemented. An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the South Korean government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the South Korean government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (11:59:59 EST) of the previous date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., South Korea has not changed its oil import policy). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/23/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b S. Korea reducing Iran oil import 68 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1070-0 0 Will Israel release Palestinian politician Aziz Duwaik from prison before 1 March 2012? "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (11:59:59 EST) of the previous day. Prisons, jails, labor camps, detention facilities and other forms of government detention qualify as "imprisoned." "House arrest" will generally qualify as "imprisoned." Death or hospitalization does not constitute "release": If Duwaik dies before the question deadline occurs, outcome will be resolved "no" If Duwaik is hospitalized while the question is active, this will not constitute "release" unless Duwaik has also been "freed" in the fuller legal sense (e.g., exonerated or sentence commuted). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources:BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/23/2012 2/28/2012 1/23/2012 2/29/2012 b Duwaik released from Palestinian prison 37 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1071-0 0 Will Iran and the U.S. commence official nuclear program talks* before 1 April 2012? To be "official": Talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by governments of both nations (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" nuclear program talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party (e.g., the Swiss); meetings that do not feature Iran's nuclear program as a major focus of discussion. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/30/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Iran-US nuclear talks 61 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1072-0 0 Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy before 1 April 2012? A "yes" answer to this question requires not only that the European Commission has recommended that Serbia be granted candidacy, but also that the European Council has formally named Serbia a candidate. An "official" decision would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the EU who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the EU. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "Before" should be interpreted to mean that candidate status must be announced at some point prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., Serbia has not attained candidate status). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/30/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/1/2012 a Serbia EU candidacy 2 31 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1073-0 0 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 April 2012 that an agreement has been reached to lend Hungary an additional 15+ Billion Euros? A joint IMF/EU loan qualifies as an IMF loan. For a "yes" resolution, the deal must be announced by the deadline, and reports must indicate that the loan amount totals at least 15 Billion Euros. The loan may be characterized in terms of separate installments or components, provided that it totals 15+ billion Euros. A series of separate loan announcements disseminated at various points in time would not qualify unless one of those announcements indicates a loan agreement for 15 (or more) billion Euros. An official announcement is one made by a senior organization (e.g., IMF, EU) member or spokesperson and would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the IMF who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the IMF. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., A new loan agreement has not been reached). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (11:59:59 EST) of the previous date. closed 1/30/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b IMF loan to Hungary 61 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1074-0 0 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012? *"Regaining control" is defined as a transition in territorial rule or functional authority, as reported in one or more of our core sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "gained control." From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 24 hoursmust pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 24 hours, outcome will be resolved "yes." A "yes" resolution does not require the literal wording of "regain control": Synonyms for "gain" (e.g., "take," "seize") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., faction/force has not recently seized control). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/30/2012 2/4/2012 2/5/2012 2/5/2012 b Libyan govt control of Bani Walid 6 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1075-0 0 Will a run-off be required in the 2012 Russian presidential election? The election is scheduled for 4 March 2012. A run-off will be required if no candidate wins 50% of the vote. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/30/2012 3/5/2012 3/6/2012 3/4/2012 b Putin run-off 34 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1076-0 0 Will the Iraqi government officially announce before 1 April 2012 that it has dropped all criminal charges against its VP Tareq al-Hashemi? An official announcement is one made by a senior Iraqi government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Iraqi government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the Iraqi government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of 1 April 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., charges have not been dropped). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/30/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Iraq drop charge on VP al-Hashemi 61 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1077-0 0 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt? Note: A "yes" resolution can be justified by either an official announcement from Egypt indicating that it has lifted the ban or reliable reports that any American NGO member has been permitted to leave the country. Egypt has issued a travel ban that forbids at least some U.S. citizens from leaving Egypt (see, e.g., http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2105545,00.html). The ban is targeted at approximately 10 members of what have been characterized as "pro-democracy NGOs." "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Egyptian government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the Egyptian government. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., travel ban has not been lifted). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "By" means at or prior to the end (11:59:59 pm ET) of the specified day. closed 1/30/2012 2/14/2012 2/15/2012 2/15/2012 b Egypt lift travel ban on Americans 16 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1078-0 0 Will a Japanese whaling ship enter Australia's territorial waters between 7 February 2012 and 10 April 2012? Territorial waters are defined by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea as those within at most 12 nautical miles from the baseline of a coastal state (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters). "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no Japanese whaling ship has entered Australian territorial waters). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/7/2012 4/9/2012 4/10/2012 4/10/2012 b Japanese whaling ship in Australia 63 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1080-0 0 Will the Republic of Macedonia* be a NATO member before 1 April 2013? *This question will resolve "Yes" if Macedonia is a NATO member under any name before the question end date. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from the NATO Member Countries web page (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/SID-C7CA6965-8F115522/natolive/nato_countries.htm). If nothing is reported from this source, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., the Republic of Macedonia is not a member of NATO). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/7/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Macedonia NATO membership 418 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1081-0 0 Will the Nigerian government and Boko Haram commence official talks before 31 December 2012? To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of Nigeria and Boko Haram (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/7/2012 12/29/2012 12/30/2012 12/30/2012 b Nigeria-Haram talks 327 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1082-0 0 Will William Ruto cease to be a candidate for President of Kenya before 10 April 2012? Ruto will "cease to be a candidate" if and when he publicly acknowledges the withdrawal or suspension of his candidacy (e.g., speech, press conference, press release) or if a duly authorized Kenyan electoral policymaking body deems his candidacy over (e.g., he is ineligible to run). Denial, restriction or revocation of official listing on ballot is sufficient to constitute a cessation of presidential candidacy. The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News, Reuters or the Economist (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about an active political candidate, it will be assumed that candidate remains in the race until reporting clearly indicates otherwise). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or the Economist. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/7/2012 4/8/2012 4/9/2012 4/9/2012 b Ruto vacate President of Kenya 62 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1083-0 0 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? LePen will "cease to be a candidate" if and when she publicly acknowledges the withdrawal or suspension of her candidacy (e.g., speech, press conference, press release) or if a duly authorized French electoral policymaking body deems her candidacy over (e.g., she is ineligible to run). Denial, restriction or revocation of official listing on ballot is sufficient to constitute a cessation of presidential candidacy. As of 7 February 2012, administrator regards LePen as an active candidate. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., LePen remains an active and eligible candidate). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/7/2012 4/8/2012 4/9/2012 4/9/2012 b LaPen vacate President of France 62 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1085-0 0 Between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012, will the UN Security Council announce any reduction of its peacekeeping force in Haiti? An official announcement is one made by a senior UNSC member or spokesperson and would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the UNSC who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no peace keeping force reduction has been announced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 2/21/2012 3/31/2012 4/1/2012 4/1/2012 b UN-SC reduction from Haiti 40 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1086-0 0 Will Mohamed Waheed Hussain Manik resign or otherwise vacate the office of President of Maldives before 10 April 2012? Outcome will be resolved "no" if Manik holds the position of President at this time and has not resigned or otherwise vacated office. Temporary suspension does not qualify as vacating office. Death of Manik constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Maldives succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day closed 2/21/2012 4/8/2012 4/9/2012 4/9/2012 b Manik vacate President of Maldives 48 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1087-0 0 Will Amr Moussa win the next Egyptian presidential election? The election is scheduled for May 2012, but the question will remain open until results are definitively announced by one of the below sources. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about elections, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate a winner has not been formally announced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/21/2012 5/30/2012 5/31/2012 5/29/2012 b Moussa win Egypt presidental election 98 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1088-0 0 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012? Japan's next parliamentary election is currently scheduled for 30 August 2013. The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin before the indicated date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., no parliamentary election has been held). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/21/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Japan hold parliament elections 39 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1089-0 0 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? The detonation must be reported prior to 1 January to trigger a "yes" resolution. A successful detonation of a nuclear device is defined as a detonation where a chain reaction occurs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction), whether that detonation occurs as a test explosion or as an actual military attack. Note that computer simulations or controlled chain reactions within nuclear reactors do not constitute detonation of nuclear devices, and so-called "dirty" bombs do not constitute nuclear devices. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no successful detonation has occurred in the relevant time window). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/21/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Iran detonate nuclear device 314 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1090-0 0 Before 13 April 2012, will the Turkish government officially announce that the Turkish ambassador to France has been recalled? An official announcement is one made by a senior Turkish government member or spokesperson and would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Turkish government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the Turkish government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. <br>Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., an "official" announcement has not been made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/21/2012 4/11/2012 4/12/2012 4/12/2012 b Turkey recall ambassador to France 51 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1091-0 0 Will Standard and Poor's downgrade Japan's Foreign Long Term credit rating at any point between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Japan's Foreign Long-term credit rating is AA- as of 21 February 2012. Question will be resolved solely according to data at S&P: http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/entity-ratings/en/us/?sectorCode=SOV&entityID=269770<br> closed 2/21/2012 3/31/2012 4/1/2012 4/1/2012 b S&P downgrade Japan 40 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1092-0 0 Will Myanmar release at least 100 more political prisoners between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? Outcome will be resolved based solely on reporting at Amnesty International (http://www.amnesty.org). If nothing is reported in this source, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 2/21/2012 3/31/2012 4/1/2012 4/1/2012 b Myanmar release 100 political prisoners 40 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1093-0 0 Will at least one Taliban representative be appointed to serve as a minister in the Afghan government before 1 January 2013? A "Taliban representative" is someone widely recognized (e.g., by BBC and/or Reuters) as being a representative or member of the Taliban's military or political apparatus; generally speaking, those classified as Taliban "sympathizers" or "affiliates" will not be considered Taliban representatives. An official announcement of this appointment is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Afghan Government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete actions of the Afghan government. This formal announcement must confirm that a representative of the Taliban has been appointed as a minister in the Afghan government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. A confirmation of this appointment that does not come from an official source (cited above) IS NOT sufficient for a positive resolution. The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for no reporting about a Taliban representative being appointed as a minister in the afghan government, it will be inferred that the event did not occur). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day (31 December 2012). closed 2/21/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Taliban rep in Afgan govt 314 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1094-0 0 Will Zimbabwe commence a presidential election before 1 January 2013? The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin before the indicated date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., election has not been held). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/21/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Zimbabwe hold presidential elections 314 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1095-0 0 Will there be a significant* outbreak of H5N1 in China in 2012? A "significant" outbreak of H5N1 is defined as at least 20 individuals reported as being infected with H5N1 or at least 5 fatalities attributed to H5N1. "In 2012" should be interpreted to mean calendar-year 2012, as defined in statistics maintained by the Global Public Health Information Network ("GPHIN"). Outcome will be resolved based on WHO data linked from the GPHIN website at http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/h5n1/index-eng.php. Given possible delays in WHO reporting, administrator reserves the right to hold question resolution for up to one month following calendar year 2012. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/21/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b H5N1 outbreak in China 314 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1096-0 0 Will a civil war break out in Syria between 21 February 2012 and 1 April 2012? A civil war is defined as a conflict between agents of/claimants to a state and (an) organized, non-state group(s). In addition to meeting these criteria, to resolve yes, BOTH Reuters and the BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/) must characterize the conflict as a "civil war," and there must be at least 200 battle deaths during the question window. Of these 200 at least 100 must be on the government side while the other 100 must from any combination of opposition forces (e.g. insurgents). Whether deaths endured by external foreign actors in their engagement in a Syrian civil war count towards these numbers will be determined by the administrators in consultation with subject matter experts. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 2/21/2012 3/31/2012 4/1/2012 4/1/2012 b Syrian civil war outbreak 40 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1097-0 0 Will Tunisia officially announce an extension of its current state of emergency before 1 April 2012? The state of emergency in Tunisia was extended from 31 December 2011 until 30 March 2012 by Interim President Marzouki. "Officially" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Tunisian government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the Tunisian government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day (31 March 2012). Outcome will be resolved "yes" if the current state of emergency is extended or a new state of emergency is declared. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., no announcement about an extension is made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 3/5/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 a Tunisia extend state of emergency 26 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1098-0 0 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Syria between 6 March 2012 and 31 December 2012? Only an unwelcomed incursion of non-Syrian troops into Syrian soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of a Syrian embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Syria. Similarly, an incursion into Syrian territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Syria. A "foreign or multinational military force" refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "military force" excludes military advisors, as well as quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "foreign or multinational military force" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government. "Fired on", however, is defined more broadly, to include bombs, missiles, chemical or other unconventional weapons or small arms fired on non-captive Syrian troops, soil, or naval vessels (including citizens within Syrian territory), military installations, or military vehicles (e.g., ships, subs, tanks, planes), not including Syrian embassies abroad. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no new hostile acts). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 3/5/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 10/3/2012 a Syria invasion by foreign force 212 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1099-0 0 Before 1 April 2012, will Al-Saadi Gaddafi be extradited to Libya? For a yes resolution, reports of Al-Saadi Gaddafi's extradition must indicate that he is en route to Libya or has arrived there. An announcement of the intent to extradite Al-Saadi Gaddafi is not sufficient for a Yes resolution. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com ). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., Al-Saadi Gaddafi has not been extradited). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/5/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Gaddafi extradition to Libya 26 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1100-0 0 Will the Colombian government and FARC commence official talks before 1 January 2013? To be"official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of Colombia and FARC (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute"official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e.,"official" talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/5/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 10/17/2012 a Columbia-FARC talks 226 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1102-0 0 Will Ireland ratify the European Fiscal Compact in a referendum vote before 1 October 2012? The European Fiscal Compact is formally known as the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union. Question will resolve as "No" if a referendum vote is not held or if Irish vote(s) have failed to ratify the European Fiscal Compact before 1 October. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the"status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. no referendum has ratified the European Fiscal Compact). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void."Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/5/2012 9/29/2012 5/31/2012 6/1/2012 a Ireland ratify Euro Fiscal Compact 88 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1103-0 0 Before 1 April 2012, will the Sudan and South Sudan governments officially announce an agreement on oil transit fees? An official announcement is one made by senior Sudan and South Sudan government members or spokespersons. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Sudan/South Sudan government(s) who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of their government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Both Sudan and South Sudan must publicly acknowledge the agreement. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources:BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the"status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that Sudan and South Sudan have not reached an agreement). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void."Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/5/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Sudan - S. Sudan oil transit fees 26 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1104-0 0 Will Yemeni government forces regain control of the towns of Jaar and Zinjibar from Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) before 1 April 2012? "Yemeni government forces" should be interpreted broadly to mean armed forces (to include militias) generally regarded as allied with or under the control/influence of the Yemeni government. The AQAP militants currently controlling these towns are sometimes identified as (members of) Ansar al-Sharia, an AQAP-affiliated group. "Regaining control" is defined as a transition in territorial rule or functional authority, as reported in one or more of our core sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "gained control." From the time that a new"control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 24 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 24 hours, outcome will be resolved "yes." A "yes" resolution does not require the literal wording of"regain control": Synonyms for"gain" (e.g.,"take," "seize") and "control" (e.g.,"rule") are generally acceptable. If nothing is reported in these sources, then the"status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., faction/force has not recently seized control). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void."Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/5/2012 3/30/2012 3/31/2012 3/31/2012 b Yemen control from AQAP 26 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1105-0 0 Will Standard and Poor's downgrade the United Kingdom's Foreign Long Term credit rating at any point between 18 June 2012 and 1 April 2013? "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (11:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. The United Kingdom's Foreign Long-term credit rating is AAA as of 18 June 2012. Question will be resolved solely according to data at S&P: http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/entity-ratings/en/us/?entityID=269777Œ_orCode=SOV closed 6/18/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b S&P downgrade of UK credit 286 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1106-0 0 Will Kim Jong-un resign or otherwise vacate the office of Supreme Leader of North Korea before 1 April 2013? Death of Kim Jong-un constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with North Korean succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 6/18/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Kim Jong-un vacate Supreme Leader 286 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1109-0 0 Will any country officially announce its intention to withdraw* from the Eurozone before 1 April 2013? Note: If the EU officially expels a country, this will be treated as equivalent to the country announcing its intent to withdraw: that is, the fundamental question is whether a formal announcement will be made that officially confirms/dictates a country's departure from the eurozone. An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no country has announced their intention to withdraw form the Eurozone). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 6/18/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Any country withdraw from Eurozone 286 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1114-0 0 Will Raja Pervez Ashraf resign or otherwise vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 April 2013? Outcome will be resolved "no" if Raja Pervez Ashraf holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or otherwise vacated office. Death of Ashraf constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Pakistani succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 6/25/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/24/2013 a Ashraf vacate PM of Pakistan 272 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1115-0 0 Will the UN Security Council pass a new resolution before 1 April 2013 that supports military intervention* in Mali? Any UNSC-passed resolution that explicitly condones, supports, or acknowledges the need for military action in Mali (that is not explicitly and exclusively humanitarian) will be treated as a resolution that supports military intervention in Mali. Official UNSC press statements or announcements do not constitute resolutions. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a UN resolution, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that a UN resolution has not been passed). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. äóìBeforeäó� should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 6/25/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 12/20/2012 a UN-SC military intervention in Mali 178 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1116-0 0 Will Libya commence legislative elections before 8 July 2012? The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin before the indicated date. ξOutcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources:ξBBCξNews or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ξorξhttp://www.reuters.com/ξorξhttp://www.economist.com).ξ If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., elections have not commenced).ξξAdministratorξreserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g.,ξCIAξWorld Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting fromξBBCξNews, Reuters, or Economist Online. ξIn cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty,ξadministratorξmay refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 6/25/2012 7/6/2012 7/7/2012 7/6/2012 a Libya commence elections 11 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1117-0 0 Will Fayez al-Tarawneh resign or otherwise vacate the office of Prime Minister of Jordan before 1 January 2013? Outcome will be resolved "no" if Fayez al-Tarawneh holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or otherwise vacated office. Death of Fayez al-Tarawneh constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Jordan succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the äóìstatus quoäó� outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 6/25/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 10/9/2012 a al-Tarawneh vacate PM of Jordan 106 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1120-0 0 Will Spanish government generic 10-year bond yields equal or exceed 7% at any point before 1 September 2012? Note that "at any point" refers to any time during which the bond markets are open and is not restricted to a "close of day" yield. This question will be resolved according to the real time data available at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., Financial Times, BBC News). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at any point prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/16/2012 8/30/2012 8/31/2012 7/18/2012 a Spain 10yr bond exceed 7% 2 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1121-0 0 Will the Palestinian group Islamic Jihad significantly violate its cease-fire with Israel before 30 September 2012? A significant violation in the cease fire shall be constituted by any attack(s) directed by Islamic Jihad towards Israeli soil, civilians, or military members that results in at least five Israeli deaths within a 24 hour period. The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about aggressive action, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the cease-fire is still in place). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at any point prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/16/2012 9/28/2012 9/29/2012 10/1/2012 b Islamic Jihad violate cease-fire 77 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1123-0 0 Will the Romanian people approve the removal of Traian Basescu from the office of President of Romania in a referendum vote before 1 August 2012? Outcome will be resolved based on reporting concerning upcoming referendum vote(s) from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. a referendum has not approved the removal of Traian Basescu). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at any point prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/16/2012 7/30/2012 7/31/2012 7/31/2012 b Romania remove President Basescu 15 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1124-0 0 Will Israel officially announce that it recognizes the Armenian genocide before 1 April 2013? An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., an "official" announcement has not been made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/16/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Israel recognize Armenian genocide 258 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1127-0 0 Will Moody's issue a new downgrade on the long-term ratings for any of the eight major French banks between 30 July 2012 and 31 December 2012? Between should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. "The eight major French banks" are defined as the following eight banks: <br/>Credit Agricole (CA), BNP Paribas, Societe Generale, Caisse d'Epargne (CE), Banque Populaire (BP), Credit Mutuel, La Banque Postale, LCL. <br/> Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from the Moody's news page (http://www.moodys.com/newsandevents/topics/euro-area-sovereign-crisis-affected-credits/-/007022/-/-/0/0/-/0/-/-/en/global/rr), or on one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting in the primary source or listed news outlets. If nothing is reported, then the status quo is assumed (Moody's did not cut the relevant long-term ratings.) In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 7/30/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Moody downgrade French banks 154 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1128-0 0 Will Iran blockade the Strait of Hormuz before 1 January 2014? Both of the following "core" sources must report that Iran has blockaded the Strait of Hormuz: BBC News and Reuters (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ and http://www.reuters.com).
If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Iran has not blockaded the Strait of Hormuz).
In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
"Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/30/2012 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 b Iran blockade Strait of Hormuz 519 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1129-1 1 Will Syria use chemical or biological weapons before 1 January 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." *A "substantial" lethal confrontation is defined as one that causes at least 100 combined deaths of officially acknowledged Syrian or foreign or multinational military forces, with at least ten deaths occurring on each side. For our purposes, a chemical weapon will be defined as a device that uses chemicals that inflict death or harm to at least one human being, and a biological weapon will be defined as the use of biological toxins or infectious agents to kill or incapacitate at least one human being. A chemical or biological weapons test does not constitute "use" of a biological or chemical weapon. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a significant lethal confrontation, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that a lethal confrontation has not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 7/30/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 NA Syria uses weapons NA 2 If there is a substantial lethal confrontation between Syrian forces and a foreign or multinational military force before 1 January 2013? : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1129-2 2 Will Syria use chemical or biological weapons before 1 January 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." *A "substantial" lethal confrontation is defined as one that causes at least 100 combined deaths of officially acknowledged Syrian or foreign or multinational military forces, with at least ten deaths occurring on each side. For our purposes, a chemical weapon will be defined as a device that uses chemicals that inflict death or harm to at least one human being, and a biological weapon will be defined as the use of biological toxins or infectious agents to kill or incapacitate at least one human being. A chemical or biological weapons test does not constitute "use" of a biological or chemical weapon. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a significant lethal confrontation, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that a lethal confrontation has not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/30/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Syria uses weapons 154 2 If there is not a substantial lethal confrontation between Syrian forces and a foreign or multinational military force before 1 January 2013? : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1130-0 0 Will Moody's issue a new downgrade of the long term debt rating of the Government of Germany between 30 July 2012 and 31 March 2013? Between should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from Moody's at http://www.moodys.com/credit-ratings/Germany-Government-of-credit-rating-333700. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 7/30/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Moody downgrade Germany 244 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1131-0 0 Will Victor Ponta resign or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Romania before 1 November 2012? Outcome will be resolved "no" if Ponta holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or otherwise vacated office. Temporary suspension does not qualify as vacating office. Death of Ponta constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Romanian succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/30/2012 10/30/2012 10/31/2012 10/31/2012 b Ponta vacate PM of Romania 93 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1132-1 1 Will al-Shabaab commence official talks with the Somali government before 1 January 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Therefore, as IARPA noted on 9-11-12, answer option A is voided because Sharif Sheikh Ahmed did NOT win the election. We will not be scoring any forecasts for answer option A.
To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of Somalia and al-Shabaab (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; or indirect talks mediated by some third party. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. <br/>The election is scheduled for August 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about elections, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate a winner has not been formally announced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 7/30/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 NA al-Shabaab talks w/ Somali Govt NA 2 If Sharif Sheikh Ahmed wins re-election as President of Somalia? : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1132-2 2 Will al-Shabaab commence official talks with the Somali government before 1 January 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Therefore, as IARPA noted on 9-11-12, answer option A is voided because Sharif Sheikh Ahmed did NOT win the election. We will not be scoring any forecasts for answer option A.
To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of Somalia and al-Shabaab (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; or indirect talks mediated by some third party. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. <br/>The election is scheduled for August 2012. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about elections, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate a winner has not been formally announced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/30/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b al-Shabaab talks w/ Somali Govt 154 2 If Sharif Sheikh Ahmed does not win re-election as President of Somalia? : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1133-0 0 Will Israel officially establish a date for early elections before 6 November 2012? Establishment will be considered official when the Israeli parliament has been dissolved and a date for early elections has been legally scheduled. Note that the question asks if the establishment/scheduling itself will occur before 6 November 2012 and does not ask about the actual date that the elections are slated to occur. The following would not constitute an "official" establishment of date: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, threats, offhand remarks, announced intentions by government figures without dissolution of parliament and the legal establishment of an election date, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., early elections have not been scheduled). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/13/2012 11/4/2012 11/5/2012 10/15/2012 a Israel early elections 63 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1135-0 0 Will the number of registered Syrian conflict refugees reported by the UNHCR exceed 250,000 at any point before 1 April 2013? This question will be resolved exclusively according to the data found at the website for the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), located at http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/regional.php. To constitute evidence for a yes resolution data must be posted to the aforementioned website before 1 April 2013. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/13/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 10/8/2012 a Syrian refugees exceed 250000 56 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1136-0 0 Will Kuwait commence parliamentary elections before 1 October 2012? The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin inside Kuwait before the indicated date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., elections have not commenced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/13/2012 9/29/2012 9/30/2012 10/1/2012 b Kuwait parlimentary elections 49 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1137-0 0 Will the United Kingdom's Liberal Democrats and Conservatives remain in a coalition through 1 April 2013? The Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives will only be considered to no longer be in coalition after an official announcement of dissolution that indicates that the two parties are no longer coalition partners. An official announcement is one made by a party figure or spokesperson from either of the political parties. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Liberal Democrat or Conservative party who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete actions of the Liberal Democrat or Conservative party. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the Liberal Democrats and Conservatives remain coalition partners). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Through" should be interpreted to mean until the beginning (Midnight ET) of the following day. closed 8/13/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 a UK Lib Dems and Conservatives coalition 230 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1138-1 1 Will the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) commence official bilateral talks before 1 August 2013? *Only official talks that occur (or do not occur) after the election will be scored. This question can only be scored if the next presidential election occurs before 1 August 2013; otherwise, this question will be voided. To be &quot;official&quot;, talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea (Note: talks need to be bilateral.). The following would not constitute &quot;official&quot; talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. The election is scheduled for 19 December 2012, but the conditions will remain open until results are definitively announced by one of the below sources. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the &quot;status quo&quot; outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., &quot;official&quot; talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. &quot;Before&quot; should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/13/2012 6/12/2013 7/31/2013 5/8/2013 a North/South Korea talks 268 2 If Park Geun-hye wins the next South Korean Presidential election before official talks commence? : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1138-2 2 Will the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) and the Republic of Korea (South Korea) commence official bilateral talks before 1 August 2013? *Only official talks that occur (or do not occur) after the election will be scored. This question can only be scored if the next presidential election occurs before 1 August 2013; otherwise, this question will be voided. To be &quot;official&quot;, talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and the Republic of Korea (Note: talks need to be bilateral.). The following would not constitute &quot;official&quot; talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. The election is scheduled for 19 December 2012, but the conditions will remain open until results are definitively announced by one of the below sources. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the &quot;status quo&quot; outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., &quot;official&quot; talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. &quot;Before&quot; should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/13/2012 6/12/2013 7/31/2013 NA North/South Korea talks NA 2 If Park Geun-hye does not win the next South Korean Presidential election before official talks commence : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1139-0 0 Will any government force gain control of the Somali town of Kismayo before 1 November 2012? Government force means any official military force of any nation-state or any official multinational military force (e.g. African Union forces). "Gain control" is defined as a transition in territorial rule or functional authority, as reported in one or more of our core sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that government forces have "gained control." From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 48 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 48 hours, outcome will be resolved "yes." A "yes" resolution does not require the literal wording of "gain control": Synonyms for "gain" (e.g., "take," "seize") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., government forces have not recently seized control). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/27/2012 10/30/2012 10/31/2012 10/4/2012 a Govt control of Kismayo Somalia 38 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1140-0 0 Will at least one individual be convicted of the July 2011 killing of Iranian nuclear physicist Darioush Rezaeinejad by an Iranian court of law before 1 January 2013? On 23 July 2012, suspects in the July 2011 killing of Iranian nuclear physicist, Darioush Rezaeinejad were arrested by the Iranian government according to Iranian Intelligence Minister Heidar Moslehi. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., no individuals were convicted by an Iranian court of law for this action). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/27/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Iran convict Rezaeinejad 126 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1142-0 0 Will a foreign or multinational military force invade, enter or significantly* fire on Iran before 21 January 2013? Only an unwelcomed incursion of non-Iranian troops into Iranian soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of an Iranian embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Iran. Similarly, an incursion into Iranian territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Iran. A "foreign or multinational military force" refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "foreign or multinational military force" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government. *"Significantly fired on", however, is defined more broadly, to include bombs, missiles, chemical or other unconventional weapons or small arms fired on non-captive Iranian troops, soil, or naval vessels (including citizens within Iranian territory), military installations, or military vehicles (e.g., ships, subs, tanks, jets), such that at least 10 Iranians are killed. Iranian embassies abroad do not constitute Iran. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no new hostile acts). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 8/27/2012 1/19/2013 1/20/2013 1/20/2013 b Iran invasion by foreign force 146 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1143-1 1 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 January 2013 that an agreement has been reached to lend Egypt at least 4 billion USD? For a "yes" resolution, the approval must be announced before the deadline, and reports must indicate that the loan amount totals at least 4 Billion USD (or equivilent currency). The loan may be characterized in terms of separate installments or components, provided that it totals at least 4 Billion USD. A series of separate loan announcements disseminated at various points in time would not qualify unless one of those announcements indicates a loan agreement for 4 (or more) billion dollars. An official announcement is one made by a senior organization (e.g., IMF, EU) member or spokesperson and would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the IMF who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the IMF. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Note that "at any point" refers to any time during which the Index is open and is not restricted to a "close of trading day" level. "Beforehand" means that the condition must occur before the outcome (i.e. the currency price movement must occur before the IMF announcement in order for condition "a" to obtain). The conditions will be resolved according to the real time data available at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EGPUSD:CUR. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., A new loan agreement of 4+ billion USD has not been reached). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 EST) of the previous date. closed 8/27/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b IMF Egypt loan 126 2 If the Egyptian pound to US dollar exchange rate falls below .16 USD at any point beforehand? : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1143-2 2 Will the IMF officially announce before 1 January 2013 that an agreement has been reached to lend Egypt at least 4 billion USD? For a "yes" resolution, the approval must be announced before the deadline, and reports must indicate that the loan amount totals at least 4 Billion USD (or equivilent currency). The loan may be characterized in terms of separate installments or components, provided that it totals at least 4 Billion USD. A series of separate loan announcements disseminated at various points in time would not qualify unless one of those announcements indicates a loan agreement for 4 (or more) billion dollars. An official announcement is one made by a senior organization (e.g., IMF, EU) member or spokesperson and would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the IMF who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the IMF. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Note that "at any point" refers to any time during which the Index is open and is not restricted to a "close of trading day" level. "Beforehand" means that the condition must occur before the outcome (i.e. the currency price movement must occur before the IMF announcement in order for condition "a" to obtain). The conditions will be resolved according to the real time data available at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EGPUSD:CUR. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., A new loan agreement of 4+ billion USD has not been reached). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 EST) of the previous date. voided 8/27/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 NA IMF Egypt loan NA 2 If the Egyptian pound to US dollar exchange rate does not fall below .16 USD at any point beforehand? : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1144-1 1 Will Mariano Rajoy resign or otherwise vacate the office of Prime Minister of Spain before 1 February 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Outcome will be resolved "no" if Rajoy holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Death of Rajoy constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Spanish succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation as of the specific indicated date. Conditions will be resolved according to http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/entity-ratings/en/us/?entityID=269886Œ_orCode=SOV. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/10/2012 1/30/2013 1/31/2013 1/31/2013 b Rajoy vacate Spain PM 143 2 If S&P lowers its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Kingdom of Spain beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1144-2 2 Will Mariano Rajoy resign or otherwise vacate the office of Prime Minister of Spain before 1 February 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Outcome will be resolved "no" if Rajoy holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or suffered electoral/confidence vote defeat. Death of Rajoy constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Spanish succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation as of the specific indicated date. Conditions will be resolved according to http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/entity-ratings/en/us/?entityID=269886Œ_orCode=SOV. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 9/10/2012 1/30/2013 1/31/2013 NA Rajoy vacate Spain PM NA 2 If S&P does not lower its long-term sovereign credit rating for the Kingdom of Spain beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1145-1 1 Will the Yuan to Dollar exchange rate on 31 December 2012 be more than 5% different than the 31 August 2012 exchange rate? ANNOUNCEMENT FROM IARPA ON 9-13: "IFPID #1145 - Yuan to Dollar Exchange Rate - Condition "a" has been realized as the true condition and will be the only scored condition for this IFP." No further forecasts are required for answer option b.<br/>The 31 August 2012 closing exchange rate was 6.3486 Yuan to 1 USD. In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank buys financial assets to inject a pre-determined quantity of money into the economy" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#QE1.2C_QE2.2C_and_QE3. An official announcement of QE3 would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Federal Reserve Board who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the Fed has not officially announced QE3). Outcome will be resolved according to the last closing value found at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR on or before 31 December 2012. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous date. closed 9/10/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Yuan change >5% 112 2 If, before 31 December 2012, the Federal Reserve Board officially announces a third round of Quantitative Easing (QE3) : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1145-2 2 Will the Yuan to Dollar exchange rate on 31 December 2012 be more than 5% different than the 31 August 2012 exchange rate? ANNOUNCEMENT FROM IARPA ON 9-13: "IFPID #1145 - Yuan to Dollar Exchange Rate - Condition "a" has been realized as the true condition and will be the only scored condition for this IFP." No further forecasts are required for answer option b.<br/>The 31 August 2012 closing exchange rate was 6.3486 Yuan to 1 USD. In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Quantitative easing (QE) is an unconventional monetary policy used by central banks to stimulate the national economy when conventional monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank buys financial assets to inject a pre-determined quantity of money into the economy" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantitative_easing#QE1.2C_QE2.2C_and_QE3. An official announcement of QE3 would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Federal Reserve Board who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the Fed has not officially announced QE3). Outcome will be resolved according to the last closing value found at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDCNY:CUR on or before 31 December 2012. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous date. voided 9/10/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 NA Yuan change >5% NA 2 If, before 31 December 2012, the Federal Reserve Board does not officially announce QE3 : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1146-0 0 Will the World Trade Organization (WTO) rule in favor of the rare earth metals complaint filed by the European Union against China before 31 December 2013? The rare earth metals complaint refers to WTO dispute settlement case DS432. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., The WTO has issued no ruling).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous date. closed 9/10/2012 12/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/30/2013 12/30/2013 b WTO metals complaint btw EU & China 476 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1147-0 0 Before 1 April 2013, will the Egyptian government officially announce it has started construction of a nuclear power plant at Dabaa? An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying previous actions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., an "official" announcement has not been made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/10/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Egypt nuclear power plant 202 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1149-0 0 Will the sentence of any of the three members of the band Pussy Riot who were convicted of hooliganism be reduced, nullified, or suspended before 1 December 2012? The means of reduction, nullification, or suspension has no bearing on the question's resolution (i.e., whether a sentence is altered by an appellate court or by presidential edict makes no difference). If the sentence of any of the three convicted band members Nadezhda Tolokonnikova, Maria Alyokhina, and Yekaterina Samutsevich is reduced, nullified, or suspended the question will resolve Yes, even if the sentences of the other band members remain unchanged. Any legal order mandating a re-trial constitutes a nullification of a sentence. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the sentences of the three convicted members stand unchanged). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/10/2012 11/29/2012 11/30/2012 10/9/2012 a Pussy Riot sentences reduced 29 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1150-0 0 Will Sudan and South Sudan sign a border security agreement before 1 December 2012? A border security agreement is any bilateral or multilateral agreement that explicitly mentions border security between the two nations and is signed after the date of the question opening. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no agreement has been signed). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/25/2012 11/29/2012 11/30/2012 9/27/2012 a Sudan border security agreement 2 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1151-1 1 Will Japan and North Korea announce an agreement to establish formal diplomatic relations before 1 April 2013? Only remains returned after the start of this question will count towards the realization of conditions. In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. The announcement must specify mutual intent to open embassies, appoint ambassadors, or undertake similar diplomatic initiatives typical of the establishment of formal relations between the two countries. Continuation of the current working discussions or announcements of intent to open an "interest section" at another country's embassy does not constitute establishment of formal diplomatic relations. Outcome and conditions will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., an "official" announcement has not been made; remains have not been returned). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 9/25/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Japan/NKorea agreement NA 2 If North Korea returns the remains of any additional Japanese who died in North Korea in World War II beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1151-2 2 Will Japan and North Korea announce an agreement to establish formal diplomatic relations before 1 April 2013? Only remains returned after the start of this question will count towards the realization of conditions. In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. The announcement must specify mutual intent to open embassies, appoint ambassadors, or undertake similar diplomatic initiatives typical of the establishment of formal relations between the two countries. Continuation of the current working discussions or announcements of intent to open an "interest section" at another country's embassy does not constitute establishment of formal diplomatic relations. Outcome and conditions will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., an "official" announcement has not been made; remains have not been returned). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/25/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Japan/NKorea agreement 187 2 If North Korea does not return the remains of any additional Japanese who died in North Korea in World War II beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1152-0 0 Will the Vice President of Iraq, Tariq al-Hashimi's, death sentence be overturned before 1 November 2012? Overturned should be taken to mean any legal action or ruling that results in his current sentence being changed to anything other than a death sentence. Finite or indefinite postponement of his execution or death sentence does not constitute as having been overturned. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., his sentence has not been overturned). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/25/2012 10/30/2012 10/31/2012 10/31/2012 b Overturn al-Hashimi death sentence 36 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1153-0 0 Before 1 December 2012, will Joseph Kony be *captured by a Ugandan, foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force? *Captured means taken into official custody alive. A "Ugandan, foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force" refers to some recognized subset of Uganda's, another nation's (or multinational coalition's or intergovernmental organization's) official military (e.g. African Union) or law enforcement (e.g. INTERPOL) personnel. This definition of "military/law enforcement force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force" would be capture attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Kony has not been captured). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/25/2012 11/29/2012 11/30/2012 11/30/2012 b Kony capture by Uganda or intl force 66 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1154-1 1 Before 1 April 2013 will the North Korean government officially announce it has invited UN nuclear inspectors to visit the country? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "UN nuclear inspectors" includes but is not limited to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., an "official" announcement has not been made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 9/25/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA NKorea nuke inspection NA 2 If the United States officially announces it has resumed its program to provide food aid to North Korea beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1154-2 2 Before 1 April 2013 will the North Korean government officially announce it has invited UN nuclear inspectors to visit the country? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "UN nuclear inspectors" includes but is not limited to International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., an "official" announcement has not been made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/25/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b NKorea nuke inspection 187 2 If the United States does NOT officially announce it has resumed its program to provide food aid to North Korea beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1156-1 1 Will the new leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shinzo Abe be declared Prime Minister of Japan before 1 October 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Declared" should be interpreted to mean a formal, cooperative announcement by the Japanese government. A "snap" election is one that commences before the regularly scheduled election date of 30 August 2013.
The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin before the indicated date. The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Shinzo Abe has not been declared Prime Minister of Japan).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/9/2012 9/29/2013 9/30/2013 12/25/2012 a Japan PM Abe 77 2 If Japan commences snap parliamentary elections before 1 April 2013 : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1156-2 2 Will the new leader of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) Shinzo Abe be declared Prime Minister of Japan before 1 October 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Declared" should be interpreted to mean a formal, cooperative announcement by the Japanese government. A "snap" election is one that commences before the regularly scheduled election date of 30 August 2013.
The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin before the indicated date. The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Shinzo Abe has not been declared Prime Minister of Japan).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 10/9/2012 9/29/2013 9/30/2013 NA Japan PM Abe NA 2 If Japan does not commence snap parliamentary elections before 1 April 2013 : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1158-1 1 Will the Malian government and Ansar Dine commence official talks before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Malian government and Ansar Dine (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Any UNSC-passed resolution that explicitly condones, supports, or acknowledges the need for military action in Mali (that is not explicitly and exclusively humanitarian) will be treated as a resolution that supports military intervention in Mali. Official UNSC press statements or announcements do not constitute resolutions. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 10/9/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Mali/Ansar Dine talks NA 2 If the UN Security Council passes a new resolution that supports military intervention in Mali beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1158-2 2 Will the Malian government and Ansar Dine commence official talks before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Malian government and Ansar Dine (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Any UNSC-passed resolution that explicitly condones, supports, or acknowledges the need for military action in Mali (that is not explicitly and exclusively humanitarian) will be treated as a resolution that supports military intervention in Mali. Official UNSC press statements or announcements do not constitute resolutions. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/9/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 12/4/2012 a Mali/Ansar Dine talks 56 2 If the UN Security Council does not pass a new resolution that supports military intervention in Mali beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1159-0 0 Will either the French or Swiss inquiries find elevated levels* of polonium in the remains of Yasser Arafat's body? In July, researchers from Lausanne University's Institute of Radiation Physics announced they had found elevated levels of polonium-210 on Arafat's belongings. On August 23, Arafat's widow granted permission to test Arafat's body.
Results are expected before the end of 2012, but the question will remain open until official findings are released. In order to resolve as "yes," results must be official (i.e. not "preliminary" or "leaked" results) and officially descend from the Swiss and French efforts scheduled to commence in 2012. *"Elevated levels" means that the highest level of polonium as measured in millibecquerels (mBq) in the remains of any part of Arafat's body are at least twice the highest level that researchers find in any control item/remains.
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one of the following sources: SwissInfo.ch, BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. If nothing is reported from these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g. no conclusive evidence of elevated polonium levels). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from SwissInfo.ch, BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/9/2012 11/5/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 11/5/2013 a Arafat polonium 392 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1160-0 0 Will a significant* Turkish military force invade or enter Syria between 9 October 2012 and 30 November 2012? *A significant Turkish military force is one comprised of at least 1,000 Turkish soldiers. Only an unwelcomed incursion of Turkish troops into Syrian soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered."An invasion or entry of a Syria embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Syria.Similarly, an incursion into Syrian territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Syria.A "Turkish military force" refers to some recognized subset of the Turkish nation's official military.This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "foreign or multinational military force" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government."Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Turkey has not invaded or entered Syria).Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/9/2012 11/29/2012 11/30/2012 11/30/2012 b Turkish force enter Syria 52 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1161-0 0 Will the IMF officially announce sanctions on Argentina before 1 February 2013 if the International Monetary Fund (IMF) officially announces that Argentina has failed to provide the IMF with sufficient growth and inflation data before 20 December 2012? An official announcement is one made by a senior member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the IMF who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the IMF. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. If the IMF provides no public ruling on the sufficiency of the data provided by Argentina before 20 December 2012 then the question will voided as the condition was not realized. "Sanctions" should be interpreted to mean a penalty officially imposed by the IMF which may include, but not limited to, the loss of voting rights and/or expulsion from the organization. In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Argentina has provided the IMF with sufficient growth and inflation data). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/23/2012 1/30/2013 1/31/2013 1/31/2013 b IMF Argentina Sanctions 100 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1162-1 1 Will the Canadian consulate in Tehran officially re-open at any time before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The Canadian Consulate in Tehran (Iran) will be considered re-opened if the Canadian consulate is staffed with personnel and resumes normal business in Tehran. This must be verified by an official announcement. Announcement of intention of the Canadian government to reopen the consulate in Tehran is insufficient for positive resolution. Anonymous statements by "officials not authorized to speak" will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Canadian Government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete opening/closing of the Canadian consulate in Tehran. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. A UN nuclear inspector will only be considered to have visited the Parchin site if it is reported that they have physically visited the site in person; Iran "allowing" an inspection of the Parchin site or announcement of a planned future inspection is not sufficient for a "Yes" realization of the condition. IAEA inspectors are considered UN nuclear inspectors for the purpose of this question. Temporary suspension does not qualify as vacating office. Death of Assad constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Syria succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Canada has not officially re-opened their Tehran consulate). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 10/23/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Canada Consulate in Iran NA 2 If a UN nuclear inspector visits Iran : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1162-2 2 Will the Canadian consulate in Tehran officially re-open at any time before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The Canadian Consulate in Tehran (Iran) will be considered re-opened if the Canadian consulate is staffed with personnel and resumes normal business in Tehran. This must be verified by an official announcement. Announcement of intention of the Canadian government to reopen the consulate in Tehran is insufficient for positive resolution. Anonymous statements by "officials not authorized to speak" will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Canadian Government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete opening/closing of the Canadian consulate in Tehran. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. A UN nuclear inspector will only be considered to have visited the Parchin site if it is reported that they have physically visited the site in person; Iran "allowing" an inspection of the Parchin site or announcement of a planned future inspection is not sufficient for a "Yes" realization of the condition. IAEA inspectors are considered UN nuclear inspectors for the purpose of this question. Temporary suspension does not qualify as vacating office. Death of Assad constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Syria succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Canada has not officially re-opened their Tehran consulate). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 10/23/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Canada Consulate in Iran NA 2 If Bashar al-Assad resigns or otherwise vacates the office of President of Syria beforehand BUT a UN nuclear inspector does not visit Iran : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1162-3 3 Will the Canadian consulate in Tehran officially re-open at any time before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The Canadian Consulate in Tehran (Iran) will be considered re-opened if the Canadian consulate is staffed with personnel and resumes normal business in Tehran. This must be verified by an official announcement. Announcement of intention of the Canadian government to reopen the consulate in Tehran is insufficient for positive resolution. Anonymous statements by "officials not authorized to speak" will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Canadian Government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete opening/closing of the Canadian consulate in Tehran. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. A UN nuclear inspector will only be considered to have visited the Parchin site if it is reported that they have physically visited the site in person; Iran "allowing" an inspection of the Parchin site or announcement of a planned future inspection is not sufficient for a "Yes" realization of the condition. IAEA inspectors are considered UN nuclear inspectors for the purpose of this question. Temporary suspension does not qualify as vacating office. Death of Assad constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Syria succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Canada has not officially re-opened their Tehran consulate). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 10/23/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Canada Consulate in Iran NA 2 If BOTH a UN nuclear inspector visits Iran : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1162-4 4 Will the Canadian consulate in Tehran officially re-open at any time before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The Canadian Consulate in Tehran (Iran) will be considered re-opened if the Canadian consulate is staffed with personnel and resumes normal business in Tehran. This must be verified by an official announcement. Announcement of intention of the Canadian government to reopen the consulate in Tehran is insufficient for positive resolution. Anonymous statements by "officials not authorized to speak" will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Canadian Government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete opening/closing of the Canadian consulate in Tehran. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. A UN nuclear inspector will only be considered to have visited the Parchin site if it is reported that they have physically visited the site in person; Iran "allowing" an inspection of the Parchin site or announcement of a planned future inspection is not sufficient for a "Yes" realization of the condition. IAEA inspectors are considered UN nuclear inspectors for the purpose of this question. Temporary suspension does not qualify as vacating office. Death of Assad constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Syria succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Canada has not officially re-opened their Tehran consulate). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/23/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Canada Consulate in Iran 159 2 If NEITHER a UN nuclear inspector visits Iran : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1163-0 0 Will Liu Yandong be selected as a member of the next Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China? Liu Yandong will be considered to have been "selected" after an official announcement. If an official announcement of the entire selection of the next Politburo Standing Committee has been made and Liu Yandong was not selected this question will resolve "No." "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Communist Party of China who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the selection of the Politburo Standing Committee. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. No selection announcement has been made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/23/2012 11/21/2012 11/15/2012 11/14/2012 b Yandong as Chinese Politburo 22 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1165-0 0 Will Iran and the U.S. commence official nuclear program talks* before 1 April 2013? To be "official": Talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by governments of both nations (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" nuclear program talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party (e.g., the Swiss); meetings that do not feature Iran's nuclear program as a major focus of discussion. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/23/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 2/25/2013 a Iran/US nuclear talks 125 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1166-1 1 Will Israel launch an airstrike against Sudan between 5 November 2012 and 31 December 2012? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." An airstrike is defined as an unwelcomed attack on Sudanese soil or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned Israeli military aircraft that fires ordnance and is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government. An airstrike of a Sudanese embassy abroad does not constitute an airstrike against Sudan. Similarly, a territorial but nonviolent incursion into Sudanese airspace does not sufficiently constitute an airstrike of Sudan. Also outside the scope of "airstrike" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the Israeli government. An official announcement is one made by a senior member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Israeli government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the Israeli government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no airstrike). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. voided 11/5/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 NA Israel airstrike in Sudan NA 2 If Israel officially acknowledges responsibility for the Khartoum bombing of 23 October 2012 beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1166-2 2 Will Israel launch an airstrike against Sudan between 5 November 2012 and 31 December 2012? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." An airstrike is defined as an unwelcomed attack on Sudanese soil or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned Israeli military aircraft that fires ordnance and is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government. An airstrike of a Sudanese embassy abroad does not constitute an airstrike against Sudan. Similarly, a territorial but nonviolent incursion into Sudanese airspace does not sufficiently constitute an airstrike of Sudan. Also outside the scope of "airstrike" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the Israeli government. An official announcement is one made by a senior member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Israeli government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the Israeli government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no airstrike). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 11/5/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Israel airstrike in Sudan 56 2 If Israel does not officially acknowledge responsibility for the Khartoum bombing of 23 October 2012 beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1167-1 1 Will a banking union be approved in the EU council before 1 March 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The banking union here represents a treaty or official agreement that allows the European Central Bank to supervise the banks of all participating countries within the EU. For a "yes" resolution, any banking union must include for the union the power to withdraw banking licenses. An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the EU council. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no banking union has been approved). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 11/5/2012 2/27/2013 2/28/2013 NA EU Banking Union NA 2 If the UK officially announces its intention to join the banking union beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1167-2 2 Will a banking union be approved in the EU council before 1 March 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The banking union here represents a treaty or official agreement that allows the European Central Bank to supervise the banks of all participating countries within the EU. For a "yes" resolution, any banking union must include for the union the power to withdraw banking licenses. An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the EU council. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no banking union has been approved). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/5/2012 2/27/2013 2/28/2013 12/12/2012 a EU Banking Union 37 2 If the UK does not officially announce its intention to join the banking union beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1168-0 0 Will the sentence of any of the seven Italian experts convicted of manslaughter for failing to "adequately warn" about the L'Aquila earthquake be reduced, nullified, or suspended before 1 April 2013? The means of reduction, nullification, or suspension has no bearing on the question's resolution (i.e., whether a sentence is altered by an appellate court or by presidential edict makes no difference). If the sentence of any of the seven convicted individuals ;Franco Barberi, Enzo Boschi, Gian Michele Calvi Claudio Eva, Mauro Dolce, Giulio Selvaggi or Bernardo De Bernardinis; is reduced, nullified, or suspended the question will resolve "Yes", even if the sentences of the other convicted experts remain unchanged. Any legal order mandating a re-trial constitutes a nullification of a sentence. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e the sentences of the seven convicted experts stand unchanged). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/5/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Italy quake expert conviction 146 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1170-0 0 Will S&P downgrade India's credit rating between 5 November 2012 and 31 January 2013? This question will be resolved as "Yes" if S&P downgrades EITHER India's Local Long Term rating or Foreign Long Term rating, both of which were rated BBB- as of 31 October 2012. Resolution will be based on the official rating posted on Standard & Poor's website (http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/entity-ratings/en/us/?entityID=270374Œ_orCode=SOV). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 11/5/2012 1/30/2013 1/31/2013 1/31/2013 b S&P Downgrade India 87 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1171-1 1 Will the trial of Ahmed Shafik begin before 1 January 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Arraignment, preliminary hearing, or other pre-trial proceedings do not constitute the beginning of a trial. A trial in absentia constitutes a trial. Condition "a" will be realized if media reports indicate that Shafik's location is currently within Egyptian territory, excluding Egyptian embassies abroad. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e no trial has begun). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 11/19/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 NA Ahmed Shafik trial NA 2 If he returns to Egypt beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1171-2 2 Will the trial of Ahmed Shafik begin before 1 January 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Arraignment, preliminary hearing, or other pre-trial proceedings do not constitute the beginning of a trial. A trial in absentia constitutes a trial. Condition "a" will be realized if media reports indicate that Shafik's location is currently within Egyptian territory, excluding Egyptian embassies abroad. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e no trial has begun). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/19/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 b Ahmed Shafik trial 42 2 If he does not return to Egypt beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1172-1 1 Will the Taliban and the Afghan government commence official peace talks before 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Afghani government and Taliban (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.).
The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Statement of intent to release Baradar is not sufficient. There must be actual media confirmation that Baradar is no longer imprisoned or detained by Pakistan. Prisons, jails, labor camps, detention facilities and other forms of government detention qualify as "imprisoned." "House arrest" will generally qualify as "imprisoned." Death or hospitalization does not constitute "release". Official transfer of Baradar from Pakistani custody to another sovereign nation is sufficient for realization of condition "a".
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not commenced).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 11/19/2012 8/31/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 NA Taliban/Afghan talks NA 2 If Pakistan releases Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar from Pakistan custody beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1172-2 2 Will the Taliban and the Afghan government commence official peace talks before 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Afghani government and Taliban (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.).
The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Statement of intent to release Baradar is not sufficient. There must be actual media confirmation that Baradar is no longer imprisoned or detained by Pakistan. Prisons, jails, labor camps, detention facilities and other forms of government detention qualify as "imprisoned." "House arrest" will generally qualify as "imprisoned." Death or hospitalization does not constitute "release". Official transfer of Baradar from Pakistani custody to another sovereign nation is sufficient for realization of condition "a".
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not commenced).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/19/2012 8/31/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 8/31/2013 b Taliban/Afghan talks 285 2 If Pakistan does not release Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar from Pakistan custody beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1173-0 0 Will the Chinese consumer confidence score for the month of November 2012 drop below 99? NOTE REVISED CRITERIA AS OF 11/20: This question will be resolved based solely on data at http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/monthlydata/t20121120_402852696.htm. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/19/2012 12/30/2012 12/31/2012 12/28/2012 b Chinese consumer confidence score 39 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1174-0 0 Will the Turkish government release imprisoned Kurdish rebel leader Abdullah Ocalan before 1 April 2013? The release of Abdullah Ocalan must be confirmed by an official spokesperson of the Turkish government. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Statement of intent to release Ocalan is not sufficient. There must be actual media confirmation that the Ocalan is no longer imprisoned or detained by Turkey. Prisons, jails, labor camps, detention facilities and other forms of government detention qualify as "imprisoned." "House arrest" will generally qualify as "imprisoned." Death or hospitalization does not constitute "release". The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Abdullah Ocalan will remain in custody of the Turkish government beyond 1 April 2013). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/19/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Will Turkey release Abdullah Ocalan? 132 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1175-1 1 Will a *significant Israeli military force invade or enter the Gaza strip between 19 November and 30 November 2012? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A Hamas rocket refers to any surface to surface, self-propelled rocket or missile launched by forces of or allied with Hamas, not including rocket-propelled grenades. A rocket/missile that lands in Jerusalem but whose ordnance does not detonate does not meet this criteria. *A significant Israeli military force is one comprised of at least 1,000 Israeli soldiers. Only a new, unwelcomed incursion of Israeli troops into the Gaza strip qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An incursion into Gaza airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Gaza. An "Israeli military force" refers to some recognized subset of the Israeli nation's official military. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "significant Israeli military force" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the Israeli government. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Israeli forces have not invaded or entered Gaza). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 11/19/2012 11/29/2012 11/30/2012 NA Israel invade Gaza NA 2 If at least one Hamas rocket explodes within Jerusalem : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1175-2 2 Will a *significant Israeli military force invade or enter the Gaza strip between 19 November and 30 November 2012? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A Hamas rocket refers to any surface to surface, self-propelled rocket or missile launched by forces of or allied with Hamas, not including rocket-propelled grenades. A rocket/missile that lands in Jerusalem but whose ordnance does not detonate does not meet this criteria. *A significant Israeli military force is one comprised of at least 1,000 Israeli soldiers. Only a new, unwelcomed incursion of Israeli troops into the Gaza strip qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An incursion into Gaza airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Gaza. An "Israeli military force" refers to some recognized subset of the Israeli nation's official military. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "significant Israeli military force" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the Israeli government. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Israeli forces have not invaded or entered Gaza). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 11/19/2012 11/29/2012 11/30/2012 11/30/2012 b Israel invade Gaza 11 2 If no Hamas rockets explode within Jerusalem‰Ûªs city limits beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1176-0 0 Will Angela Merkel win the next election for Chancellor of Germany? The question will close with a "no" if Merkel is not nominated or is not elected by the Bundestag following the next German parliamentary election. The next German parliamentary election is expected to be held in September or October 2013. The question will remain open until results are definitively announced by one of the below sources.
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/3/2012 12/16/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/15/2013 12/16/2013 a Merkel wins German election 378 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1177-0 0 Will Mohammed Morsi cease to be President of Egypt before 1 April 2013? For "yes" to be the outcome, events must not only occur but also be reported by the media prior to deadline. Morsi will be considered "in power" as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. Leader has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. Leader is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state).
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) will be used for question resolution. Administrator reserves the right to choose one of these sources or to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts or may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
closed 12/3/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Morsi remains as Egypt President 118 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1178-0 0 Will Benjamin Netanyahu resign or otherwise vacate the office of Prime Minister of Israel before 1 April 2013? Outcome will be resolved "no" if Netanyahu holds the position of Prime Minister at this time and has not resigned or otherwise vacated office. Death of Netanyahu constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Israeli succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 12/3/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Netanyahu resigns 118 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1179-0 0 Will opposition forces in Syria seize control of the Syrian city of Aleppo by 30 April 2013? Opposition forces are defined as any armed forces not currently backed by or supporting the Syrian government. "Seize control" is defined as a transition in territorial rule or functional authority, as reported in one or more of our core sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "seized control." From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 48 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 48 hours, outcome will be resolved "yes." A "yes" resolution does not require the literal wording of "seize control": Synonyms for "seize" (e.g., "take," "gain") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., faction/force has not recently seized control). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "By" means at or prior to the end (23:59:59 pm ET) of the indicated date. closed 12/3/2012 5/31/2013 5/31/2013 4/30/2013 b Syria: Control of Aleppo 148 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1180-0 0 Will a significant* foreign or multinational military force invade or enter Iran between 17 December 2012 and 31 March 2013? *A significant foreign or multinational military force is one comprised of at least 1,000 soldiers. Only an unwelcomed incursion of foreign or multinational troops into Iranian soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of an Iranian embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Iran. Similarly, an incursion into Iranian territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Iran. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "foreign or multinational military force" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g. a significant foreign or multinational military force has not invaded or entered Iran). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/17/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Foreign forces invade Iran 104 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1181-0 0 Will Iran sign an IAEA Structured Approach document before 1 April 2013? A "Structured Approach document" (SAD) is one that explicitly allows UN or IAEA inspectors access to Iran's Parchin nuclear site and is reported as an SAD by at least one of our core sources. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., no document has been signed). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/17/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Iran signs IAEA Structured Approach 104 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1182-0 0 Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad resign or otherwise vacate the office of President of Iran before 1 April 2013? For "yes" to be the outcome, events must not only occur but also be reported by the media prior to deadline. Ahmadinejad will be considered President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. Leader has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. Leader is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state).
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) will be used for question resolution. Administrator reserves the right to choose one of these sources or to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., Ahmadinejad has not resigned/vacated office). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts or may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 12/17/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Ahmadinejad resigns 104 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1183-0 0 Will the United Nations Security Council pass a new resolution directly concerning Iran between 17 December 2012 and 31 March 2013? "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. A resolution "directly concerning" Iran means that the resolution's target must be Iran; for instance, a UNSC resolution on "the Middle East" more broadly or a passing mention of Iran in a UNSC resolution will be considered insufficient for a "yes" resolution. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g. no new resolution was passed). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/17/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b UNSC resolution on Iran 104 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1184-0 0 Before 1 April 2013, will substantial* evidence emerge that Iran has enriched any uranium above 27% purity? "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. *Substantial evidence is evidence of enrichment activity that is reported in at least one of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g. no evidence of enrichment above 27% emerged). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 12/17/2012 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Iran enriches Uranium above 27% 104 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1185-1 1 Will there be a substantial* lethal confrontation involving Iraqi government forces and Kurdish fighters before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." *A "substantial lethal" confrontation is defined as one that causes at least 100 combined deaths of Iraqi military or government personnel, and/or Kurdish fighters (Peshmerga). Talabani will be considered to not have vacated the office of President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications): a. He has died; b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat; c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile; d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs; e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days. For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately. For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient. For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power." Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a significant lethal confrontation, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that a lethal confrontation has not occurred; for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 1/7/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Iraq/Kurdish conflict NA 2 If Jalal Talabani vacates the office of President of Iraq beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1185-2 2 Will there be a substantial* lethal confrontation involving Iraqi government forces and Kurdish fighters before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." *A "substantial lethal" confrontation is defined as one that causes at least 100 combined deaths of Iraqi military or government personnel, and/or Kurdish fighters (Peshmerga). Talabani will be considered to not have vacated the office of President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications): a. He has died; b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat; c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile; d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs; e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days. For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately. For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient. For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power." Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a significant lethal confrontation, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that a lethal confrontation has not occurred; for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/7/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Iraq/Kurdish conflict 83 2 If Jalal Talabani does not vacate the office of President of Iraq beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1187-1 1 Will M23 seize, recapture, or otherwise occupy the city of Goma at any time before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Resolution of the condition will be resolved by an announcement by the British government as reported through a credible news source, such as BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). In the absence of such a report the current condition (no restoration of aid) is assumed. The outcome is judged to have occurred if news reports indicate that M23 has gained control of Goma or of a significant portion of the city. An incursion that is repelled by Congolese military forces or militia does not constitute control. This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "gained control." From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 48 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 48 hours, outcome will be resolved "yes." A "yes" resolution does not require the literal wording of "gain control": Synonyms for "gain" (e.g., "take," "seize") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., faction/force has not recently seized control). The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Goma has not been recaptured by M23). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 1/7/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA M23 occupy Goma NA 2 If the UK restores economic aid to Rwanda beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1187-2 2 Will M23 seize, recapture, or otherwise occupy the city of Goma at any time before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Resolution of the condition will be resolved by an announcement by the British government as reported through a credible news source, such as BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). In the absence of such a report the current condition (no restoration of aid) is assumed. The outcome is judged to have occurred if news reports indicate that M23 has gained control of Goma or of a significant portion of the city. An incursion that is repelled by Congolese military forces or militia does not constitute control. This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "gained control." From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 48 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 48 hours, outcome will be resolved "yes." A "yes" resolution does not require the literal wording of "gain control": Synonyms for "gain" (e.g., "take," "seize") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., faction/force has not recently seized control). The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Goma has not been recaptured by M23). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/7/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b M23 occupy Goma 83 2 If the UK does NOT restore economic aid to Rwanda beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1188-1 1 Will North Korea attempt launch of a multistage rocket between 7 January 2013 and 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
A multistage rocket refers to any self-propelled rocket or missile, regardless of payload (e.g. satellite, explosive, none, other), that has two or more stages. To "attempt a launch" is defined as a launch resulting in a "liftoff," regardless of whether or not the rocket/missile successfully leaves the atmosphere.
Outcome will resolve "yes" whether the attempted launch is for purposes of testing or an actual military attack.
"Additional" sanctions should be interpreted as any new sanctions, or the expansion or tightening of any existing sanctions. An official announcement is one made by a senior US spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the US who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the US. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations.
United Nations Security Council (or other institutional) Sanctions do not constitute US sanctions.
Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no launch has occurred; an "official" announcement has not been made).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. voided 1/7/2013 8/31/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 NA NKorea rocket launch NA 2 If the US officially announces additional sanctions against North Korea beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1188-2 2 Will North Korea attempt launch of a multistage rocket between 7 January 2013 and 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
A multistage rocket refers to any self-propelled rocket or missile, regardless of payload (e.g. satellite, explosive, none, other), that has two or more stages. To "attempt a launch" is defined as a launch resulting in a "liftoff," regardless of whether or not the rocket/missile successfully leaves the atmosphere.
Outcome will resolve "yes" whether the attempted launch is for purposes of testing or an actual military attack.
"Additional" sanctions should be interpreted as any new sanctions, or the expansion or tightening of any existing sanctions. An official announcement is one made by a senior US spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the US who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the US. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations.
United Nations Security Council (or other institutional) Sanctions do not constitute US sanctions.
Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no launch has occurred; an "official" announcement has not been made).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 1/7/2013 8/31/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 8/31/2013 b NKorea rocket launch 236 2 If the US does not officially announce additional sanctions against North Korea beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1189-1 1 Will Russia maintain any military presence at the Tartus Naval Base in Syria as of 1 January 2014? In order for a"yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
The Russian presence at Tartus will be considered to have been maintained except in the case of core source (e.g. Reuters, BBC, Economist) reports that Russia has evacuated all personnel and Naval vessels from the Tartus Naval base. Assad will be considered to not have vacated the office of President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days.
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
;For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for the main question, that Russia retains a military presence the Tartus Naval Base and for the antecedent that al-Assad does not vacate the office of President of Syria). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "As of" means at noon ET on 1 January 2014. voided 1/7/2013 1/1/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 NA Russian Syria naval base NA 2 If Bashar al-Assad vacates the office of President of Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1189-2 2 Will Russia maintain any military presence at the Tartus Naval Base in Syria as of 1 January 2014? In order for a"yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
The Russian presence at Tartus will be considered to have been maintained except in the case of core source (e.g. Reuters, BBC, Economist) reports that Russia has evacuated all personnel and Naval vessels from the Tartus Naval base. Assad will be considered to not have vacated the office of President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days.
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
;For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., for the main question, that Russia retains a military presence the Tartus Naval Base and for the antecedent that al-Assad does not vacate the office of President of Syria). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "As of" means at noon ET on 1 January 2014. closed 1/7/2013 1/1/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 1/1/2014 a Russian Syria naval base 359 2 If Bashar al-Assad does not vacate the office of President of Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1190-1 1 Will Italian ten-year government bond yields be below 4% as of 31 March 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Italian ten-year government bond yields" refer to the rates for Generic Italian government bonds. The outcome will be resolved based solely on the data at www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND. The administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed. "As of" should be interpreted to mean at 12:00:00 ET on March 31 2013. Bersani will be judged to have become Italian Prime Minister if he has been sworn in as Prime Minister before 31 March 2013. Condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Bersani did not become Prime Minister of Italy). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 1/22/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Italy Bond Rate NA 2 If Pier Luigi Bersani becomes Prime Minister of Italy beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1190-2 2 Will Italian ten-year government bond yields be below 4% as of 31 March 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Italian ten-year government bond yields" refer to the rates for Generic Italian government bonds. The outcome will be resolved based solely on the data at www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND. The administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed. "As of" should be interpreted to mean at 12:00:00 ET on March 31 2013. Bersani will be judged to have become Italian Prime Minister if he has been sworn in as Prime Minister before 31 March 2013. Condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Bersani did not become Prime Minister of Italy). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 1/22/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Italy Bond Rate 68 2 If Pier Luigi Bersani does not become Prime Minister of Italy beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1191-1 1 Will the official US Dollar to Venezuelan Bolivar exchange rate exceed 4.35 at any point before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must occur before the outcome. Note that "at any point" refers to any time during which the currency is traded and is not restricted to a "close of trading day" level. The outcome will be resolved according to the real time data available at http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-vef-chart. Chavez will be considered to not have vacated the office of President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days.
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
Condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 EST) of the previous date. voided 1/22/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Venezuela exchange rate NA 2 If Hugo Chavez vacates the office of President of Venezuela beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1191-2 2 Will the official US Dollar to Venezuelan Bolivar exchange rate exceed 4.35 at any point before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must occur before the outcome. Note that "at any point" refers to any time during which the currency is traded and is not restricted to a "close of trading day" level. The outcome will be resolved according to the real time data available at http://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-vef-chart. Chavez will be considered to not have vacated the office of President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat.
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile.
d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs.
e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days.
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately.
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient.
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power."
Condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 EST) of the previous date. closed 1/22/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 2/12/2013 a Venezuela exchange rate 21 2 If Hugo Chavez does not vacate the office of President of Venezuela beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1192-1 1 Will Uhuru Kenyatta be found guilty of any charges by the International Criminal Court before 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
A verdict of guilty must be officially announced by a representative of the ICC. An official announcement is one made by a senior member of spokesperson for the Kenyan government (main question) or ICC (antecedent). "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the ICC who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the ICC. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
Condition and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' condition and outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Uhuru Kenyatta did not win the election; Uhuru Kenyatta has not been found guilty of any charges by the ICC). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
"Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/22/2013 4/11/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 4/11/2013 b Kenyata ICC Verdict 79 2 If Uhuru Kenyatta wins the next Kenyan Presidential election beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1192-2 2 Will Uhuru Kenyatta be found guilty of any charges by the International Criminal Court before 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
A verdict of guilty must be officially announced by a representative of the ICC. An official announcement is one made by a senior member of spokesperson for the Kenyan government (main question) or ICC (antecedent). "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the ICC who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the ICC. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
Condition and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' condition and outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Uhuru Kenyatta did not win the election; Uhuru Kenyatta has not been found guilty of any charges by the ICC). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
"Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 1/22/2013 4/11/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 NA Kenyata ICC Verdict NA 2 If Uhuru Kenyatta does not win the next Kenyan Presidential election beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1194-1 1 Will a measurable* Syrian military force invade or enter Israel between 4 February 2013 and 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." *A measurable Syrian military force is one comprised of at least 10 troops. Only an unwelcome incursion of foreign or multinational troops into Israeli soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of an Israeli embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Israel. Similarly, an incursion into Israeli territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Israel. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "Syrian military forces" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by Syria's government. An additional airstrike is defined as an unwelcomed attack on Syrian soil or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned Israeli military aircraft that fires ordnance; the airstrike must occur after the question's open date. An airstrike of a Syrian embassy abroad does not constitute an airstrike against Syria. Similarly, a territorial but nonviolent incursion into Syrian airspace does not sufficiently constitute an airstrike of Syria. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. No measurable Syrian military force has invaded or entered Israel). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. voided 2/4/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Syria Invades Israel NA 2 If Israel launches an additional airstrike against Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1194-2 2 Will a measurable* Syrian military force invade or enter Israel between 4 February 2013 and 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." *A measurable Syrian military force is one comprised of at least 10 troops. Only an unwelcome incursion of foreign or multinational troops into Israeli soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of an Israeli embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Israel. Similarly, an incursion into Israeli territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Israel. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "Syrian military forces" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by Syria's government. An additional airstrike is defined as an unwelcomed attack on Syrian soil or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned Israeli military aircraft that fires ordnance; the airstrike must occur after the question's open date. An airstrike of a Syrian embassy abroad does not constitute an airstrike against Syria. Similarly, a territorial but nonviolent incursion into Syrian airspace does not sufficiently constitute an airstrike of Syria. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. No measurable Syrian military force has invaded or entered Israel). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 2/4/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 4/1/2013 b Syria Invades Israel 56 2 If Israel does not launch an additional airstrike against Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1195-1 1 Will a measurable* Israeli military force invade or enter Syria between 4 February 2013 and 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." *A measurable Israeli military force is one comprised of at least 10 troops. Only an unwelcome incursion of foreign or multinational troops into Syrian soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of a Syrian embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Syria. Similarly, an incursion into Syrian territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Syria. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "Israeli military forces" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by Israel's government. For our purposes, a chemical weapon will be defined as a device that uses chemicals that inflict death or harm to at least one human being, or is prohibited under the Chemical Weapons Convention. A chemical weapons test does not constitute "use" of a chemical weapon. Also outside the scope of "chemical weapons" are tear gas or pepper spray when used for domestic riot/crowd control. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e No measurable Israeli military force has invaded or entered Syria). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. voided 2/4/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Israel Invades Syria NA 2 If Syrian government forces use chemical weapons beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1195-2 2 Will a measurable* Israeli military force invade or enter Syria between 4 February 2013 and 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." *A measurable Israeli military force is one comprised of at least 10 troops. Only an unwelcome incursion of foreign or multinational troops into Syrian soil qualifies as "invaded" or "entered." An invasion or entry of a Syrian embassy abroad does not constitute an invasion of or entry into Syria. Similarly, an incursion into Syrian territorial waters or airspace does not sufficiently constitute an invasion of or entry into Syria. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "Israeli military forces" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by Israel's government. For our purposes, a chemical weapon will be defined as a device that uses chemicals that inflict death or harm to at least one human being, or is prohibited under the Chemical Weapons Convention. A chemical weapons test does not constitute "use" of a chemical weapon. Also outside the scope of "chemical weapons" are tear gas or pepper spray when used for domestic riot/crowd control. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e No measurable Israeli military force has invaded or entered Syria). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 2/4/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 4/1/2013 b Israel Invades Syria 56 2 If Syrian government forces do not use chemical weapons beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1196-1 1 Will any foreign or multinational military force significantly* attack North Korea before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A foreign or multinational military force refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. A significant attack is defined as any unwelcomed firing into North Korean territory or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned foreign military aircraft, surface-to-surface artillery, gun, or rocket/missile firing ordnance or carrying explosives or bullets that cause the deaths of at least 5 North Korean citizens, and the attack must be officially acknowledged by the government of at least one of the attacking states. An attack against a North Korean embassy abroad does not constitute an attack against North Korea. Also outside the scope of äóìattackäó� are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the government of the attacking state(s). A successful detonation of a nuclear device is defined as a detonation where a chain reaction occurs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction), whether that detonation occurs as a test explosion or as an actual military attack. Note that computer simulations or controlled chain reactions within nuclear reactors do not constitute detonation of nuclear devices, and so-called "dirty" bombs do not constitute nuclear devices. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., There has not been a significant attack on North Korea). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/4/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Attack North Korea 55 2 If North Korea successfully detonates a nuclear device--either atmospherically, underground, or underwater--beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1196-2 2 Will any foreign or multinational military force significantly* attack North Korea before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A foreign or multinational military force refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. A significant attack is defined as any unwelcomed firing into North Korean territory or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned foreign military aircraft, surface-to-surface artillery, gun, or rocket/missile firing ordnance or carrying explosives or bullets that cause the deaths of at least 5 North Korean citizens, and the attack must be officially acknowledged by the government of at least one of the attacking states. An attack against a North Korean embassy abroad does not constitute an attack against North Korea. Also outside the scope of äóìattackäó� are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the government of the attacking state(s). A successful detonation of a nuclear device is defined as a detonation where a chain reaction occurs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction), whether that detonation occurs as a test explosion or as an actual military attack. Note that computer simulations or controlled chain reactions within nuclear reactors do not constitute detonation of nuclear devices, and so-called "dirty" bombs do not constitute nuclear devices. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., There has not been a significant attack on North Korea). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/4/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Attack North Korea NA 2 If North Korea does not successfully detonate a nuclear device--either atmospherically, underground, or underwater--beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1197-1 1 Will a foreign state or multinational coalition officially announce a no-fly zone over Syria before 1 January 2014? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A foreign state or multinational coalition means any non-Syrian state(s) or IGO(e.g. the UN).
A "no-fly zone" is defined as "a territory or area over which aircraft are not permitted to fly" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-fly_zone ).
The announcement of a no-fly zone over Syria must be reported by a reliable news source (e.g. BBC, Reuters, Economist; see below) for resolution. "Lethal aid" is defined as "defense articles" and "defense services" on the United States Munitions List pursuant to section 38 of the Arms Export Control Act [22 U.S.C. 2778] (22 CFR part 121; http://uscode.house.gov/download/pls/Title_50.txt; http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?c=ecfr&tpl=/ecfrbrowse/Title22/22cfr121_main_02.tpl).
An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
The "Syrian opposition" includes but is not limited to any of the groups, forces, or individuals included in the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces or the Syrian National Council. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., a no-fly zone has not been established; an "official" announcement has not been made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/4/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 NA Syria No-Fly Zone NA 2 If the US officially announces that it is providing lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1197-2 2 Will a foreign state or multinational coalition officially announce a no-fly zone over Syria before 1 January 2014? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A foreign state or multinational coalition means any non-Syrian state(s) or IGO(e.g. the UN).
A "no-fly zone" is defined as "a territory or area over which aircraft are not permitted to fly" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No-fly_zone ).
The announcement of a no-fly zone over Syria must be reported by a reliable news source (e.g. BBC, Reuters, Economist; see below) for resolution. "Lethal aid" is defined as "defense articles" and "defense services" on the United States Munitions List pursuant to section 38 of the Arms Export Control Act [22 U.S.C. 2778] (22 CFR part 121; http://uscode.house.gov/download/pls/Title_50.txt; http://www.ecfr.gov/cgi-bin/text-idx?c=ecfr&tpl=/ecfrbrowse/Title22/22cfr121_main_02.tpl).
An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
The "Syrian opposition" includes but is not limited to any of the groups, forces, or individuals included in the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces or the Syrian National Council. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., a no-fly zone has not been established; an "official" announcement has not been made). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/4/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 b Syria No-Fly Zone 330 2 If the US does not officially announce that it is providing lethal assistance to the Syrian opposition beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1198-1 1 Will Egypt lift the state of emergency in Port Said, Suez, and Ismailiya before 25 February 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Lifted" means that the state of emergency has been cancelled, revoked, discontinued or allowed to expire for each of the three cities. To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by Mohammad Morsi and the following opposition leaders: Mohamed ElBaradei and Hamdeen Sabahi. The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the state of emergency is still in effect). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/4/2013 2/23/2013 2/24/2013 NA Egypt Lifts SOE NA 2 If Mohammad Morsi and opposition leaders engage in official talks beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1198-2 2 Will Egypt lift the state of emergency in Port Said, Suez, and Ismailiya before 25 February 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Lifted" means that the state of emergency has been cancelled, revoked, discontinued or allowed to expire for each of the three cities. To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by Mohammad Morsi and the following opposition leaders: Mohamed ElBaradei and Hamdeen Sabahi. The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the state of emergency is still in effect). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/4/2013 2/23/2013 2/24/2013 2/24/2013 b Egypt Lifts SOE 20 2 If Mohammad Morsi and opposition leaders do not engage in official talks beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1199-0 0 Will Hamadi Jebali cease to be Prime Minister of Tunisia before 1 April 2013? For "yes" to be the outcome, events must not only occur but also be reported by the media prior to deadline. Jabali will be considered "in power" as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications): <br/>
a. He has died; <br/>
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat; <br/>
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile; <br/>
d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs; <br/>
e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days. <br/>
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately. <br/>
For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. <br/>Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient. <br/>
For conditions "c" through "e", administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, or if other relevant conditions (e.g., condition "a") are fulfilled prior to the end of the period, the question will be resolved at this time as "leader is no longer in power." Question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 EST) of the previous date. closed 2/12/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 2/19/2013 a Jebali as Prime Minister of Tunisia 7 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1200-1 1 Will Mali commence presidential elections before 1 January 2014? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin inside Mali before the indicated date. On December 20th, 2012 the UNSC passed a resolution authorizing a 3000 man ECOWAS/AFISMA-led military force to intervene in Mali. These conditions ask about a UNSC resolution regarding a peacekeeping force led or designated by the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations. The Official UNSC press statements or announcements do not constitute resolutions.
The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., presidential elections have not occurred before 30 SEP 2013). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/12/2013 5/1/2013 12/31/2013 5/1/2013 a Mali Election 78 2 If the UN Security Council passes a resolution authorizing a U.N. peacekeeping force in Mali beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1200-2 2 Will Mali commence presidential elections before 1 January 2014? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin inside Mali before the indicated date. On December 20th, 2012 the UNSC passed a resolution authorizing a 3000 man ECOWAS/AFISMA-led military force to intervene in Mali. These conditions ask about a UNSC resolution regarding a peacekeeping force led or designated by the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations. The Official UNSC press statements or announcements do not constitute resolutions.
The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., presidential elections have not occurred before 30 SEP 2013). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/12/2013 5/1/2013 12/31/2013 NA Mali Election NA 2 If the UN Security Council does not pass a resolution authorizing a U.N. peacekeeping force in Mali beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1202-1 1 Will the Malian government and National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) begin official talks before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Malian government and MNLA (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Operation Serval follows the UN Security Council Resolution 2085 of 20 December 2012. The operation will be declared as ended if there is an official announcement by a French Government official indicating that security operations have ended or that another force (e.g. UN) has assumed primary responsibility for Malian security support. A reported renaming or phase change will not be considered to be an end. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of Mali for the question and France for the condition, who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of Mali/France. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., Operation Serval has not ended; Mali and MNLA have not begun official talks). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 2/12/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 NA Mali Talks NA 2 If France ends Operation Serval beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1202-2 2 Will the Malian government and National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA) begin official talks before 1 April 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." To be "official", talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Malian government and MNLA (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; indirect talks mediated by some third party. Operation Serval follows the UN Security Council Resolution 2085 of 20 December 2012. The operation will be declared as ended if there is an official announcement by a French Government official indicating that security operations have ended or that another force (e.g. UN) has assumed primary responsibility for Malian security support. A reported renaming or phase change will not be considered to be an end. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of Mali for the question and France for the condition, who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of Mali/France. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (e.g., Operation Serval has not ended; Mali and MNLA have not begun official talks). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 2/12/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/31/2013 b Mali Talks 47 2 If France does not end Operation Serval beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1203-0 0 Will a Zimbabwean referendum vote approve a new constitution before 1 April 2013? Question will resolve as "No" if a referendum vote is not held or if Zimbabwean vote(s) have failed to approve a new constitution before 1 April 2013. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. no referendum has approved a new constitution). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/26/2013 3/30/2013 3/31/2013 3/19/2013 a Zimbabwe constitutional referendum 21 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1204-0 0 Will Egypt commence parliamentary elections before 23 April 2013? The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin inside Egypt before the indicated date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., elections have not commenced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/26/2013 4/21/2013 4/22/2013 4/22/2013 b Egypt parliamentary elections 55 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1207-0 0 Will France withdraw at least 500 troops from Mali before 10 April 2013? Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., France has not withdrawn 500 troops from Mali). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/11/2013 4/8/2013 4/9/2013 4/9/2013 b France troop withdrawal from Mali 29 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1208-1 1 Will the Syrian government commence official talks with Syrian opposition forces before 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
The Syrian National Coalition is also known as the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. To be "official," talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; or indirect talks mediated by some third party. An "official" announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations.
Syrian opposition forces are defined as any armed forces not currently backed by or supporting the Syrian government. "Seize control" is defined as a transition in territorial rule or functional authority, as reported in one or more of our core sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "seized control."
From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 48 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 48 hours, condition "c" will be realized.
A "yes" realization does not require the literal wording of "seize control": Synonyms for "seize" (e.g., "take," "gain") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. Outcome and conditions will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred; no "official" announcements have been made; faction/force has not recently seized control). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 3/20/2013 8/31/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 NA Syria talks with opposition NA 2 If the US officially announces that it recognizes the Syrian National Coalition as the legitimate governing authority in Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1208-2 2 Will the Syrian government commence official talks with Syrian opposition forces before 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
The Syrian National Coalition is also known as the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. To be "official," talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; or indirect talks mediated by some third party. An "official" announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations.
Syrian opposition forces are defined as any armed forces not currently backed by or supporting the Syrian government. "Seize control" is defined as a transition in territorial rule or functional authority, as reported in one or more of our core sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "seized control."
From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 48 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 48 hours, condition "c" will be realized.
A "yes" realization does not require the literal wording of "seize control": Synonyms for "seize" (e.g., "take," "gain") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. Outcome and conditions will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred; no "official" announcements have been made; faction/force has not recently seized control). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 3/20/2013 8/31/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 NA Syria talks with opposition NA 2 If the US officially announces that it has added any branch of the Assad Regime : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1208-3 3 Will the Syrian government commence official talks with Syrian opposition forces before 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
The Syrian National Coalition is also known as the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. To be "official," talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; or indirect talks mediated by some third party. An "official" announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations.
Syrian opposition forces are defined as any armed forces not currently backed by or supporting the Syrian government. "Seize control" is defined as a transition in territorial rule or functional authority, as reported in one or more of our core sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "seized control."
From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 48 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 48 hours, condition "c" will be realized.
A "yes" realization does not require the literal wording of "seize control": Synonyms for "seize" (e.g., "take," "gain") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. Outcome and conditions will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred; no "official" announcements have been made; faction/force has not recently seized control). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 3/20/2013 8/31/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 NA Syria talks with opposition NA 2 If the Syrian opposition forces seize control of the Syrian city of Damascus beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1208-4 4 Will the Syrian government commence official talks with Syrian opposition forces before 1 September 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
The Syrian National Coalition is also known as the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces. To be "official," talks must commence (not merely be announced) by the deadline, they must be publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication), and they must be attended by officially recognized representatives of the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition (Note: talks need not be exclusively bilateral.). The following would not constitute "official" talks: informal, secret, or happenstance encounters; or indirect talks mediated by some third party. An "official" announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations.
Syrian opposition forces are defined as any armed forces not currently backed by or supporting the Syrian government. "Seize control" is defined as a transition in territorial rule or functional authority, as reported in one or more of our core sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). This transition may or may not be accompanied by a formal surrender of control, provided that there is credible media reporting that a faction has "seized control."
From the time that a new "control" transition is first reported in one of these sources, at least 48 hours must pass during which there are no subsequent reports of a reversal in control from any of the core media sources. If control is seized with no reported reversal for 48 hours, condition "c" will be realized.
A "yes" realization does not require the literal wording of "seize control": Synonyms for "seize" (e.g., "take," "gain") and "control" (e.g., "rule") are generally acceptable. Outcome and conditions will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., "official" talks have not occurred; no "official" announcements have been made; faction/force has not recently seized control). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/20/2013 8/31/2013 6:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 8/31/2013 b Syria talks with opposition 164 2 If none of the above conditions occurs beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1209-0 0 Will Standard & Poor's improve Tunisia's sovereign credit rating or outlook before 10 April 2013? Currently Tunisia's rating is BB- with a negative outlook. Tunisia's rating or outlook will be considered improved if either the credit rating of BB- is improved or the negative outlook is removed or improved. Changes to Standard & Poor's sovereign credit rating and outlook for Tunisia will be determined via their web site at http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/entity-ratings/en/us/?entityID=270405Œ_orCode=SOV. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET). closed 3/11/2013 4/8/2013 4/9/2013 4/9/2013 b Tunisia credit rating 29 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1210-1 1 Will a significant North Korean military force violate the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) of the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) before 1 October 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome"
A significant North Korean military force is one comprised of at least 10 troops. Only an unwelcome incursion of North Korean troops that specifically violates the MDL will result in a "yes" outcome. "Violate" should be interpreted as the intentional crossing of the MDL, whether or not it involves the firing of weapons. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "North Korean military forces" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the North Korean government.
An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson."Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no significant North Korean military force has violated the MDL; an "official" announcement has not been made).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 3/11/2013 9/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 9/30/2013 NA N Korea DMZ violation NA 2 If the US officially announces that it has designated North Korea as a State Sponsor of Terrorism beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1210-2 2 Will a significant North Korean military force violate the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) of the Korean Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) before 1 October 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome"
A significant North Korean military force is one comprised of at least 10 troops. Only an unwelcome incursion of North Korean troops that specifically violates the MDL will result in a "yes" outcome. "Violate" should be interpreted as the intentional crossing of the MDL, whether or not it involves the firing of weapons. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of "North Korean military forces" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the North Korean government.
An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson."Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no significant North Korean military force has violated the MDL; an "official" announcement has not been made).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/11/2013 9/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 9/30/2013 9/30/2013 b N Korea DMZ violation 203 2 If the US does not officially announce that it has designated North Korea as a State Sponsor of Terrorism beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1211-1 1 Will the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) hold a relative majority of seats in the Japanese Parliament's upper house following the next elections? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
A relative majority means that the LDP holds more seats than any other party. Question will be resolved once the election results are officially announced. An "official announcement" is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government.
In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 3/11/2013 7/20/2013 7/31/2013 7/20/2013 a Japan parliament majority 131 2 If Prime Minister Shinzo Abe officially announces a decision to join Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1211-2 2 Will the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) hold a relative majority of seats in the Japanese Parliament's upper house following the next elections? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome."
A relative majority means that the LDP holds more seats than any other party. Question will be resolved once the election results are officially announced. An "official announcement" is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government.
In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 3/11/2013 7/20/2013 7/31/2013 NA Japan parliament majority NA 2 If Prime Minister Shinzo Abe does not officially announce a decision to join Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1212-0 0 Will there be a significant lethal confrontation in the East China Sea region between Japan and China before 1 January 2014? For positive resolution, a major news source must confirm that there has been a significant lethal confrontation in the East China Sea between Japan and China.
A "significant lethal" confrontation is defined as one that causes at least ten combined deaths of military or government personnel, with at least one death occurring on both the Japanese and Chinese sides. The East China Sea region includes the waters of the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea, as well as the lands of the Senkaku and Tong Islands, or the airspace above any of these lands or waters.
The question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e there has not been a significant lethal confrontation between China and Japan in the East China Sea region).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/11/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 b Japan/China confrontation 295 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1213-0 0 Will ä‰å1 Euro buy less than $1.27 at any point before 10 April 2013? "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Note that "at any point refers to any time during which the exchange markets are open and is not restricted to a "close of day" exchange rate. This question will be resolved according exclusively to the real time data available at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EURUSD:CUR. closed 3/25/2013 4/8/2013 4/9/2013 4/9/2013 b Euro Less than $1.27 15 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1214-0 0 Will Standard & Poor's improve Cyprus' sovereign credit rating or outlook before 10 April 2013? Currently Cyprus' rating is CCC with a negative outlook. Cyprus' rating or outlook will be considered improved if either the credit rating of CCC is improved or the negative outlook is removed or improved. Changes to Standard & Poor's sovereign credit rating and outlook for Cyprus will be determined via their web site at http://www.standardandpoors.com/prot/ratings/entity-ratings/en/us/?entityID=270915Œ_orCode=SOV. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET). closed 3/25/2013 4/8/2013 4/9/2013 4/9/2013 b S&P Cyprus rating 15 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1215-0 0 Will Turkey ratify a new constitution before 1 February 2014? A constitution may be ratified by either a parliamentary or referendum vote. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting by BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com).
Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online.
If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., a new constitution has not been ratified). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
NOTE FOR CONTINUING FORECASTERS: This is a revised version of prior question 1126, which was a "binned" ordinal question. It has been revised because two of the date ranges have expired, rendering the question effectively a binary question as now stated. closed 7/15/2013 1/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2014 1/31/2014 b Turkey ratify new constitution 200 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1216-0 0 Will Uhuru Kenyatta be found guilty of any charges by the International Criminal Court before 1 September 2013? A verdict of guilty must be officially announced by a representative of the ICC. An official announcement is one made by a senior member of spokesperson for the ICC. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the ICC who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the ICC. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports.
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Uhuru Kenyatta has not been found guilty of any charges by the ICC). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
"Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
NOTE FOR CONTINUING FORECASTERS: This is a revised version of prior question 1192, which was a conditional question. It has been revised because, as of the start of Season 3, the outcome of the two prior conditions is known, leaving only the binary question now stated. closed 7/15/2013 8/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 8/31/2013 8/31/2013 b Kenyatta ICC Verdict 47 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1217-0 0 Will Mali commence presidential elections before 1 January 2014? The commencement of the election means that a vote will begin inside Mali before the indicated date.
The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., presidential elections have not occurred before 1 January 2014). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (11:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
NOTE FOR CONTINUING FORECASTERS: This is a revised version of prior question 1200, which was a conditional question. It has been revised because, as of the start of Season 3, the outcome of the two prior conditions is known, leaving only the binary question now stated. closed 7/15/2013 7/30/2013 12/31/2013 7/30/2013 a Mali Election 15 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1218-1 1 Will China seize control* of the Second Thomas Shoal before 1 January 2014? The ship BRP Sierra Madre is the structure though which the Philippines claim control of the Second Thomas Shoal, part of the disputed territory in the South China Seas. However, the ship has begun to sink after years of deterioration. If the Philippines were to attempt to reinforce the ship, the Chinese might seize the opportunity to publicly accuse the Philippines of provocation and/or even attempt to tow away the vessel. The question will resolve "yes" only if the Chinese seize control of the shoal. "Seizing control" would involve the use of Chinese maritime forces (including maritime enforcement vessels) to occupy the shoal while expelling or detaining any Philippine forces. Sinking or towing the Sierra Madre would count as "seizing." "Structurally reinforce" is defined as the reinforcement of existing structures or the building of new structures to continue Philippine presence on the shoal. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., China has not seized control of the Second Thomas Shoal and the Philippines has not structurally reinforced the BRP Sierra Madre). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 9/25/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 NA China/Second Thomas Shoal NA 2 If the Philippines structurally reinforces the BRP Sierra Madre beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1218-2 2 Will China seize control* of the Second Thomas Shoal before 1 January 2014? The ship BRP Sierra Madre is the structure though which the Philippines claim control of the Second Thomas Shoal, part of the disputed territory in the South China Seas. However, the ship has begun to sink after years of deterioration. If the Philippines were to attempt to reinforce the ship, the Chinese might seize the opportunity to publicly accuse the Philippines of provocation and/or even attempt to tow away the vessel. The question will resolve "yes" only if the Chinese seize control of the shoal. "Seizing control" would involve the use of Chinese maritime forces (including maritime enforcement vessels) to occupy the shoal while expelling or detaining any Philippine forces. Sinking or towing the Sierra Madre would count as "seizing." "Structurally reinforce" is defined as the reinforcement of existing structures or the building of new structures to continue Philippine presence on the shoal. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., China has not seized control of the Second Thomas Shoal and the Philippines has not structurally reinforced the BRP Sierra Madre). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 9/25/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 b China/Second Thomas Shoal 97 2 If the Philippines does not structurally reinforce the BRP Sierra Madre beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1219-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will Myanmar *officially announce that construction of the Myitsone Dam will resume? A "yes" resolution requires that the government of Myanmar officially announce before 1 May 2014 that it is resuming construction on the Myitsone Dam. The resumption of the construction work is not required, and the date for which the resumption of construction work is planned is irrelevant as long as the announcement occurs before 1 May 2014. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Myanmar government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Realization of the first condition does not require the ceasefire to take effect or hold, only for it to be officially announced. The official announcement must come from both sides of the conflict, i.e., the Myanmar government and the Kachin Independence Army. The statement of the official ceasefire agreement must be made by an official representative or spokesperson from both sides. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government and the Kachin Independence Army who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Conditions and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome (Myanmar has not announced that construction will resume and no official ceasefire has been agreed to) will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 1/15/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA Myanmar - Myitsone Dam NA 2 If an official ceasefire agreement between Myanmar and Kachin Independence Army is announced beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1219-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will Myanmar *officially announce that construction of the Myitsone Dam will resume? A "yes" resolution requires that the government of Myanmar officially announce before 1 May 2014 that it is resuming construction on the Myitsone Dam. The resumption of the construction work is not required, and the date for which the resumption of construction work is planned is irrelevant as long as the announcement occurs before 1 May 2014. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Myanmar government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Realization of the first condition does not require the ceasefire to take effect or hold, only for it to be officially announced. The official announcement must come from both sides of the conflict, i.e., the Myanmar government and the Kachin Independence Army. The statement of the official ceasefire agreement must be made by an official representative or spokesperson from both sides. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government and the Kachin Independence Army who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Conditions and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome (Myanmar has not announced that construction will resume and no official ceasefire has been agreed to) will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/15/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Myanmar - Myitsone Dam 105 2 If an official ceasefire agreement between Myanmar and Kachin Independence Army is not announced beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1220-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will Chinese armed forces or maritime law enforcement forces attempt to interdict or make physical contact with at least one U.S. government naval vessel or airplane or Japanese government naval vessel or airplane that it claims is in its territorial waters or airspace? "Physical contact" refers to a collision, whether purposeful or not. Armed forces refers to official military units in control of a national government. Maritime law enforcement forces refers to Coast Guard or other nationally directed vessels, with armaments, outside the context of the official armed forces. "U.S. naval vessel or airplane" refers to a ship or plane that is the official property of the U.S. government, e.g. part of the U.S. armed forces or other U.S. government agency. "Japanese naval vessel or airplane" refers to a ship or plane that is the official property of the Japanese government, e.g. part of the Japanese Defense Forces or other Japanese government agency. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/31/2013 12/13/2013 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 12/13/2013 a China Interdiction 135 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1225-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will Iran abolish the office of President of the Islamic Republic? Abolish here means amending the constitution or changing the law to eliminate the office. Diminutions in the power of the presidency would not qualify. An easing of sanctions by executive order could take the form of a removal of previously imposed sanctions or a removal of individuals or entities from the list of persons determined to be a part of the government of Iran (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/iran.pdf). In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 9/11/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA Iran abolish president NA 2 If the U.S. President issues an executive order easing sanctions on Iran : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1225-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will Iran abolish the office of President of the Islamic Republic? Abolish here means amending the constitution or changing the law to eliminate the office. Diminutions in the power of the presidency would not qualify. An easing of sanctions by executive order could take the form of a removal of previously imposed sanctions or a removal of individuals or entities from the list of persons determined to be a part of the government of Iran (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/iran.pdf). In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/11/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Iran abolish president 231 2 If the U.S. president does not issue an executive order easing sanctions on Iran : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1226-1 1 Will six-party talks with North Korea resume before 1 January 2014? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The six parties are North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. For this question to resolve in the affirmative, representatives of all six governments must meet simultaneously as part of an event officially described as a resumption of six-party talks. The U.S. is slated to transfer operational control of South Korean government armed forces during wartime to the government of South Korea (currently, the U.S., in wartime, would control the operation of South Korean government armed forces) in December 2015, but there is currently discussion of delaying that date. "Operational control" refers to control of the military during wartime. The issue is outlined here: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/yonhap-news-agency/130718/dempsey-says-some-setbacks-opcon-transfer-plan-0. A delay will be considered to have occurred if there is either an announcement by an official representative of the South Korean or U.S. government or reporting in the same sources used to determine the overall outcome. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/7/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 NA Korea: Six-party talks NA 2 If the U.S. announces beforehand that it is delaying the transfer of wartime operational command of the South Korean military to South Korea beyond December 1, 2015 : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1226-2 2 Will six-party talks with North Korea resume before 1 January 2014? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The six parties are North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. For this question to resolve in the affirmative, representatives of all six governments must meet simultaneously as part of an event officially described as a resumption of six-party talks. The U.S. is slated to transfer operational control of South Korean government armed forces during wartime to the government of South Korea (currently, the U.S., in wartime, would control the operation of South Korean government armed forces) in December 2015, but there is currently discussion of delaying that date. "Operational control" refers to control of the military during wartime. The issue is outlined here: http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/yonhap-news-agency/130718/dempsey-says-some-setbacks-opcon-transfer-plan-0. A delay will be considered to have occurred if there is either an announcement by an official representative of the South Korean or U.S. government or reporting in the same sources used to determine the overall outcome. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/7/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 b Korea: Six-party talks 146 2 If the U.S. does not announce beforehand that it is delaying the transfer of wartime operational command of the South Korean military to South Korea beyond December 1, 2015 : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1229-1 1 Before 1 March 2014, will the U.S. and E.U. announce that they have reached at least partial agreement on the terms of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The TTIP is a proposed free-trade agreement between the U.S. and E.U. (see http://www.ustr.gov/about-us/press-office/fact-sheets/2013/february/US-EU-TTIP). An agreement need only be announced, not fully ratified by both parties, for this question to resolve affirmatively. A *tiered approach refers to an agreement that extends negotiations on selected issues while concluding an agreement on others. This partial approach would allow negotiations on some issues (e.g., agricultural subsidies or genetically modified crops) to continue while formalizing a new agreement on others. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/21/2013 NULL 3/1/2014 NA TTIP Agreement NA 2 If the two sides agree beforehand to adopt a tiered approach : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1229-2 2 Before 1 March 2014, will the U.S. and E.U. announce that they have reached at least partial agreement on the terms of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The TTIP is a proposed free-trade agreement between the U.S. and E.U. (see http://www.ustr.gov/about-us/press-office/fact-sheets/2013/february/US-EU-TTIP). An agreement need only be announced, not fully ratified by both parties, for this question to resolve affirmatively. A *tiered approach refers to an agreement that extends negotiations on selected issues while concluding an agreement on others. This partial approach would allow negotiations on some issues (e.g., agricultural subsidies or genetically modified crops) to continue while formalizing a new agreement on others. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/21/2013 NULL 3/1/2014 NA TTIP Agreement NA 2 If the two sides do not agree beforehand to adopt a tiered approach : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1230-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will the Eurozone countries announce that they have reached agreement on a common bank resolution mechanism? A "common bank resolution mechanism" is a single rulebook governing cross-border resolution for all banks; it is seen to be a precondition of a true banking union in the Eurozone (see http://ec.europa.eu/internal_market/finances/banking-union/index_en.htm). For a "yes" resolution to occur, the president or another official representative of the Eurogroup must publicly announce that all Eurozone member governments or their finance ministers have agreed to adopt this mechanism. This announcement would most likely appear in a press release on the Eurogroup web site: http://www.eurozone.europa.eu/newsroom/news/. Any subsequent collapse of, or failure to ratify, that agreement would not invalidate a prior "yes" resolution; announcement of an agreement is sufficient. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 7/31/2013 NULL 4/30/2014 NA Eurozone common bank resolution NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1231-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will Nicolas Maduro vacate the office of President of Venezuela? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Outcome will be resolved "no" if Maduro holds the position of President on 1 May 2014 and has not previously vacated office. Death of Maduro constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Venezuelan succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will not be treated as constituting resignation; reports must exist that Maduro has legally vacated the office or that another leader has become President. Daily closing spot price of Brent crude will be based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm. EIA defines Brent crude as "A blended crude stream produced in the North Sea region which serves as a reference or "marker" for pricing a number of other crude streams (http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp. A daily closing spot price below $85 is sufficient to resolve the condition for (a). "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Maduro has not vacated office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 8/14/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA Venezuela/Maduro NA 2 If the daily closing spot price per barrel of Brent crude oil falls below $85 at any time beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1231-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will Nicolas Maduro vacate the office of President of Venezuela? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Outcome will be resolved "no" if Maduro holds the position of President on 1 May 2014 and has not previously vacated office. Death of Maduro constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Venezuelan succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will not be treated as constituting resignation; reports must exist that Maduro has legally vacated the office or that another leader has become President. Daily closing spot price of Brent crude will be based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration at http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm. EIA defines Brent crude as "A blended crude stream produced in the North Sea region which serves as a reference or "marker" for pricing a number of other crude streams (http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/TblDefs/pet_pri_spt_tbldef2.asp. A daily closing spot price below $85 is sufficient to resolve the condition for (a). "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Maduro has not vacated office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 8/14/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Venezuela/Maduro 259 2 If the daily closing spot price per barrel of Brent crude oil does not fall below $85 at any time beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1232-1 1 Before 1 January 2014, will the government of Bolivia invite the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to resume work in Bolivia? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Extend" refers to a public offer by an official representative of the U.S. government such as the US Trade Representative. USAID refers to the US Agency for International Development, e.g. the organization described here: http://www.usaid.gov/. In May 2013, Bolivian president Evo Morales ordered USAID out of his country (see http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/01/world/americas/bolivia-usaid-expelled). Positive resolution requires a public statement by an official representative of the government of Bolivia to the effect that USAID may return to Bolivia or resume or continue its work there. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 7/31/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 NA Bolivia/USAID NA 2 If the US offers to extend the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) to cover Bolivia : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1232-2 2 Before 1 January 2014, will the government of Bolivia invite the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to resume work in Bolivia? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "Extend" refers to a public offer by an official representative of the U.S. government such as the US Trade Representative. USAID refers to the US Agency for International Development, e.g. the organization described here: http://www.usaid.gov/. In May 2013, Bolivian president Evo Morales ordered USAID out of his country (see http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/01/world/americas/bolivia-usaid-expelled). Positive resolution requires a public statement by an official representative of the government of Bolivia to the effect that USAID may return to Bolivia or resume or continue its work there. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/31/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 b Bolivia/USAID 153 2 If the US does not offer to extend the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act (ATPDEA) to cover Bolivia : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1234-1 1 Before 1 January 2014, will the government of Afghanistan sign a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) permitting U.S. troops to remain in Afghanistan? "Released" means given back to official representatives of the Afghan government or coalition forces in Afghanistan, allowing him to return to the United States. Positive resolution requires the Afghan government to sign a document permitting U.S. military forces to remain in Afghanistan with provisions for basing agreements and court jurisdiction. "Government of Afghanistan" shall mean President Karzai or a duly appointed cabinet representative. "Before" shall mean as of or prior to 23:59:59 31 Dec 2013. "SOFA" shall mean a legally binding agreement authorizing US and NATO military forces to be based in Afghanistan with provisions for basing agreements and court jurisdiction. "Troops" shall mean uniformed military personnel under the command of ISAF/NATO headquarters. "Remain" shall mean housed on military bases in Afghanistan, and shall exclude personnel assigned to Embassies. It does not imply "rules of engagement" or authorization for military operations. "in Afghanistan" shall mean the territory of Afghanistan, excluding any foreign embassies. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). voided 7/31/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 NA Afghanistan SOFA NA 2 If US Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl is released beforehand by the Taliban : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1234-2 2 Before 1 January 2014, will the government of Afghanistan sign a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) permitting U.S. troops to remain in Afghanistan? "Released" means given back to official representatives of the Afghan government or coalition forces in Afghanistan, allowing him to return to the United States. Positive resolution requires the Afghan government to sign a document permitting U.S. military forces to remain in Afghanistan with provisions for basing agreements and court jurisdiction. "Government of Afghanistan" shall mean President Karzai or a duly appointed cabinet representative. "Before" shall mean as of or prior to 23:59:59 31 Dec 2013. "SOFA" shall mean a legally binding agreement authorizing US and NATO military forces to be based in Afghanistan with provisions for basing agreements and court jurisdiction. "Troops" shall mean uniformed military personnel under the command of ISAF/NATO headquarters. "Remain" shall mean housed on military bases in Afghanistan, and shall exclude personnel assigned to Embassies. It does not imply "rules of engagement" or authorization for military operations. "in Afghanistan" shall mean the territory of Afghanistan, excluding any foreign embassies. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). closed 7/31/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 b Afghanistan SOFA 153 2 If US Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl is not released beforehand by the Taliban : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1240-0 0 Will Libya complete elections for a Constitutional Commission before 1 October 2013? Libya is planning to elect a 60-person Constitutional Commission to draft a new national constitution. These elections are being overseen by a three-person electoral committee appointed in April 2013. The elections will be considered "completed" if and when the electoral committee announces official results for at least two-thirds of the 60 seats being contested. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/31/2013 9/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 9/30/2013 9/30/2013 b Libya Constitutional Commission 61 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1244-0 0 Will India and/or Brazil become a permanent member of the U.N. Security Council before 1 March 2015? For a "yes" resolution to occur, an official representative of at least one of the two governments must be seated on the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member, or be officially announced as a new permanent member, before the aforementioned date. An official announcement is one made by a senior United Nations (UN) spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the UN who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the UN. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/28/2013 2/28/2015 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2015 2/28/2015 b India/Brazil UNSC 549 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1246-0 0 Will Chad experience an onset of insurgency between October 2013 and March 2014? "Insurgency" refers to multiple, violent attacks on state targets (e.g., state security forces or governing officials) carried out by an organized, non-state opposition group or groups that seek to overthrow the current government. Patterns of violent attacks by organizations that seek autonomy or independence are considered separatist rebellions, not insurgencies, and do not qualify. "Between October 2013 and March 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of October 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of March 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent examples of onsets of insurgency identified by ICEWS include Tanzania in May 2013, Niger in May 2013, Egypt in August 2012, and Ivory Coast in July 2012. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. closed 9/25/2013 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/31/2014 b Chad Insurgency 187 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1247-1 1 Before 1 November 2013, will the current Egyptian government declare that it has suspended Egypt's Constitution? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The Egyptian government refers to the military-led government that took power from elected President Morsi. A declaration that the Constitution has been suspended would have to come from an official representative of the Egyptian government in a press release, speech, or other "official" notice. F-16s refer to the fighter aircraft commonly known as F-16s and a transfer refers to the current agreement to transfer F-16s that has been suspended given issues within the U.S. government about the transfer of power in Egypt, e.g.: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/24/19658730-obama-halts-delivery-of-four-f-16-jets-to-egypt-amid-unrest?lite. A physical transfer would involve an official announcement by an official of the U.S. government that the U.S. had transferred the F-16s to Egypt despite the issues with the government. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 7/31/2013 NULL 10/31/2013 NA Egypt suspends constitution NA 2 If the US government physically transfers F-16s to Egypt beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1247-2 2 Before 1 November 2013, will the current Egyptian government declare that it has suspended Egypt's Constitution? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The Egyptian government refers to the military-led government that took power from elected President Morsi. A declaration that the Constitution has been suspended would have to come from an official representative of the Egyptian government in a press release, speech, or other "official" notice. F-16s refer to the fighter aircraft commonly known as F-16s and a transfer refers to the current agreement to transfer F-16s that has been suspended given issues within the U.S. government about the transfer of power in Egypt, e.g.: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/24/19658730-obama-halts-delivery-of-four-f-16-jets-to-egypt-amid-unrest?lite. A physical transfer would involve an official announcement by an official of the U.S. government that the U.S. had transferred the F-16s to Egypt despite the issues with the government. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 7/31/2013 NULL 10/31/2013 NA Egypt suspends constitution NA 2 If the US government does not physically transfer F-16s to Egypt beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1248-0 0 Will Mozambique experience an onset of insurgency between October 2013 and March 2014? "Insurgency" refers to multiple, violent attacks on state targets (e.g., state security forces or governing officials) carried out by an organized, non-state opposition group or groups that seek to overthrow the current government. Patterns of violent attacks by organizations that seek autonomy or independence are considered separatist rebellions, not insurgencies, and do not qualify. "Between October 2013 and March 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of October 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of March 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent examples of onsets of insurgency identified by ICEWS include Tanzania in May 2013, Niger in May 2013, Egypt in August 2012, and Ivory Coast in July 2012. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. closed 9/25/2013 10/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 10/31/2013 a Mozambique Insurgency 36 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1249-1 1 Will China deploy any armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over the territory of another country before 1 May 2014? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." For purposes of this question, "UAV" refers to a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle with a range of at least 300km. Some have already reported that China has deployed UAVs into the East China Sea: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/03/china-drone-program_n_3207392.html. "Over the territory of another country" is meant to refer to the internationally recognized sovereign territory of another nation, rather than surveillance in international waters or over disputed territory. "Strike" refers to the launch of munitions. China refers to the government of the People's Republic of China, meaning a deployment must be by an official representative of the country, e.g. the People's Liberation Army. "In Mali, Libya, or Niger" means within the domestic territory of each country: embassies abroad do not count as territory. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/28/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA China deploy UAV NA 2 If a UAV strikes at least one target in Mali, Libya, or Niger : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1249-2 2 Will China deploy any armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) over the territory of another country before 1 May 2014? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." For purposes of this question, "UAV" refers to a fixed-wing unmanned aerial vehicle with a range of at least 300km. Some have already reported that China has deployed UAVs into the East China Sea: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/03/china-drone-program_n_3207392.html. "Over the territory of another country" is meant to refer to the internationally recognized sovereign territory of another nation, rather than surveillance in international waters or over disputed territory. "Strike" refers to the launch of munitions. China refers to the government of the People's Republic of China, meaning a deployment must be by an official representative of the country, e.g. the People's Liberation Army. "In Mali, Libya, or Niger" means within the domestic territory of each country: embassies abroad do not count as territory. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/28/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b China deploy UAV 245 2 if a UAV does not strike any targets in Mali, Libya, or Niger : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1250-1 1 Will China sell at least one unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to any other country before 1 May 2014? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." For China, a public announcement of an agreement to transact shall be considered a sale. The UAV does not have to be delivered for a "yes" resolution to occur. For the United States, "signs a contract" must occur following the formal Congressional notification process. This involves notification to Congress by an official agency of the Executive Branch (see: http://www.dsca.mil/pressreleases/36-b/36b_index.htm). The U.S. Congress has to not move to block the transfer following formal notification by the Executive Branch (under the terms of the Arms Export Control Act), but the system itself does not have to be delivered. Time just has to expire on the formal notification process, meaning that the Executive Branch can sign a contract with the recipient for the transfer. For more on Congress' role, see: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL31675.pdf. Congress has 30 days to object after notification, per the link cited. "Armed" refers to a platform that will be transferred either with munitions or with a signed agreement to include munitions at some definite future point. "At least one" refers to one or more. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/7/2013 4/24/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA China UAV Sale NA 2 If the U.S. government signs a contract agreeing to transfer at least one armed UAV to a non-NATO country beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1250-2 2 Will China sell at least one unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to any other country before 1 May 2014? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." For China, a public announcement of an agreement to transact shall be considered a sale. The UAV does not have to be delivered for a "yes" resolution to occur. For the United States, "signs a contract" must occur following the formal Congressional notification process. This involves notification to Congress by an official agency of the Executive Branch (see: http://www.dsca.mil/pressreleases/36-b/36b_index.htm). The U.S. Congress has to not move to block the transfer following formal notification by the Executive Branch (under the terms of the Arms Export Control Act), but the system itself does not have to be delivered. Time just has to expire on the formal notification process, meaning that the Executive Branch can sign a contract with the recipient for the transfer. For more on Congress' role, see: http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL31675.pdf. Congress has 30 days to object after notification, per the link cited. "Armed" refers to a platform that will be transferred either with munitions or with a signed agreement to include munitions at some definite future point. "At least one" refers to one or more. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/7/2013 4/24/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/24/2014 a China UAV Sale 260 2 If the U.S. government does not sign a contract agreeing to transfer at least one armed UAV to a non-NATO country beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1251-0 0 Will Guinea commence legislative elections before 1 October 2013? Guinea has delayed planned legislative elections on several occasions, but the government and opposition recently agreed to hold them before the end of September (see http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=45379&Cr=guinea&Cr1=#.UfpE8I3CaM4). Commencement of the elections means that a vote will begin domestically within Guinea before the indicated date. The elections must be commenced by the date mentioned in the question but need not be concluded by that date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/14/2013 9/27/2013 9:00:00 AM 9/30/2013 9/27/2013 a Guinea Legislative Elections 44 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1252-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will Joseph Kony be *captured or *incapacitated by a Ugandan, foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "LRA" refers to the Lord's Resistance Army, which Kony leads. The U.S. suspended operations in pursuit of Kony in CAR in April 2013 (see http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/09/joseph-kony-lra-hunt-suspended). Positive resolution of the condition requires a public statement from an official in the U.S. Department of State or Africom to the effect that U.S. forces have resumed at least some of those operations. *Captured means taken into official custody alive. *Incapacitated could mean taken into official custody, in any physical state (alive or dead). If Kony is killed in the process of being captured, it must be done by a Ugandan or foreign military force. If Kony is killed during a drone strike or any other attack by Ugandan or foreign military forces, it will suffice for a resolution of "yes." However, accidental death or death by a rebel force, for example, will not suffice for a resolution of "yes". A "Ugandan, foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force" refers to some recognized subset of Uganda's, another nation's (or multinational coalition's or intergovernmental organization's) official military (e.g. African Union) or law enforcement (e.g. INTERPOL) personnel. This definition of "military/law enforcement force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Actions by covert intelligence services or representatives thereof fall within the scope of "foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force" only if they are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Kony has not been captured). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 8/14/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Kony Capture 259 2 If the U.S. announces beforehand that its forces have resumed counter-LRA operations in the Central African Republic : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1252-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will Joseph Kony be *captured or *incapacitated by a Ugandan, foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force? In order for a "yes" realization to occur for a conditional probability, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." "LRA" refers to the Lord's Resistance Army, which Kony leads. The U.S. suspended operations in pursuit of Kony in CAR in April 2013 (see http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/apr/09/joseph-kony-lra-hunt-suspended). Positive resolution of the condition requires a public statement from an official in the U.S. Department of State or Africom to the effect that U.S. forces have resumed at least some of those operations. *Captured means taken into official custody alive. *Incapacitated could mean taken into official custody, in any physical state (alive or dead). If Kony is killed in the process of being captured, it must be done by a Ugandan or foreign military force. If Kony is killed during a drone strike or any other attack by Ugandan or foreign military forces, it will suffice for a resolution of "yes." However, accidental death or death by a rebel force, for example, will not suffice for a resolution of "yes". A "Ugandan, foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force" refers to some recognized subset of Uganda's, another nation's (or multinational coalition's or intergovernmental organization's) official military (e.g. African Union) or law enforcement (e.g. INTERPOL) personnel. This definition of "military/law enforcement force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Actions by covert intelligence services or representatives thereof fall within the scope of "foreign or multinational military/law enforcement force" only if they are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nation's government. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Kony has not been captured). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 8/14/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA Kony Capture NA 2 If the U.S. does not announce beforehand that its forces have resumed counter-LRA operations in the Central African Republic : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1253-1 1 Before 1 December 2013, will Egypt impose a constitutional ban on political parties based on *religion? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A "constitutional ban" refers to a ban imposed explicitly by the constitution. Such a ban could arise either by amendment to or replacement of Egypt's current constitution, which does not impose such a ban. Under the transition plan outlined after Mohammed Morsi's removal from office, a new constitution is supposed to be drafted and submitted to a popular referendum within 90 days. For purposes of this IFP, however, the process by which the constitution is drafted or adopted or amended does not affect the resolution; only the fact of its adoption or amendment does. For a "yes" resolution to occur, a public announcement of the adoption of a new constitution or amendment to the existing one must be made by any official representative of the (interim) Egyptian government, and that amended or new constitution must ban political parties based on religion. A constitution shall be considered to have banned political parties based on religion if it includes language that forbids the organization of, or participation in elections by, a party or parties on the basis of criteria that specifically reference religion, faith, sect, or denomination, regardless of which religion(s) or faith(s) is/are being mentioned. The transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft refers to the current agreement to transfer F-16s that has been suspended by the United States given issues within the U.S. government about the transfer of power in Egypt, e.g.: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/24/19658730-obama-halts-delivery-of-four-f-16-jets-to-egypt-amid-unrest?lite. A physical transfer would involve an official announcement by an official of the U.S. government that the U.S. had transferred one or more F-16s to Egypt. An announcement of the intention to deliver the aircraft does not resolve the question "yes." Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/14/2013 11/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 11/30/2013 NA Egypt Constitutional Ban NA 2 If the U.S. government physically transfers one or more F-16s to Egypt beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1253-2 2 Before 1 December 2013, will Egypt impose a constitutional ban on political parties based on *religion? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A "constitutional ban" refers to a ban imposed explicitly by the constitution. Such a ban could arise either by amendment to or replacement of Egypt's current constitution, which does not impose such a ban. Under the transition plan outlined after Mohammed Morsi's removal from office, a new constitution is supposed to be drafted and submitted to a popular referendum within 90 days. For purposes of this IFP, however, the process by which the constitution is drafted or adopted or amended does not affect the resolution; only the fact of its adoption or amendment does. For a "yes" resolution to occur, a public announcement of the adoption of a new constitution or amendment to the existing one must be made by any official representative of the (interim) Egyptian government, and that amended or new constitution must ban political parties based on religion. A constitution shall be considered to have banned political parties based on religion if it includes language that forbids the organization of, or participation in elections by, a party or parties on the basis of criteria that specifically reference religion, faith, sect, or denomination, regardless of which religion(s) or faith(s) is/are being mentioned. The transfer of F-16 fighter aircraft refers to the current agreement to transfer F-16s that has been suspended by the United States given issues within the U.S. government about the transfer of power in Egypt, e.g.: http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/07/24/19658730-obama-halts-delivery-of-four-f-16-jets-to-egypt-amid-unrest?lite. A physical transfer would involve an official announcement by an official of the U.S. government that the U.S. had transferred one or more F-16s to Egypt. An announcement of the intention to deliver the aircraft does not resolve the question "yes." Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/14/2013 11/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 b Egypt Constitutional Ban 108 2 If the U.S. government does not physically transfer one or more F-16s to Egypt beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1254-1 1 Before 1 April 2014, will the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspect the Parchin Military Complex? The Parchin Military Complex is one of a number of sites the IAEA seeks to inspect as part of its efforts to ensure Iran's compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (see http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2012/gov2012-50.pdf). In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A "yes" resolution requires a statement from the IAEA to the effect that its representatives (regardless of whether they are called "inspectors," "agents" or some other title) have visited Parchin and conducted inspections there. It does not require that access to the site be unfettered. The Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013 seeks to tighten sanctions on Iran, including further restrictions on the sale of its oil. It passed the House of Representatives on 31 July 2013, and is currently under consideration in the Senate (see http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/01/us-usa-iran-sanctions-idUSBRE96U1GK20130801). The Nuclear Iran Prevention Act could become law in one of three ways: 1) both houses of Congress pass it and the president signs it; 2) both houses of Congress pass it, the president vetoes it, but both houses of Congress then pass it again by at least a two-thirds majority; or 3) both houses pass it and the president takes no action on it for 10 days, not counting Sundays (see http://www.usconstitution.net/consttop_law.html). Passage by any of these pathways before the outcome would suffice to resolve the condition affirmatively, regardless of the effective date of the law. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/14/2013 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 NA Iran Nuclear Inspections NA 2 If the Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013 becomes law beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1254-2 2 Before 1 April 2014, will the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspect the Parchin Military Complex? The Parchin Military Complex is one of a number of sites the IAEA seeks to inspect as part of its efforts to ensure Iran's compliance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (see http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2012/gov2012-50.pdf). In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A "yes" resolution requires a statement from the IAEA to the effect that its representatives (regardless of whether they are called "inspectors," "agents" or some other title) have visited Parchin and conducted inspections there. It does not require that access to the site be unfettered. The Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013 seeks to tighten sanctions on Iran, including further restrictions on the sale of its oil. It passed the House of Representatives on 31 July 2013, and is currently under consideration in the Senate (see http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/01/us-usa-iran-sanctions-idUSBRE96U1GK20130801). The Nuclear Iran Prevention Act could become law in one of three ways: 1) both houses of Congress pass it and the president signs it; 2) both houses of Congress pass it, the president vetoes it, but both houses of Congress then pass it again by at least a two-thirds majority; or 3) both houses pass it and the president takes no action on it for 10 days, not counting Sundays (see http://www.usconstitution.net/consttop_law.html). Passage by any of these pathways before the outcome would suffice to resolve the condition affirmatively, regardless of the effective date of the law. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/14/2013 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/31/2014 b Iran Nuclear Inspections 229 2 If the Nuclear Iran Prevention Act of 2013 does not become law beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1255-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will Iran *test a ballistic missile with a reported range greater than 2,500 km? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. *Test means launch or attempt to launch a ballistic missile, regardless of which direction it is aimed. "Attempt a launch" is defined as a launch resulting in a "liftoff," regardless of whether or not the rocket/missile successfully leaves the atmosphere. The test does not have to succeed and the missile does not have to fly the specified distance for the question to resolve positively. If the missile does not fly more than the specified distance, statements by the Government of Iran about the missile's intended range will be used to resolve the question EXCEPT that news reports from Reuters, BBC News or the Economist that contradict the claims of the Government of Iran regarding the intended distance or capability of the rocket shall be relied upon if the official claims and news reports are inconsistent. An airstrike is defined as an unwelcomed attack on Iranian soil or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned military aircraft that fires ordnance and is officially acknowledged by at least one government participating in the airstrike. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of äóìforeign or multinational military forceäó� are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nationäó»s government. An airstrike on an Iranian embassy abroad does not constitute an airstrike against Iran. Similarly, a territorial but nonviolent incursion into Iranian airspace does not sufficiently constitute an airstrike of Iran. An official announcement is one made by a senior member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of at least one sponsoring nation's government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. Conditions and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/21/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA Iran Missile Test NA 2 If a foreign or multinational military force carries out an airstrike on Iran beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1255-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will Iran *test a ballistic missile with a reported range greater than 2,500 km? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. *Test means launch or attempt to launch a ballistic missile, regardless of which direction it is aimed. "Attempt a launch" is defined as a launch resulting in a "liftoff," regardless of whether or not the rocket/missile successfully leaves the atmosphere. The test does not have to succeed and the missile does not have to fly the specified distance for the question to resolve positively. If the missile does not fly more than the specified distance, statements by the Government of Iran about the missile's intended range will be used to resolve the question EXCEPT that news reports from Reuters, BBC News or the Economist that contradict the claims of the Government of Iran regarding the intended distance or capability of the rocket shall be relied upon if the official claims and news reports are inconsistent. An airstrike is defined as an unwelcomed attack on Iranian soil or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned military aircraft that fires ordnance and is officially acknowledged by at least one government participating in the airstrike. This definition of "military force" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Also outside the scope of äóìforeign or multinational military forceäó� are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by a sponsoring nationäó»s government. An airstrike on an Iranian embassy abroad does not constitute an airstrike against Iran. Similarly, a territorial but nonviolent incursion into Iranian airspace does not sufficiently constitute an airstrike of Iran. An official announcement is one made by a senior member or spokesperson. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of at least one sponsoring nation's government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. Conditions and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/21/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Iran Missile Test 252 2 If no foreign or multinational military force carries out an airstrike on Iran beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1257-0 0 Before 1 February 2014, will either India or Pakistan recall its High Commissioner from the other country? High Commissioner is the title given to the heads of diplomatic missions from Commonwealth countries; it is equivalent to ambassador. In the 2001-2002 crisis that brought the two countries to the brink of war, India recalled its High Commissioner, a step that was unprecedented at the time (see http://www.stimson.org/images/uploads/research-pdfs/To_the_Brink.pdf). An official announcement must be made by a spokesperson for either of the governments. Such an announcement of recall needs to be made by a senior member or spokesperson for either the Indian or the Pakistani governments. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. An announcement of the recall will not suffice for the resolution of this question. The High Commissioner must be physically recalled from either of the governments and be back on domestic soil. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/21/2013 1/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2014 1/31/2014 b India/Pakistan High Commissioner 163 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1259-1 1 Will Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa be Prime Minister of Bahrain on 1 February 2014? Prince Khalifa refers to H.R.H. Prince Khalifa bin Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, who has served as Prime Minister of Bahrain since the country gained independence in 1971. The question would resolve negatively if Prince Khalifa is no longer serving as Prime Minister on 1 February 2014, or if the position of Prime Minister of Bahrain no longer exists at that time. Death of Prince Khalifa constitutes vacation of office; however, temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure will not suffice for an affirmative outcome. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office of the Prime Minister will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Bahrain succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will not be treated as constituting resignation; reports must exist that Khalifa has legally vacated the office (or that another leader has become the new Prime Minister). Abdullah refers to Abdullah bin Abdulaziz bin Abdulrahman bin Faisal bin Turki bin Abdullah bin Muhammad bin Saud, the reigning king of Saudi Arabia. The condition would resolve affirmatively if Abdullah dies, abdicates the throne, is forced from the throne (i.e. a coup), or if the role of king of Saudi Arabia ceases to exist. However, temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure will not suffice for an affirmative outcome. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Saudi Arabian succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will not be treated as constituting resignation; reports must exist that Abdullah has legally vacated the role of King (or that another leader has become the new King). . In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 8/28/2013 1/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/1/2014 NA Khalifa PM Bahrain NA 2 If Abdullah ceases to be king of Saudi Arabia beforehand; : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1259-2 2 Will Prince Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa be Prime Minister of Bahrain on 1 February 2014? Prince Khalifa refers to H.R.H. Prince Khalifa bin Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa, who has served as Prime Minister of Bahrain since the country gained independence in 1971. The question would resolve negatively if Prince Khalifa is no longer serving as Prime Minister on 1 February 2014, or if the position of Prime Minister of Bahrain no longer exists at that time. Death of Prince Khalifa constitutes vacation of office; however, temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure will not suffice for an affirmative outcome. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office of the Prime Minister will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Bahrain succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will not be treated as constituting resignation; reports must exist that Khalifa has legally vacated the office (or that another leader has become the new Prime Minister). Abdullah refers to Abdullah bin Abdulaziz bin Abdulrahman bin Faisal bin Turki bin Abdullah bin Muhammad bin Saud, the reigning king of Saudi Arabia. The condition would resolve affirmatively if Abdullah dies, abdicates the throne, is forced from the throne (i.e. a coup), or if the role of king of Saudi Arabia ceases to exist. However, temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure will not suffice for an affirmative outcome. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Saudi Arabian succession law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will not be treated as constituting resignation; reports must exist that Abdullah has legally vacated the role of King (or that another leader has become the new King). . In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 8/28/2013 1/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/1/2014 1/31/2014 a Khalifa PM Bahrain 156 2 If Abdullah does not cease to be king of Saudi Arabia beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1262-1 1 Will Syria attack Israel between 28 August 2013 and 31 December 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A foreign or multinational military force refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "official military" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. An attack is defined as any unwelcomed firing into territory or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned foreign military aircraft, surface-to-surface artillery, gun, or rocket/missile firing ordnance or carrying explosives or bullets, and the attack must be officially acknowledged by the government of at least one of the attacking states. An attack against an (e.g. Country X's) embassy abroad does not constitute an attack against Country X. Also outside the scope of "attack" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the government of the attacking state(s). For the purposes of the questions, an attack by Syria means an attack by (at least some subset of) official Syrian governmental forces. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., There has not been an attack). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. closed 8/28/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 12/31/2013 b Syria attack Israel 125 2 If a foreign or multinational military force attacks Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1262-2 2 Will Syria attack Israel between 28 August 2013 and 31 December 2013? In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A foreign or multinational military force refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "official military" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. An attack is defined as any unwelcomed firing into territory or territorial waterways by a manned or unmanned foreign military aircraft, surface-to-surface artillery, gun, or rocket/missile firing ordnance or carrying explosives or bullets, and the attack must be officially acknowledged by the government of at least one of the attacking states. An attack against an (e.g. Country X's) embassy abroad does not constitute an attack against Country X. Also outside the scope of "attack" are alleged actions attributed to covert intelligence services or representatives thereof, unless those actions are expressly acknowledged by the government of the attacking state(s). For the purposes of the questions, an attack by Syria means an attack by (at least some subset of) official Syrian governmental forces. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., There has not been an attack). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 PM ET) of the second date. voided 8/28/2013 12/31/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2013 NA Syria attack Israel NA 2 If a foreign or multinational military force does not attack Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1263-1 1 Will Nawaz Sharif vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 May 2014? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Outcome will be resolved "no" if Sharif holds the position of Prime Minister on 1 May 2014 and has not resigned or vacated that office in any other way. Death constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Pakistani law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation as of the specific indicated date. "Domestic consumers" refers to the final users of products and services, usually households, and "tariffs" are rates. In 2013, PEPCO announced that it would raise its tariffs for all domestic consumers in October, after increasing its tariffs for all industrial and wholesale customers. While tariffs for domestic consumers will be increased after October 1, the highest increases will be for consumption of more than 200 and 300 units per month. For consumers using less than 200 units the tariff will remain unchanged. (http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=215101) For the condition to resolve affirmatively, a tariff increase must actually occur in at least one region of the country and must apply to all domestic consumers in that region whose electricity consumption exceeds 200 kWh per month; announcement of an intention or plan to increase tariffs for domestic consumers will not suffice. Conditions and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/11/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Pakistan Prime Minister 231 2 If the Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) increases its tariffs for domestic consumers of over 200 units (kWh) beforehand. : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1263-2 2 Will Nawaz Sharif vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan before 1 May 2014? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Outcome will be resolved "no" if Sharif holds the position of Prime Minister on 1 May 2014 and has not resigned or vacated that office in any other way. Death constitutes vacation of office; temporary incapacitation due to routine medical procedure does not. Whether prolonged medical incapacitation (e.g. coma) constitutes vacation of office will be determined on a case-by-case basis by a subject matter expert familiar with Pakistani law. A formal announcement or letter of intent to resign that lists a specific date will be treated as constituting resignation as of the specific indicated date. "Domestic consumers" refers to the final users of products and services, usually households, and "tariffs" are rates. In 2013, PEPCO announced that it would raise its tariffs for all domestic consumers in October, after increasing its tariffs for all industrial and wholesale customers. While tariffs for domestic consumers will be increased after October 1, the highest increases will be for consumption of more than 200 and 300 units per month. For consumers using less than 200 units the tariff will remain unchanged. (http://pakobserver.net/detailnews.asp?id=215101) For the condition to resolve affirmatively, a tariff increase must actually occur in at least one region of the country and must apply to all domestic consumers in that region whose electricity consumption exceeds 200 kWh per month; announcement of an intention or plan to increase tariffs for domestic consumers will not suffice. Conditions and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 9/11/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA Pakistan Prime Minister NA 2 If the Pakistan Electric Power Company (PEPCO) does not increase its tariffs for domestic consumers of over 200 units (kWh) beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1266-1 1 Before 1 March 2014, will Gazprom announce that it has unilaterally reduced natural-gas exports to Ukraine? In 2012, Ukraine and the EU initialed an Association Agreement (see http://eeas.europa.eu/top_stories/2012/140912_ukraine_en.htm). Russian officials have threatened to impose "protective measures" if that agreement is signed (see http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-trade-deal-putin-warning/250834äó_), and the government of Russia owns a controlling stake in Gazprom. For the resolution of this question, Gazprom must announce a reduction or cessation of natural gas exports to Ukraine before 1 March 2014. Merely announcing the intention to cut off the exports will not suffice for a positive resolution; the announcement must state that a reduction or cessation has in fact occurred. A "yes" resolution will occur even if this announcement focuses solely on gas exports bound for domestic consumption in Ukraine, that is, even if Gazprom specifies that exports that are bound for third parties but transshipped via Ukraine will be unaffected. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the announced reduction must be imposed by Gazprom without Ukraine's consent; a reduction resulting from a request by Ukraine or a negotiation between the two parties will not resolve the question. An official announcement is one made by a spokesperson for Gazprom. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of Gazprom who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of Gazprom. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. An Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU must be officially signed and be publicly announced in the media. The condition will have occurred once signing is completed. It does not require the agreement to go into effect. An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson for Ukraine and/or for the EU. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of Ukraine and/or the EU who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of Ukraine and/or the EU. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/orŒæhttp://www.reuters.com/ŒæorŒæhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g. RFERL), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 9/19/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 NA Gazprom Ukraine NA 2 If Ukraine and the European Union (EU) sign an Association Agreement beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1266-2 2 Before 1 March 2014, will Gazprom announce that it has unilaterally reduced natural-gas exports to Ukraine? In 2012, Ukraine and the EU initialed an Association Agreement (see http://eeas.europa.eu/top_stories/2012/140912_ukraine_en.htm). Russian officials have threatened to impose "protective measures" if that agreement is signed (see http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-ukraine-trade-deal-putin-warning/250834äó_), and the government of Russia owns a controlling stake in Gazprom. For the resolution of this question, Gazprom must announce a reduction or cessation of natural gas exports to Ukraine before 1 March 2014. Merely announcing the intention to cut off the exports will not suffice for a positive resolution; the announcement must state that a reduction or cessation has in fact occurred. A "yes" resolution will occur even if this announcement focuses solely on gas exports bound for domestic consumption in Ukraine, that is, even if Gazprom specifies that exports that are bound for third parties but transshipped via Ukraine will be unaffected. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the announced reduction must be imposed by Gazprom without Ukraine's consent; a reduction resulting from a request by Ukraine or a negotiation between the two parties will not resolve the question. An official announcement is one made by a spokesperson for Gazprom. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of Gazprom who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of Gazprom. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. An Association Agreement between Ukraine and the EU must be officially signed and be publicly announced in the media. The condition will have occurred once signing is completed. It does not require the agreement to go into effect. An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson for Ukraine and/or for the EU. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of Ukraine and/or the EU who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of Ukraine and/or the EU. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats of withdrawal, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/orŒæhttp://www.reuters.com/ŒæorŒæhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g. RFERL), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/19/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 2/28/2014 b Gazprom Ukraine 162 2 If Ukraine and the European Union (EU) do not sign an Association Agreement beforehand. : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1269-1 1 Will the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) complete its initial on-site inspections of Syria's declared chemical weapons sites before 1 December 2013? "The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is the implementing body of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which entered into force in 1997." (http://www.opcw.org/about-opcw/). On 14 September, the US and Russia announced a framework for elimination of Syrian chemical weapons (CW) that calls for the OPCW to complete initial on-site inspections of declared CW sites by November and that commits both countries to work together for prompt adoption of a UNSC resolution reinforcing a decision of the OPCW Executive Council concerning the process for destroying Syria's CW and verification thereof (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/09/214247.htm). *Initial on-site inspections shall be defined to include inspections of all CW sites that Syria declares to the OPCW, unless the OPCW officially announces a more limited list of sites for the "initial" round of inspections before December 1st. For purposes of this question, only inspections officially authorized by the OPCW will count, but those inspections may be conducted by UN inspectors, contractors or OPCW employees. Inspections that occurred prior to the launch date of this question will count toward a "yes" resolution only if the OPCW explicitly states that it is relying on those inspections as part of its own review of Syrian CW sites. A "yes" resolution for the main question requires that the completion of initial on-site inspections of Syria's declared CW sites must be officially announced in the media. An official announcement is one made by a spokesperson for the OPCW. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique posted to the OPCW web site (http://www.opcw.org/news-publications/). Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the OPCW who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. For a äóìyesäó� resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the äóìstatus quoäó� outcome will be assumed (i.e., for the main question, that initial on-site inspections have not been concluded and for the condition, that the UNSC has not adopted a resolution directly concerning Syria's CW program). A resolution "directly concerning" Syrian chemical weapons means that the resolution's target must be the chemical weapons arsenal of Syria. On the other hand, a UNSC resolution on "Syria" generally or a passing mention of Syria in a UNSC resolution on "the Middle East" will be considered insufficient for a "yes" resolution. A "new resolution" means a UNSC resolution with a new and unique id number (http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2013.shtml). This condition parallels question 1268 and will resolve concordantly. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
closed 9/19/2013 10/27/2013 9:00:00 AM 10/30/2013 10/27/2013 a Syria OPCW Inspections 38 2 If the U.N. Security Council passes a resolution directly concerning Syria : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1269-2 2 Will the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) complete its initial on-site inspections of Syria's declared chemical weapons sites before 1 December 2013? "The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons is the implementing body of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC), which entered into force in 1997." (http://www.opcw.org/about-opcw/). On 14 September, the US and Russia announced a framework for elimination of Syrian chemical weapons (CW) that calls for the OPCW to complete initial on-site inspections of declared CW sites by November and that commits both countries to work together for prompt adoption of a UNSC resolution reinforcing a decision of the OPCW Executive Council concerning the process for destroying Syria's CW and verification thereof (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2013/09/214247.htm). *Initial on-site inspections shall be defined to include inspections of all CW sites that Syria declares to the OPCW, unless the OPCW officially announces a more limited list of sites for the "initial" round of inspections before December 1st. For purposes of this question, only inspections officially authorized by the OPCW will count, but those inspections may be conducted by UN inspectors, contractors or OPCW employees. Inspections that occurred prior to the launch date of this question will count toward a "yes" resolution only if the OPCW explicitly states that it is relying on those inspections as part of its own review of Syrian CW sites. A "yes" resolution for the main question requires that the completion of initial on-site inspections of Syria's declared CW sites must be officially announced in the media. An official announcement is one made by a spokesperson for the OPCW. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique posted to the OPCW web site (http://www.opcw.org/news-publications/). Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the OPCW who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. For a äóìyesäó� resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the äóìstatus quoäó� outcome will be assumed (i.e., for the main question, that initial on-site inspections have not been concluded and for the condition, that the UNSC has not adopted a resolution directly concerning Syria's CW program). A resolution "directly concerning" Syrian chemical weapons means that the resolution's target must be the chemical weapons arsenal of Syria. On the other hand, a UNSC resolution on "Syria" generally or a passing mention of Syria in a UNSC resolution on "the Middle East" will be considered insufficient for a "yes" resolution. A "new resolution" means a UNSC resolution with a new and unique id number (http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/2013.shtml). This condition parallels question 1268 and will resolve concordantly. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
voided 9/19/2013 10/27/2013 9:00:00 AM 10/30/2013 NA Syria OPCW Inspections NA 2 If the U.N. Security Council does not pass a resolution directly concerning Syria : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1270-1 1 Will defense expenditures in Japan's initial draft budget for fiscal year 2014 exceed 1 percent of projected gross national product (GNP)? Since the mid-1970s, Japan's governments have generally adhered to an informal norm that limits defense spending to less than 1 percent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). This policy was established in the 1970s (http://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/01/world/tokyo-arms-budget-political-limits.html), barely but significantly violated a few times in the late 1980s (e.g., http://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/04/weekinreview/in-defense-japan-puts-a-toe-over-the-1-line.html), and has been followed ever since. At present, however, tensions with China appear to be increasing upward pressure on Japan's defense spending (see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-defense-spending-to-increase-for-first-time-in-11-years.html). The initial draft budget for fiscal year 2014 is expected to be published in January 2014 by Japan's Ministry of Finance. For examples from past years, see http://www.mof.go.jp/english/budget/budget/index.html. Around the same time, the Cabinet Office is expected to publish its Fiscal 2014 Economic Outlook; for the 2013 version, see http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/2013/0128mitoshi-e.pdf. Resolution will be based on the ratio of proposed spending on national defense in the initial draft budget to projected GDP for FY2014 in the Economic Outlook report. The numerator in this ratio will be the National Defense line item in the Changes in Major Budget Expenditure table in the "Highlights of the Budget for FY2014" document (or its equivalent) published by the Ministry of Finance. The denominator for this ratio will be the figure in the row labeled "Gross Domestic Product" and the column labeled "FY2014 (forecast)" from the table on the first page of the FY2014 Economic Outlook (or its equivalent). A "yes" resolution will occur if the resulting ratio is equal to or greater than 0.01. The question will remain open until both the FY2014 initial draft budget and economic outlook have been published at the sites referenced above. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A "significant clash" is a direct interaction that produces at least 5 deaths in total from either side. An interaction described as an accident would still produce a "yes" resolution if it produces at least 5 deaths. "Between Japanese and Chinese official military forces" means that the clash in question must involve official military members of both states' armed forces, to include coast guards. *Official military force refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "official military" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Condition will be resolved based on reporting from Japan's Ministry of Finance website and/or one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status-quo" outcome (outcome (b) for the condition) will typically be assumed, but administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
voided 10/9/2013 NULL 1/31/2014 NA Japan Defense Budget NA 2 If any significant clash between Japanese and Chinese official military forces occurs beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1270-2 2 Will defense expenditures in Japan's initial draft budget for fiscal year 2014 exceed 1 percent of projected gross national product (GNP)? Since the mid-1970s, Japan's governments have generally adhered to an informal norm that limits defense spending to less than 1 percent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). This policy was established in the 1970s (http://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/01/world/tokyo-arms-budget-political-limits.html), barely but significantly violated a few times in the late 1980s (e.g., http://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/04/weekinreview/in-defense-japan-puts-a-toe-over-the-1-line.html), and has been followed ever since. At present, however, tensions with China appear to be increasing upward pressure on Japan's defense spending (see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-defense-spending-to-increase-for-first-time-in-11-years.html). The initial draft budget for fiscal year 2014 is expected to be published in January 2014 by Japan's Ministry of Finance. For examples from past years, see http://www.mof.go.jp/english/budget/budget/index.html. Around the same time, the Cabinet Office is expected to publish its Fiscal 2014 Economic Outlook; for the 2013 version, see http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/2013/0128mitoshi-e.pdf. Resolution will be based on the ratio of proposed spending on national defense in the initial draft budget to projected GDP for FY2014 in the Economic Outlook report. The numerator in this ratio will be the National Defense line item in the Changes in Major Budget Expenditure table in the "Highlights of the Budget for FY2014" document (or its equivalent) published by the Ministry of Finance. The denominator for this ratio will be the figure in the row labeled "Gross Domestic Product" and the column labeled "FY2014 (forecast)" from the table on the first page of the FY2014 Economic Outlook (or its equivalent). A "yes" resolution will occur if the resulting ratio is equal to or greater than 0.01. The question will remain open until both the FY2014 initial draft budget and economic outlook have been published at the sites referenced above. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A "significant clash" is a direct interaction that produces at least 5 deaths in total from either side. An interaction described as an accident would still produce a "yes" resolution if it produces at least 5 deaths. "Between Japanese and Chinese official military forces" means that the clash in question must involve official military members of both states' armed forces, to include coast guards. *Official military force refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "official military" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Condition will be resolved based on reporting from Japan's Ministry of Finance website and/or one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status-quo" outcome (outcome (b) for the condition) will typically be assumed, but administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void.
voided 10/9/2013 NULL 1/31/2014 NA Japan Defense Budget NA 2 If no significant clashes between Japanese and Chinese official military forces occur beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1271-1 1 Before 1 March 2014, will North Korea conduct anotherŒæsuccessful nuclear detonation? "Nuclear detonation" refers to any detonation of a nuclear weapon or related device that is described by the press as a "nuclear detonation" (e.g.,http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/18/us-nuclear-northkorea-test-idUSBRäó_). U.N. Security Council resolution 1718 concerns North Koreaäó»s nuclear weapons program, and implementation of targeted sanctions enabled by that resolution is overseen by a committee (seeŒæhttp://www.un.org/sc/committees/1718/).ŒæNorth Korea last conducted an underground nuclear test on February 12, 2013. A successful detonation of a nuclear device is defined as a detonation where a chain reaction occurs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction), whether that detonation occurs as a test explosion or as an actual military attack. Note that computer simulations or controlled chain reactions within nuclear reactors do not constitute detonation of nuclear devices, and so-called "dirty" bombs do not constitute nuclear devices. A failed detonation will not suffice for an affirmative resolution.ŒæFor a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ŒæorŒæhttp://www.reuters.com/Œæorhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g. RFERL), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 9/19/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 NA N Korea Nuclear Test NA 2 If the United Nations committee established pursuant to Security Council resolution 1718 adds any further names to its list of designated persons or entities beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1271-2 2 Before 1 March 2014, will North Korea conduct anotherŒæsuccessful nuclear detonation? "Nuclear detonation" refers to any detonation of a nuclear weapon or related device that is described by the press as a "nuclear detonation" (e.g.,http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/18/us-nuclear-northkorea-test-idUSBRäó_). U.N. Security Council resolution 1718 concerns North Koreaäó»s nuclear weapons program, and implementation of targeted sanctions enabled by that resolution is overseen by a committee (seeŒæhttp://www.un.org/sc/committees/1718/).ŒæNorth Korea last conducted an underground nuclear test on February 12, 2013. A successful detonation of a nuclear device is defined as a detonation where a chain reaction occurs (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction), whether that detonation occurs as a test explosion or as an actual military attack. Note that computer simulations or controlled chain reactions within nuclear reactors do not constitute detonation of nuclear devices, and so-called "dirty" bombs do not constitute nuclear devices. A failed detonation will not suffice for an affirmative resolution.ŒæFor a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ŒæorŒæhttp://www.reuters.com/Œæorhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g. RFERL), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 9/19/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 2/28/2014 b N Korea Nuclear Test 162 2 If the United Nations committee established pursuant to Security Council resolution 1718 does not add any further names to its list of designated persons or entities beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1274-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will any non-U.S. actor use, in a lethal confrontation, either a firearm containing a critical part made with 3D printing technology or a lethal explosive device containing a critical part made with 3D printing technology? 3D technology is described here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing. "Critical part" means that the part cannot be redundant, purely decorative, or unnecessary for the device to function correctly. "Make" means that the 3D printer was used to make the part itself, not just a mold. "Firearm" refers to a weapon, especially a pistol or rifle, capable of firing a projectile and using an explosive charge as a propellant. "Lethal confrontation" is defined as one that causes at least one death. "A lethal explosive device" is any device that creates an explosion and causes at least one death. "Non-U.S. actor" means someone who is not a citizen of the United States, not part of the U.S. military or U.S. law enforcement, and the event cannot occur on the territory of the United States (exclusive of embassies). Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed, (no fatalities from 3D-printed explosive devices or from 3D-printed firearms). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/20/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b 3d Printing in Lethal Confrontation 161 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1275-1 1 Between 25 September 2013 and 31 March 2014, will any members or alternate members of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China be arrested on charges of bribery, embezzlement, or abuse of power? The Central Committee is the highest authority in the Communist Party of China (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Committee_of_the_Communist_Party_of_China). A "yes" resolution requires that the individual in question be a member or alternate member of the 18th Central Committee, which was selected in 2012 at the 18th Central Party Congress. An arrest of a member of a previous Committee who is not also a member or alternate member of the 18th Committee would not produce a "yes" resolution. A "yes" resolution does not require that the individual or individuals in question be tried or convicted, only that an arrest is made in conjunction with one or more of the following charges: bribery, embezzlement, or abuse of power. (These are the offenses with which Bo Xilai was charged; see http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/09/22/bo-xilai-the-charges/.) A later decision to drop the original charges would not invalidate a prior "yes" resolution. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then outcome (b) will typically be assumed, but administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Condition will resolve according to figures reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on this page of its web site (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/Quarterlydata/index.htm) in the row labeled "Gross Domestic Product (GDP)". Given the question's launch date, a positive resolution for (a) can only occur if the National Bureau of Statistics reports an annualized GDP growth rate over the same period the previous year on that page of that site for Q2, Q3, or Q4 2013 and the outcome has not already occurred. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at or after the start (00:00:00 ET) of the earlier date and at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the later date. voided 9/25/2013 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 NA China Corruption NA 2 If China reports an annualized quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate below 7.5 percent beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1275-2 2 Between 25 September 2013 and 31 March 2014, will any members or alternate members of the 18th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China be arrested on charges of bribery, embezzlement, or abuse of power? The Central Committee is the highest authority in the Communist Party of China (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Central_Committee_of_the_Communist_Party_of_China). A "yes" resolution requires that the individual in question be a member or alternate member of the 18th Central Committee, which was selected in 2012 at the 18th Central Party Congress. An arrest of a member of a previous Committee who is not also a member or alternate member of the 18th Committee would not produce a "yes" resolution. A "yes" resolution does not require that the individual or individuals in question be tried or convicted, only that an arrest is made in conjunction with one or more of the following charges: bribery, embezzlement, or abuse of power. (These are the offenses with which Bo Xilai was charged; see http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/09/22/bo-xilai-the-charges/.) A later decision to drop the original charges would not invalidate a prior "yes" resolution. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then outcome (b) will typically be assumed, but administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Condition will resolve according to figures reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on this page of its web site (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/Quarterlydata/index.htm) in the row labeled "Gross Domestic Product (GDP)". Given the question's launch date, a positive resolution for (a) can only occur if the National Bureau of Statistics reports an annualized GDP growth rate over the same period the previous year on that page of that site for Q2, Q3, or Q4 2013 and the outcome has not already occurred. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at or after the start (00:00:00 ET) of the earlier date and at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the later date. closed 9/25/2013 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/31/2014 b China Corruption 187 2 If China does not report an annualized quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate below 7.5 percent beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1276-0 0 Before or during its next plenary meeting, will the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China announce that it plans to reform the hukou system nationwide by 2015? The hukou system is a system of household registration in China that links social benefits like health care, education, and pensions to a person's place of birth (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hukou_system). Current practice requires citizens in most parts of the country to return to their hometowns to receive social benefits, but many observers are now calling for reforms that would allow citizens to receive benefits in their place of residence as well as a way to stimulate economic growth and preserve social stability (see http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2013/08/19/is-hukou-reform-the-key-to-reviving-chinas-economy/). The Central Committee as currently composed is expected to hold its third plenary meeting in November 2013, and Party leaders have launched other major reforms during third plenaries in the past (see http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/indepth/2013-08/30/c_125287154.htm). A "yes" resolution requires a public statement by an official representative of the Communist Party of China stating that hukou reform will be implemented nationwide before 1 January 2015. Reforms limited to certain localities or provinces will not suffice to produce a "yes" resolution; proposed reforms must apply nationwide. The announced changes do not have to occur at the same time in all parts of the country, but the plan announced by the Party or government must state that implementation of the proposed reforms will be completed nationwide before 1 January 2015. An announcement that the Party or government is studying or will study hukou reform will not produce a "yes" resolution; the announcement must state that the Party or government is in fact reforming or plans to reform the hukou system. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then outcome (b) will typically be assumed, but administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. The question will remain open until the next plenary meeting is completed, as long as it is completed before 1 January 2015. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/9/2013 11/11/2013 9:00:00 AM 11/30/2013 11/11/2013 b China Hukou Reform 33 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1277-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will Russia sign an agreement with the de facto government of South Ossetia delineating the border between the two? In early September 2013, President Putin issued an order instructing Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to hold negotiations with the de facto government of South Ossetia over delineation of the border between the two and to sign it in the name of the government of the Russian Federation (see http://www.rferl.org/content/georgia-protest-russia-ossetia/25105021.html and http://dfwatch.net/russia-and-south-ossetia-to-sign-border-agreement-58230). In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Per NATO, a Membership Action Plan is "a NATO programme of advice, assistance, and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance. Participation in the MAP does not prejudge any decision by the Alliance on future membership" (see http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37356.htm). Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 10/9/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA Russia / South Ossetia NA 2 If NATO offers a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1277-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will Russia sign an agreement with the de facto government of South Ossetia delineating the border between the two? In early September 2013, President Putin issued an order instructing Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to hold negotiations with the de facto government of South Ossetia over delineation of the border between the two and to sign it in the name of the government of the Russian Federation (see http://www.rferl.org/content/georgia-protest-russia-ossetia/25105021.html and http://dfwatch.net/russia-and-south-ossetia-to-sign-border-agreement-58230). In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Per NATO, a Membership Action Plan is "a NATO programme of advice, assistance, and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance. Participation in the MAP does not prejudge any decision by the Alliance on future membership" (see http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_37356.htm). Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/9/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Russia / South Ossetia 203 2 If NATO does not offer a Membership Action Plan (MAP) to Georgia beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1278-0 0 Will the *M-PESA system have a failure that results in at least 100,000 subscribers losing all ability to send and receive money from their accounts for at least 48 hours before 31 December 2013? M-PESA is a mobile-phone-based money transfer and microfinancing service for Safaricom and Vodacom, the largest mobile network operators in Kenya and Tanzania (http://www.safaricom.co.ke/personal/m-pesa/m-pesa-services-tariffs/relax-you-have-got-m-pesa). Currently the most developed mobile payment system in the world, M-PESA allows users with a national ID card or passport to deposit, withdraw, and transfer money easily with a mobile device. For the resolution of this question, "system have a failure" means a complete failure, i.e. subscribers will not be able to either send or receive funds for at least 48 hours, and affect at least 100,000 subscribers in any region where the system is operational, i.e. Kenya, Tanzania, Afghanistan, and/or India. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then outcome (b) will typically be assumed, but administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
closed 10/9/2013 12/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/30/2013 12/30/2013 b M-PESA Failure 82 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1279-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a formal peace agreement? In 2012, the government of Colombia began formal peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the country's largest rebel group. "Sign" means that a formal peace agreement has been reached and signed by both parties. A "yes" resolution to this question would require official announcements from both the government of Columbia and the FARC to the effect that both parties have formally signed the peace agreement. A public signing ceremony would be considered one type of public announcement and so would produce a "yes" resolution. Announcement that an agreement has been reached would not produce a "yes" resolution; the agreement must be formally signed by both sides. An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson or someone authorized to speak on behalf of the FARC. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government and the FARC who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government and the FARC. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/16/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Colombia / FARC peace agreement 196 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1281-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will any U.N. member state offer diplomatic recognition to the government of a new state on what is now territory of Syria, Turkey, or Iraq? "New state" refers to a state whose territory comprises part but not all of one or more of the territories currently recognized as Syria, Turkey, or Iraq. A transference of recognition from the extant government to a new one in an existing state (e.g., to a "government in exile") would only resolve as "yes" if the territory recognized as belonging to the new government differed from the territory recognized as belonging to the old (e.g., a rump state). Diplomatic recognition involves a formal public statement made by one government acknowledging the existence of another. An exchange of diplomats or a visit by a high-level official does not suffice; the government of a U.N. Member State must publicly state its recognition of the other. "Offer" means that a U.N. member state may offer diplomatic recognition in a public statement but for the resolution of this question, the "new state" does not need to accept recognition. An official announcement must be made by a spokesperson for a U.N. member state or government to constitute an "offer." "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome (i.e., no new state has been recognized) typically will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/16/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b New State in Syria Turkey Iraq 196 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1283-0 0 Will the Democratic Republic of Congo experience a cessation of insurgency between November 2013 and April 2014? "Insurgency" refers to multiple, violent attacks on state targets (e.g., state security forces or governing officials) carried out by an organized, non-state opposition group or groups that seek to overthrow the current government. Patterns of violent attacks by organizations that seek autonomy or independence are considered separatist rebellions, not insurgencies, and do not qualify. "Between November 2013 and April 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of November 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of April 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent examples of cessations of insurgency identified by ICEWS include Paraguay in April 2012, Ivory Coast in May 2011, Tajikistan in December 2010, and Bangladesh in December 2010. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. voided 10/23/2013 NULL 4/30/2014 NA Congo Insurgency NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1285-0 0 Will Honduras experience an onset of domestic political crisis between November 2013 and April 2014? "Domestic political crisis" refers to an episode of widespread protests or clashes that are tied to opposition to the government and provoke a government response. Isolated events and small, peaceful protests are not sufficient to cross the threshold for a domestic political crisis. Likewise, patterns of violent attacks on state targets are identified with rebellion and insurgency and therefore are not considered indicative of a domestic political crisis. "Between November 2013 and April 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of November 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of April 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent onsets of domestic political crisis observed by ICEWS include Turkey in May 2013, Algeria in April 2013, Yemen in March 2013, and Bulgaria in February 2013. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. voided 10/23/2013 NULL 4/30/2014 NA Honduras political crisis NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1286-0 0 Will Ecuador experience an onset of international crisis between December 2013 and April 2014? "International crisis" refers to a period of elevated military threat or violent conflict between two states. Any military attack by one state on the other qualifies as an international crisis. Absent direct attacks, an international crisis occurs when a) one or both states make new threats against the other and b) those threats are explicitly military in nature. "Between December 2013 and April 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of December 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of April 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent examples of onsets of international crisis observed by ICEWS include Taiwan in May 2013, Philippines in May 2013, Mali in January 2013, and India in January 2013. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. voided 11/20/2013 NULL 4/30/2014 NA Ecuador International Crisis NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1288-0 0 Will Venezuela experience an onset of domestic political crisis between December 2013 and April 2014? "Domestic political crisis" refers to an episode of widespread protests or clashes that are tied to opposition to the government and provoke a government response. Isolated events and small, peaceful protests are not sufficient to cross the threshold for a domestic political crisis. Likewise, patterns of violent attacks on state targets are identified with rebellion and insurgency and therefore are not considered indicative of a domestic political crisis. "Between December 2013 and April 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of December 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of April 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent onsets of domestic political crisis observed by ICEWS include Turkey in May 2013, Algeria in April 2013, Yemen in March 2013, and Bulgaria in February 2013. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. closed 11/20/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 2/28/2014 a Venezuela Political Crisis 100 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1289-1 1 Before 1 December 2013, will the government of Pakistan and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan announce that they have agreed to engage in direct talks with one another? For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, is a militant group engaged in an insurgency that has cost more than 50,000 lives. During his electoral campaign, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif promised to pursue a peace deal with the group. (See http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/prime-minister-nawaz-sharifs-effort-to-seek-peace-with-pakistani-taliban-off-to-rocky-start/2013/09/19/a621f69e-20a2-11e3-a358-1144dee636dd_story.html). A "yes" resolution to this question would require official announcements from both the government of Pakistan and the Supreme Council of Tahrik-i-Taliban Pakistan to the effect that both parties have agreed to engage in direct talks with one another. "Direct talks" are ones in which official representatives of the two sides would meet in person. Talks that would be conducted solely through intermediaries or interlocutors would be indirect and would not resolve the question. Having other people and parties present in the room along with government and Taliban representatives would not negate the direct aspect of the talks and therefore will not affect the resolution of the question. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcements must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government and the Pakistani Taliban who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Direct talks do not have to happen for a "yes" resolution to occur; official announcements that the parties have agreed to engage in direct talks will suffice. On 14 September 2013, Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud asserted that withdrawal of Pakistani troops from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) was a precondition for talks with the government (see http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/09/23/202949/after-pakistani-church-bombing.html#.UkH-Q4YqhLg). Condition (a) will be realized (renouncement of Pakistani withdrawal from FATA) if an official authorized to speak on behalf of the Pakistani Taliban makes a public statement to the effect that the group is withdrawing its demand that Pakistani troops leave the FATA as a precondition for direct talks. Condition and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no announcement of direct talks has occurred, demand of Pakistani withdrawal from FATA is not renounced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., Washington Post, Al Jazeera English), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 10/16/2013 11/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 11/30/2013 NA Pakistan/Taliban Talks NA 2 If the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan renounces its demand that the government of Pakistan withdraw its troops from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1289-2 2 Before 1 December 2013, will the government of Pakistan and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan announce that they have agreed to engage in direct talks with one another? For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, also known as the Pakistani Taliban, is a militant group engaged in an insurgency that has cost more than 50,000 lives. During his electoral campaign, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif promised to pursue a peace deal with the group. (See http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/prime-minister-nawaz-sharifs-effort-to-seek-peace-with-pakistani-taliban-off-to-rocky-start/2013/09/19/a621f69e-20a2-11e3-a358-1144dee636dd_story.html). A "yes" resolution to this question would require official announcements from both the government of Pakistan and the Supreme Council of Tahrik-i-Taliban Pakistan to the effect that both parties have agreed to engage in direct talks with one another. "Direct talks" are ones in which official representatives of the two sides would meet in person. Talks that would be conducted solely through intermediaries or interlocutors would be indirect and would not resolve the question. Having other people and parties present in the room along with government and Taliban representatives would not negate the direct aspect of the talks and therefore will not affect the resolution of the question. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcements must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government and the Pakistani Taliban who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Direct talks do not have to happen for a "yes" resolution to occur; official announcements that the parties have agreed to engage in direct talks will suffice. On 14 September 2013, Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud asserted that withdrawal of Pakistani troops from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) was a precondition for talks with the government (see http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/09/23/202949/after-pakistani-church-bombing.html#.UkH-Q4YqhLg). Condition (a) will be realized (renouncement of Pakistani withdrawal from FATA) if an official authorized to speak on behalf of the Pakistani Taliban makes a public statement to the effect that the group is withdrawing its demand that Pakistani troops leave the FATA as a precondition for direct talks. Condition and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no announcement of direct talks has occurred, demand of Pakistani withdrawal from FATA is not renounced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., Washington Post, Al Jazeera English), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/16/2013 11/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 11/30/2013 11/30/2013 b Pakistan/Taliban Talks 45 2 If the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan does not renounce its demand that the government of Pakistan withdraw its troops from the Federally Administered Tribal Areas beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1290-1 1 Will the president of Brazil come to the United States for an official State Visit before 1 February 2014? For a "yes" resolution to occur, President Rousseff must visit the White House for an event described in a subsequent White House press release as an Official Visit or State Visit. A mere statement of President Rousseff's intention to visit, or President Obama's intention to host a visit, will not suffice. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Boeing does not need to physically provide Brazil with the F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters for the condition to resolve affirmatively; an official statement on the Boeing Defense, Space & Security News Releases page (http://www.boeing.com/boeing/bds/news/index.page?) stating that the government of Brazil has agreed to purchase one or more F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters from Boeing will suffice. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the president of Brazil has not come to U.S. for an official visit (main question), Brazil has not contracted with Boeing to purchase any F/A-18 Super Hornet (condition)). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., Boeing press releases, CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous date. voided 10/16/2013 1/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2014 NA Brazil/US State Visit NA 2 If the government of Brazil contracts with Boeing to purchase any F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1290-2 2 Will the president of Brazil come to the United States for an official State Visit before 1 February 2014? For a "yes" resolution to occur, President Rousseff must visit the White House for an event described in a subsequent White House press release as an Official Visit or State Visit. A mere statement of President Rousseff's intention to visit, or President Obama's intention to host a visit, will not suffice. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Boeing does not need to physically provide Brazil with the F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters for the condition to resolve affirmatively; an official statement on the Boeing Defense, Space & Security News Releases page (http://www.boeing.com/boeing/bds/news/index.page?) stating that the government of Brazil has agreed to purchase one or more F/A-18 Super Hornet fighters from Boeing will suffice. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the president of Brazil has not come to U.S. for an official visit (main question), Brazil has not contracted with Boeing to purchase any F/A-18 Super Hornet (condition)). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., Boeing press releases, CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous date. closed 10/16/2013 1/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2014 1/31/2014 b Brazil/US State Visit 107 2 If the government of Brazil does not contract with Boeing to purchase any F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1292-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will construction begin on the Lamu oil pipeline? The Lamu pipeline is a planned conduit to carry crude oil from Uganda and South Sudan to the Kenyan port of Lamu (see http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21578402-east-africa-danger-throwing-away-part-its-new-found-oil). For a "yes" resolution to occur, either an official ground-breaking must occur, or some other physical work must begin on some portion of the project in any one of the three countries involved. Physical work refers to on-site excavation or construction, as distinct from planning, surveying, or the manufacturing or delivery of materials. An "official" ground-breaking would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique by one or more of the governments of Uganda, South Sudan, or Kenya, or by a private firm contracted to do the work. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the relevant government or firm who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., construction on the pipeline has not begun) typically will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/16/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Lamu Pipeline 196 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1293-1 1 Will the INC (India National Congress) win more seats than any other party in the Lok Sabha in the 2014 General Elections in India? The Indian National Congress (abbreviated INC, and commonly known as the Congress Party) is one of the two major political parties in India, the other being the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The 15th Lok Sabha will complete its constitutional term on May 31, 2014. Under the terms of India's constitution, elections for the 16th Lok Sabha must be held before that date, but the question will remain open until the results of the general election of the 16th Lok Sabha are reported by one of the below sources. India's Labour Bureau releases a report on the Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers on a monthly basis, and that report includes a summary figure for the country as a whole called the All India Index (http://labourbureau.gov.in/indnum.htm). The condition will resolve as "yes" if the Labour Bureau reports an All India Index for Agricultural Labourers equal to or greater than 800 for at least one month between October 2013 and the election, as reported on the Labour Bureau's webpage in the top table. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Therefore, if India's Labour Bureau releases the All India Index for the month of the election or the month prior to the election after the actual election occurs, these figures will not be used to resolve the condition. Only All India Index figures released prior to the election will resolve the condition. The condition will be resolved based on reporting from India's Labour Bureau at the link mentioned above, in the top table of the webpage. If nothing is reported by this source, administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed for both the question and the condition (e.g., INC will not win more seats than any other party, the all-India Consumer Price Index will be less than 800). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 10/23/2013 5/16/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2014 NA India General Elections NA 2 If the all-India Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers is equal to or greater than 800 before the election takes place : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1293-2 2 Will the INC (India National Congress) win more seats than any other party in the Lok Sabha in the 2014 General Elections in India? The Indian National Congress (abbreviated INC, and commonly known as the Congress Party) is one of the two major political parties in India, the other being the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The 15th Lok Sabha will complete its constitutional term on May 31, 2014. Under the terms of India's constitution, elections for the 16th Lok Sabha must be held before that date, but the question will remain open until the results of the general election of the 16th Lok Sabha are reported by one of the below sources. India's Labour Bureau releases a report on the Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers on a monthly basis, and that report includes a summary figure for the country as a whole called the All India Index (http://labourbureau.gov.in/indnum.htm). The condition will resolve as "yes" if the Labour Bureau reports an All India Index for Agricultural Labourers equal to or greater than 800 for at least one month between October 2013 and the election, as reported on the Labour Bureau's webpage in the top table. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Therefore, if India's Labour Bureau releases the All India Index for the month of the election or the month prior to the election after the actual election occurs, these figures will not be used to resolve the condition. Only All India Index figures released prior to the election will resolve the condition. The condition will be resolved based on reporting from India's Labour Bureau at the link mentioned above, in the top table of the webpage. If nothing is reported by this source, administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed for both the question and the condition (e.g., INC will not win more seats than any other party, the all-India Consumer Price Index will be less than 800). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/23/2013 5/16/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2014 5/16/2014 b India General Elections 205 2 If the all-India Consumer Price Index for Agricultural Labourers is not equal to or greater than 800 before the election takes place. : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1294-0 0 Before 1 April 2014, will the government of Syria and the Syrian Supreme Military Command announce that they have agreed to a cease-fire? Formed in December 2012, the Syrian Supreme Military Command (SMC) is a 30-member council comprising many top field commanders from various rebel groups across Syria. Its purpose is to provide a unified command structure for the forces fighting to topple the Assad regime. It is also known as the Supreme Joint Military Command Council. "Government of Syria" refers to the body that is recognized by most U.N. member states as the legitimate government of Syria, regardless of which individuals lead or comprise it. A "yes" resolution to this question would require official announcements from both the government of Syria and the SMC. A statement from the Syrian National Council on behalf of rebel forces would substitute for a statement from the SMC, as long as it is not refuted or contradicted within 48 hours by an official statement from the SMC. Membership changes to the SMC, or an official name change, will not affect the resolution of the question. However, a cease fire aggreed to by other rebel groups will not be sufficient for a "yes" resolution. The SMC, or its successor organization, must offically aggree to a ceasefire. If the SMC disintegrates the question will resolve as a "no". "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government or the SMC who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. The cease-fire does not have to take effect or hold for a "yes" resolution to occur, only to be officially announced. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., a cease-fire has not been announced). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous date. closed 11/13/2013 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/31/2014 b Syrian Cease Fire 138 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1295-1 1 Will defense expenditures in Japan's initial draft budget for fiscal year 2014 exceed 1 percent of projected gross domestic product (GDP)? Since the mid-1970s, Japan's governments have generally adhered to an informal norm that limits defense spending to less than 1 percent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). This policy was established in the 1970s (http://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/01/world/tokyo-arms-budget-political-limits.html), barely but significantly violated a few times in the late 1980s (e.g., http://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/04/weekinreview/in-defense-japan-puts-a-toe-over-the-1-line.html), and has been followed ever since. At present, however, tensions with China appear to be creating upward pressure on Japan's defense spending (see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-defense-spending-to-increase-for-first-time-in-11-years.html). The initial draft budget for fiscal year 2014 is expected to be published in January 2014 by Japan's Ministry of Finance. For examples from past years, see http://www.mof.go.jp/english/budget/budget/index.html. Around the same time, the Cabinet Office is expected to publish its Fiscal 2014 Economic Outlook; for the 2013 version, see http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/2013/0128mitoshi-e.pdf. Resolution will be based on the ratio of proposed spending on national defense in the initial draft budget to projected GDP for FY2014 in the Economic Outlook report (converted into a percentage). The numerator in this ratio will be the National Defense line item in the Changes in Major Budget Expenditure table in the "Highlights of the Budget for FY2014" document (or its equivalent) published by the Ministry of Finance. The denominator for this ratio will be the figure in the row labeled "Gross Domestic Product" and the column labeled "FY2014 (forecast)" from the table on the first page of the FY2014 Economic Outlook (or its equivalent). A "yes" resolution will occur if the resulting ratio is equal to or greater than 0.01, e.g. 1%. The question will remain open until both the FY2014 initial draft budget and economic outlook have been published at the sites referenced above. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A "significant clash" is a direct interaction that produces at least 5 deaths in total from either side. An interaction described as an accident would still produce a "yes" resolution if it produces at least 5 deaths. "Between Japanese and Chinese official military forces" means that the clash in question must involve official military members of both states' armed forces, to include coast guards. *Official military force refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "official military" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from Japan's Ministry of Finance website and the condition will be resolved based on one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status-quo" outcome ("no significant clash" for the condition and "defense spending does not exceed 1% of projected GDP" for the main question ) will typically be assumed, but administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. voided 10/16/2013 12/23/2013 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2014 NA Japan Defense Budget NA 2 If any significant clash between Japanese and Chinese official military forces occurs beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1295-2 2 Will defense expenditures in Japan's initial draft budget for fiscal year 2014 exceed 1 percent of projected gross domestic product (GDP)? Since the mid-1970s, Japan's governments have generally adhered to an informal norm that limits defense spending to less than 1 percent of projected gross domestic product (GDP). This policy was established in the 1970s (http://www.nytimes.com/1983/01/01/world/tokyo-arms-budget-political-limits.html), barely but significantly violated a few times in the late 1980s (e.g., http://www.nytimes.com/1987/01/04/weekinreview/in-defense-japan-puts-a-toe-over-the-1-line.html), and has been followed ever since. At present, however, tensions with China appear to be creating upward pressure on Japan's defense spending (see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-29/japan-s-defense-spending-to-increase-for-first-time-in-11-years.html). The initial draft budget for fiscal year 2014 is expected to be published in January 2014 by Japan's Ministry of Finance. For examples from past years, see http://www.mof.go.jp/english/budget/budget/index.html. Around the same time, the Cabinet Office is expected to publish its Fiscal 2014 Economic Outlook; for the 2013 version, see http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/2013/0128mitoshi-e.pdf. Resolution will be based on the ratio of proposed spending on national defense in the initial draft budget to projected GDP for FY2014 in the Economic Outlook report (converted into a percentage). The numerator in this ratio will be the National Defense line item in the Changes in Major Budget Expenditure table in the "Highlights of the Budget for FY2014" document (or its equivalent) published by the Ministry of Finance. The denominator for this ratio will be the figure in the row labeled "Gross Domestic Product" and the column labeled "FY2014 (forecast)" from the table on the first page of the FY2014 Economic Outlook (or its equivalent). A "yes" resolution will occur if the resulting ratio is equal to or greater than 0.01, e.g. 1%. The question will remain open until both the FY2014 initial draft budget and economic outlook have been published at the sites referenced above. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." A "significant clash" is a direct interaction that produces at least 5 deaths in total from either side. An interaction described as an accident would still produce a "yes" resolution if it produces at least 5 deaths. "Between Japanese and Chinese official military forces" means that the clash in question must involve official military members of both states' armed forces, to include coast guards. *Official military force refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "official military" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, "rebels," independent militias, or terrorist actors. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from Japan's Ministry of Finance website and the condition will be resolved based on one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status-quo" outcome ("no significant clash" for the condition and "defense spending does not exceed 1% of projected GDP" for the main question ) will typically be assumed, but administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. closed 10/16/2013 12/23/2013 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2014 12/23/2013 b Japan Defense Budget 68 2 If no significant clash between Japanese and Chinese official military forces occurs beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1297-1 1 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy *officially reopen before 31 December 2013? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Note that "official" reopening would require some kind of formal announcement that diplomatic representatives have returned to their posts at the consent or invitation of their foreign government hosts. Any partial or limited re-opening (e.g., to provide basic paperwork or procedural assistance to travelers or expatriates) would not in and of itself qualify as an "official" reopening. The formal announcement of the reopening must be made by an official spokesperson for either of the governments, i.e. a spokesperson for the government of the embassy or of the host government. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) or the British Embassy in Tehran (http://ukiniran.fco.gov.uk/en/). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed for both the condition and the question (e.g., for a question about embassy closure, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that neither embassy reopened). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 10/23/2013 12/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/30/2013 NA UK Iranian Embassy Reopens NA 2 If the Iranian embassy in London is officially reopened beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1297-2 2 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy *officially reopen before 31 December 2013? In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Note that "official" reopening would require some kind of formal announcement that diplomatic representatives have returned to their posts at the consent or invitation of their foreign government hosts. Any partial or limited re-opening (e.g., to provide basic paperwork or procedural assistance to travelers or expatriates) would not in and of itself qualify as an "official" reopening. The formal announcement of the reopening must be made by an official spokesperson for either of the governments, i.e. a spokesperson for the government of the embassy or of the host government. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com) or the British Embassy in Tehran (http://ukiniran.fco.gov.uk/en/). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed for both the condition and the question (e.g., for a question about embassy closure, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that neither embassy reopened). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 10/23/2013 12/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/30/2013 12/30/2013 b UK Iranian Embassy Reopens 68 2 If the Iranian embassy in London is not officially reopened beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1298-0 0 Will Jordan experience an onset of international crisis between November 2013 and April 2014? "International crisis" refers to a period of elevated military threat or violent conflict between two states. Any military attack by one state on the other qualifies as an international crisis. Absent direct attacks, an international crisis occurs when a) one or both states make new threats against the other and b) those threats are explicitly military in nature. "Between November 2013 and April 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of November 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of April 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent examples of onsets of international crisis identified by ICEWS include Taiwan in May 2013, Philippines in May 2013, Mali in January 2013, and India in January 2013. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. voided 10/23/2013 NULL 4/30/2014 NA Jordan international crisis NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1299-0 0 Will Jordan experience an onset of insurgency between November 2013 and April 2014? "Insurgency" refers to multiple, violent attacks on state targets (e.g., state security forces or governing officials) carried out by an organized, non-state opposition group or groups that seek to overthrow the current government. Patterns of violent attacks by organizations that seek autonomy or independence are considered separatist rebellions, not insurgencies, and do not qualify. "Between November 2013 and April 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of November 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of April 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent examples of onsets of insurgency identified by ICEWS include Tanzania in May 2013, Niger in May 2013, Egypt in August 2012, and Ivory Coast in July 2012. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. voided 10/23/2013 NULL 4/30/2014 NA Jordan insurgency NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1301-1 1 Will Facebook and/or Twitter be available in China's Shanghai Free Trade Zone before 31 March 2014? For a "yes" resolution to occur, either Facebook or Twitter or both must be available to all residents of the Free Trade Zone (not just people with Virtual Private Networks (VPNs)) by the date of the question. China's Shanghai Free Trade Zone means China Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone. "Available" means that all residents of the SFTZ will have full and unlimited access to Facebook and/or Twitter websites. The access must be uninterrupted and uncensored for at least 48 consecutive hours. If the residents of the SFTZ are given access for at least 48 consecutive hours, but the sites are later blocked, it would still produce a "yes" outcome. Outcome will be resolved based on reports from Facebook Profile webpage and/or Twitter official account, or from any of the sources listed below. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. "A foreign telecommunications firm" means only new and previously never used (by China and SFTZ) telecommunications firms. Furthermore, such a firm must be foreign, i.e. not started/originated on Chinese soil and not having its headquarters on any Chinese territory. For the purposes of defining "a foreign telecommunications firm," "Chinese territory" includes the two Chinese Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong and Macau). Companies which meet this criteria, but which are partially owned by a Chinese company or the Chinese government would not count as "foreign" if the Chinese company or government owned a controlling share of the company (51% or more). An official announcement of the license being won by a foreign telecommunications firm must be made either by an official representative of the Chinese government or by an official spokesperson of the winning firm. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government or the winning telecommunications firm who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. Any such foreign telecommunications firm does not need to activate its services in the SFTZ before the date of the question. The mere announcement of winning the license will suffice for the affirmative resolution of the condition. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed, (i.e. Facebook and Twitter are not made available in China's Shanghai Free Trade Zone, no new foreign telecommunications firm wins a license in the SFTZ). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g. RFERL), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 11/6/2013 3/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 NA Facebook/Twitter in Shanghai FTZ NA 2 If a foreign telecommunications firm wins a license to provide Internet services in the zone beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1301-2 2 Will Facebook and/or Twitter be available in China's Shanghai Free Trade Zone before 31 March 2014? For a "yes" resolution to occur, either Facebook or Twitter or both must be available to all residents of the Free Trade Zone (not just people with Virtual Private Networks (VPNs)) by the date of the question. China's Shanghai Free Trade Zone means China Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone. "Available" means that all residents of the SFTZ will have full and unlimited access to Facebook and/or Twitter websites. The access must be uninterrupted and uncensored for at least 48 consecutive hours. If the residents of the SFTZ are given access for at least 48 consecutive hours, but the sites are later blocked, it would still produce a "yes" outcome. Outcome will be resolved based on reports from Facebook Profile webpage and/or Twitter official account, or from any of the sources listed below. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. "A foreign telecommunications firm" means only new and previously never used (by China and SFTZ) telecommunications firms. Furthermore, such a firm must be foreign, i.e. not started/originated on Chinese soil and not having its headquarters on any Chinese territory. For the purposes of defining "a foreign telecommunications firm," "Chinese territory" includes the two Chinese Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong and Macau). Companies which meet this criteria, but which are partially owned by a Chinese company or the Chinese government would not count as "foreign" if the Chinese company or government owned a controlling share of the company (51% or more). An official announcement of the license being won by a foreign telecommunications firm must be made either by an official representative of the Chinese government or by an official spokesperson of the winning firm. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government or the winning telecommunications firm who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports. Any such foreign telecommunications firm does not need to activate its services in the SFTZ before the date of the question. The mere announcement of winning the license will suffice for the affirmative resolution of the condition. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then "status quo" outcome will be assumed, (i.e. Facebook and Twitter are not made available in China's Shanghai Free Trade Zone, no new foreign telecommunications firm wins a license in the SFTZ). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g. RFERL), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/6/2013 3/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/30/2014 b Facebook/Twitter in Shanghai FTZ 144 2 If a foreign telecommunications firm doesn't win a license to provide Internet services in the zone beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1302-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will Russia rescind its law barring US citizens from adopting Russian children? In December 2012, the Russian government adopted a law that includes a provision banning adoptions of Russian children by U.S. citizens (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Magnitsky_bill). A "yes" resolution does not require that the entire federal law 272-FZ be repealed, only that the portion of that law barring adoptions by U.S. citizens be rescinded or otherwise reversed by new law. A partial reversal that allowed adoptions by U.S. citizens only under certain conditions would suffice for a "yes" resolution. A decision by any Russian court to suspend or overturn 272-FZ or this portion of it would also suffice for a "yes" resolution. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. The Geneva 2 talks are a proposed international conference to discuss the cessation of the Syrian civil war and transition to a post-war political regime (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_II_Middle_East_peace_conference). Condition 1 (Russia and the United States participate in the Geneva 2 talks beforehand) will occur if major news sources report that the Geneva 2 talks have opened andthat both Russia and the United States are participating in the conference. Condition 2 (If Russia and the United States do not participate in the Geneva 2 talks beforehand) will occur if the Geneva talks do not convene or if either Russia or the United States do not participate in those talks.The identity of other participants involved in the Geneva 2 talks and the terms of participation will not have bearing on the resolution of the conditions.Condition and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/or http://www.reuters.com/orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the ban remains in place and Russia and the U.S. do not participate in the Geneva 2 talks). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous date. closed 11/6/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Russia Adoption Ban 175 2 If Russia and the United States participate in the Geneva 2 talks on Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1302-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will Russia rescind its law barring US citizens from adopting Russian children? In December 2012, the Russian government adopted a law that includes a provision banning adoptions of Russian children by U.S. citizens (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-Magnitsky_bill). A "yes" resolution does not require that the entire federal law 272-FZ be repealed, only that the portion of that law barring adoptions by U.S. citizens be rescinded or otherwise reversed by new law. A partial reversal that allowed adoptions by U.S. citizens only under certain conditions would suffice for a "yes" resolution. A decision by any Russian court to suspend or overturn 272-FZ or this portion of it would also suffice for a "yes" resolution. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. The Geneva 2 talks are a proposed international conference to discuss the cessation of the Syrian civil war and transition to a post-war political regime (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geneva_II_Middle_East_peace_conference). Condition 1 (Russia and the United States participate in the Geneva 2 talks beforehand) will occur if major news sources report that the Geneva 2 talks have opened andthat both Russia and the United States are participating in the conference. Condition 2 (If Russia and the United States do not participate in the Geneva 2 talks beforehand) will occur if the Geneva talks do not convene or if either Russia or the United States do not participate in those talks.The identity of other participants involved in the Geneva 2 talks and the terms of participation will not have bearing on the resolution of the conditions.Condition and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/or http://www.reuters.com/orhttp://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the ban remains in place and Russia and the U.S. do not participate in the Geneva 2 talks). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous date. voided 11/6/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA Russia Adoption Ban NA 2 If Russia and the United States do not participate in the Geneva 2 talks on Syria beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1304-1 1 Before 1 February 2014, will Iran officially announce that it has agreed to *significantly limit its uranium enrichment process? "Significantly limit" means to stop domestic uranium enrichment, to cap enrichment at 20% purity or less, or to limit uranium enrichment activity to 3,000 centrifuges or fewer. A "yes" resolution requires an official announcement from the government of Iran that it has agreed to cease entirely domestic enrichment of uranium, to stop enriching uranium in Iran above the 20 percent threshold, or to limit domestic enrichment activity to 3,000 or fewer centrifuges. No evidence that Iran has actually ceased enriching uranium at all or above the aforementioned thresholds is required for a "yes" resolution to occur; an official announcement from the government of Iran to any of those effects will suffice. An offer from the government of Iran to adhere to any of these limits will not suffice for a "yes" resolution; only an official announcement from the government of Iran of its intent to adhere to one or more of these limits will produce a "yes" resolution. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Condition (1) will occur (an official announcement by the U.S. of unfreezing any Iranian assets) if the U.S. government officially announces that it is unfreezing any Iranian government assets currently blocked under Iranian Assets Control Regulations - 31 C.F.R Part 535 (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/iran.txt). In all cases, "official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Condition and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (Iran does not announce that it will *significantly limit its uranium enrichment process for the question, and no announcements by the U.S. of unfreezing any Iranian assets for the condition) will typically be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 11/6/2013 11/23/2013 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2014 NA Iran Uranium Enrichment Limits NA 2 If the US officially announces that it is unfreezing any Iranian assets beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1304-2 2 Before 1 February 2014, will Iran officially announce that it has agreed to *significantly limit its uranium enrichment process? "Significantly limit" means to stop domestic uranium enrichment, to cap enrichment at 20% purity or less, or to limit uranium enrichment activity to 3,000 centrifuges or fewer. A "yes" resolution requires an official announcement from the government of Iran that it has agreed to cease entirely domestic enrichment of uranium, to stop enriching uranium in Iran above the 20 percent threshold, or to limit domestic enrichment activity to 3,000 or fewer centrifuges. No evidence that Iran has actually ceased enriching uranium at all or above the aforementioned thresholds is required for a "yes" resolution to occur; an official announcement from the government of Iran to any of those effects will suffice. An offer from the government of Iran to adhere to any of these limits will not suffice for a "yes" resolution; only an official announcement from the government of Iran of its intent to adhere to one or more of these limits will produce a "yes" resolution. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. Condition (1) will occur (an official announcement by the U.S. of unfreezing any Iranian assets) if the U.S. government officially announces that it is unfreezing any Iranian government assets currently blocked under Iranian Assets Control Regulations - 31 C.F.R Part 535 (http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Documents/iran.txt). In all cases, "official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Condition and outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (Iran does not announce that it will *significantly limit its uranium enrichment process for the question, and no announcements by the U.S. of unfreezing any Iranian assets for the condition) will typically be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/6/2013 11/23/2013 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2014 11/23/2013 a Iran Uranium Enrichment Limits 17 2 If the US does not officially announce that it is unfreezing any Iranian assets beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1306-1 1 Will China experience an onset of domestic political crisis between December 2013 and April 2014? "Domestic political crisis" refers to an episode of widespread protests or clashes that are tied to opposition to the government and provoke a government response. Isolated events and small, peaceful protests are not sufficient to cross the threshold for a domestic political crisis. Likewise, patterns of violent attacks on state targets are identified with rebellion and insurgency and therefore are not considered indicative of a domestic political crisis. "Between December 2013 and April 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of December 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of April 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent examples of onsets of domestic political crisis identified by ICEWS include Turkey in May 2013, Algeria in April 2013, Yemen in March 2013, and Bulgaria in February 2013. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. Condition will be resolved according to data produced by the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, which reports the Air Quality Index (AQI) for that city on an hourly basis (http://www.stateair.net/web/post/1/1.html). PM2.5 refers to fine particle pollution (http://www.epa.gov/pmdesignations/). Condition (a) will occur if that source reports an AQI value of 400 or higher at any time between the launch of this question and its resolution. For a near-real-time graphical display of historical data from this source, see http://kopf.github.io/chineseair/. voided 11/20/2013 NULL 4/30/2014 NA China Domestic Political Crisis NA 2 If the Air Quality Index in Beijing exceeds 400 again beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1306-2 2 Will China experience an onset of domestic political crisis between December 2013 and April 2014? "Domestic political crisis" refers to an episode of widespread protests or clashes that are tied to opposition to the government and provoke a government response. Isolated events and small, peaceful protests are not sufficient to cross the threshold for a domestic political crisis. Likewise, patterns of violent attacks on state targets are identified with rebellion and insurgency and therefore are not considered indicative of a domestic political crisis. "Between December 2013 and April 2014" means at any time from 12:00 AM on the first day of December 2013 and 12:00 PM on the last day of April 2014. Outcome will be observed on a monthly basis by the Integrated Conflict Early Warning System (ICEWS) using an algorithm applied to event data coded from an array of international news sources. Observation for the preceding month will occur on or about the fourth day of each subsequent month. For example, a determination of whether or not an onset of rebellion occurred in January will be made by ICEWS on or about 4 February using event data from all of January. Administrator reserves the right to review and overrule those automated monthly determinations in consultation with country and subject-matter experts. Any such review will only occur after ICEWS has delivered its monthly update, however, and will not be used to resolve the question in between those observations. Recent examples of onsets of domestic political crisis identified by ICEWS include Turkey in May 2013, Algeria in April 2013, Yemen in March 2013, and Bulgaria in February 2013. For additional background information on ICEWS (including information about historical "ground truth" determinations for questions similar to this one), see www.goodjudgmentproject.com/icewsbkgd. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. Condition will be resolved according to data produced by the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, which reports the Air Quality Index (AQI) for that city on an hourly basis (http://www.stateair.net/web/post/1/1.html). PM2.5 refers to fine particle pollution (http://www.epa.gov/pmdesignations/). Condition (a) will occur if that source reports an AQI value of 400 or higher at any time between the launch of this question and its resolution. For a near-real-time graphical display of historical data from this source, see http://kopf.github.io/chineseair/. voided 11/20/2013 NULL 4/30/2014 NA China Domestic Political Crisis NA 2 If the Air Quality Index in Beijing does not exceed 400 again beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1310-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will the government of any country other than Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia or Tajikistan announce its intention to join the Eurasian Customs Union? The Eurasian Customs Union is an emerging treaty regime that is meant to deepen the economic integration of countries in Europe and Asia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Customs_Union_of_Belarus,_Kazakhstan_and_Russia). A "yes" resolution requires an official announcement by any government other than the ones listed to the effect that it intends to join the union. A statement that a government may join the union would not resolve the question; only a statement of an unqualified intention to join will produce a "yes" resolution. Observer status is not equivalent to membership, so statements or reports regarding changes in observer status will not resolve the question either. The relevant country does not actually have to join the Eurasian Customs Union, only announce its intention to do so. An official announcement is one made by a senior government member or spokesperson for the government in question. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Furthermore, the Eurasian Customs Union does not need to accept the country in question or make an announcement that it intends to accept said country for the question to resolve as a "yes". The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no other governments have announced their intention to join the Eurasian Customs Union). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 12/4/2013 2/16/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 2/16/2014 a Eurasian Customs Union 74 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1315-1 1 Before 1 April 2014, will one or more countries impose a new requirement on travelers to show proof of a polio vaccination before entering the country? There is concern that a polio epidemic is developing in Syria and could affect Europe and other parts of the world, (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=polio-re-emerges-in-syria-and-israel-threatening-europe); similar concerns exist with respect to Nigeria and other countries. A "yes" resolution to this question would require an official announcement from at least one country to the effect that it had adopted new entry requirements that require travelers to show proof of a polio vaccination. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. The requirements do not need to apply to all travelers. New requirements which specify that travelers from one or more countries (e.g., Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Israel or Syria) must show proof of vaccination would lead to a "yes" resolution even if those requirements did not hold for travelers from other countries. "New" means that only requirements first implemented after the launch of this question will count toward the resolution. The continuation of requirements that are currently in place will not suffice for a "yes" resolution. The manner in which the proof of polio vaccination is required is irrelevant for the resolution of this question. Outcome of the main question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. There must be an official notice by the World Health Organization of a polio epidemic outbreak at the link mentioned below. Condition will be resolved based on reporting from WHO page for Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network, http://www.who.int/csr/outbreaknetwork/en/ or the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network's Page on Polio in Syria (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013_10_29/en/index.html). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome for the question and condition (i.e., no new requirements of polio vaccine proof, no WHO polio epidemic declaration) will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from WHO, BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 11/13/2013 12/11/2013 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 NA Polio Vaccination Proof Required NA 2 If the World Health Organization declares a polio epidemic on the WHO Global Alert and Response system in at least one country beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1315-2 2 Before 1 April 2014, will one or more countries impose a new requirement on travelers to show proof of a polio vaccination before entering the country? There is concern that a polio epidemic is developing in Syria and could affect Europe and other parts of the world, (http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=polio-re-emerges-in-syria-and-israel-threatening-europe); similar concerns exist with respect to Nigeria and other countries. A "yes" resolution to this question would require an official announcement from at least one country to the effect that it had adopted new entry requirements that require travelers to show proof of a polio vaccination. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. The requirements do not need to apply to all travelers. New requirements which specify that travelers from one or more countries (e.g., Afghanistan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Israel or Syria) must show proof of vaccination would lead to a "yes" resolution even if those requirements did not hold for travelers from other countries. "New" means that only requirements first implemented after the launch of this question will count toward the resolution. The continuation of requirements that are currently in place will not suffice for a "yes" resolution. The manner in which the proof of polio vaccination is required is irrelevant for the resolution of this question. Outcome of the main question will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. There must be an official notice by the World Health Organization of a polio epidemic outbreak at the link mentioned below. Condition will be resolved based on reporting from WHO page for Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network, http://www.who.int/csr/outbreaknetwork/en/ or the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network's Page on Polio in Syria (http://www.who.int/csr/don/2013_10_29/en/index.html). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome for the question and condition (i.e., no new requirements of polio vaccine proof, no WHO polio epidemic declaration) will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from WHO, BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/13/2013 12/11/2013 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 12/11/2013 a Polio Vaccination Proof Required 28 2 If the World Health Organization does not declare a polio epidemic on the WHO Global Alert and Response system in at least one country beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1318-1 1 Before 1 January 2014, will the Prime Minister of Japan visit the Yasukuni Shrine? The Yasukuni Shrine is a controversial memorial to those who died in Japan's wars, and there are reports that, related to tension with China, Prime Minister Abe may visit it before the end of the year (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/20/us-abe-shrine-idUSBRE99J01320131020). For a "yes" resolution to occur, a major news source must report that the Prime Minister of Japan has visited the Yasukuni shrine. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. For condition (1) to occur (If there is a significant lethal confrontation in the East China Sea region between China and Japan), a major news source must confirm that there has been a significant lethal confrontation in the East China Sea between Japan and China. A "significant lethal" confrontation is defined as one that causes at least five combined deaths of military or government personnel. The East China Sea region includes the waters of the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea, as well as the lands of the Senkaku and Tong Islands, or the airspace above any of these lands or waters. The outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the Prime Minister has not visited the shrine for the outcome, no significant lethal confrontation for the condition). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 11/13/2013 12/25/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/25/2013 NA Japan PM Visits Yasukuni Shrine NA 2 If there is a significant lethal confrontation in the East China Sea region between China and Japan beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1318-2 2 Before 1 January 2014, will the Prime Minister of Japan visit the Yasukuni Shrine? The Yasukuni Shrine is a controversial memorial to those who died in Japan's wars, and there are reports that, related to tension with China, Prime Minister Abe may visit it before the end of the year (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/20/us-abe-shrine-idUSBRE99J01320131020). For a "yes" resolution to occur, a major news source must report that the Prime Minister of Japan has visited the Yasukuni shrine. In order for a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must resolve before the outcome. For condition (1) to occur (If there is a significant lethal confrontation in the East China Sea region between China and Japan), a major news source must confirm that there has been a significant lethal confrontation in the East China Sea between Japan and China. A "significant lethal" confrontation is defined as one that causes at least five combined deaths of military or government personnel. The East China Sea region includes the waters of the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea, as well as the lands of the Senkaku and Tong Islands, or the airspace above any of these lands or waters. The outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or CNN (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.cnn.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., the Prime Minister has not visited the shrine for the outcome, no significant lethal confrontation for the condition). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/13/2013 12/25/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/25/2013 12/25/2013 a Japan PM Visits Yasukuni Shrine 42 2 If there is no significant lethal confrontation in the East China Sea region between China and Japan beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1319-0 0 Will Russia file a formal World Trade Organization (WTO) anti-dumping dispute against the European Union (EU) before 31 March 2014? Russia, which became a member of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012, has threatened to use the WTO's dispute settlement mechanism to bring a case against the EU for imposing anti-dumping duties on Russian steel and fertilizers (http://en.ria.ru/world/20131021/184276039.html). Dumping occurs when the price of a product when sold in an importing country is less than the price of that product in the market of the exporting country, pursuant to The Agreement on Implementation of Article VI of GATT 1994, commonly known as the Anti-Dumping Agreement. The first step of a formal action is an official request for WTO consultations; this request for consultations formally initiates a dispute in the WTO. Such a formal request for WTO consultations will suffice for a "yes" resolution of this question. Furthermore, the outcome of the consultations is irrelevant for the resolution of this question, as long as the WTO has a formal request on record at the link mentioned below. A list of all anti-dumping disputes can be found at http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/dispu_agreements_index_e.htm?id=A6. The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from the WTO disputes page for Russian Federation, (http://goo.gl/gOnPOh). The following sources will be used as backup sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Russia has not brought a formal dispute to the WTO). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or CNN. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 11/20/2013 1/5/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/30/2014 1/5/2014 a Russia WTO Anti-Dumping Dispute 46 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1320-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will China arrest Wang Zheng on charges of incitement to subvert state power and/or subversion of state power and/or incite separatism? Wang Zheng is a founder of the Zhi Xian political party, launched in early November 2013 (http://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/party-11112013173140.html and http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/09/us-china-politics-bo-idUSBRE9A804L20131109). Wang does not need to be tried or convicted for a "yes" resolution to occur; she only needs to be arrested on charges of "incitement to subvert state power" and/or "subversion of state power" and/or "incite separatism". If Wang Zheng is arrested on charges not specified in this question, the outcome will not be resolved as "yes". Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Wang has not been arrested on relevant charges). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., Radio Free Asia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 12/4/2013 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b China Arrests Wang Zheng 147 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1321-0 0 Will the general elections in Guinea-Bissau commence on 16 March 2014 as planned? Guinea-Bissau has delayed its planned national elections that were to take place in November and scheduled the new date for March 16, 2014, (see http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/15/us-bissau-election-idUSBRE9AE0Q420131115). Commencement of the elections means that a vote will begin domestically within Guinea-Bissau on the indicated date. The elections must be commenced by the end of the day on March 16, 2014 but need not be concluded by that date. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "On" should be interpreted to mean at the end (18:59:59 ET, i.e. 23:59:59 in Bissau, the capital city of Guinea-Bissau) of 16 March 2014. closed 12/4/2013 3/16/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/16/2014 3/16/2014 b Guinea-Bissau Elections 102 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1322-0 0 Between 4 December 2013 and 1 March 2014, will the European Commission *officially state that Italy is eligible for the investment clause? The European Commission is exercising new power in reviewing member states' draft budgets before those budgets are approved by national legislators. To be in line with EU rules, Italy's structural deficit should be cut by 0.66 percent in 2014, but the European Commission on November 15 said that the current budget only cuts the structural deficit by 0.12 percent, once extra investment spending is accounted for (http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/italy-spain-criticised-among-countries-at-risk-of-breaking-eu-budget-rules-29758927.html). Italy is considering revising its budget accordingly. A European Commission press release indicates that Italy may not be able to take advantage of the investment clause if they do not make the minimal structural adjustments to its 2014 budget (http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-13-995_en.htm; also see http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10452968/EU-uses-new-budget-powers-to-demand-more-austerity-in-Italy-and-Spain.html). "Officially state" means that the European Commission must issue a press release on its website, at the link mentioned below, stating that Italy is eligible for the investment clause. Outcome of the question will be resolved based on press releases on the European Commission's website, (http://europa.eu/rapid/search-result.htm?query=18&locale=en). Other news sources mentioned below will serve as backup sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Italy is not eligible for the investment clause, as per: http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubriche/english/2013/11/21/Rehn-says-Italy-may-get-use-investment-clause_9656634.html). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from Europa.eu, BBC News, Reuters, or economist.com. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at or after the start (00:00:00 ET) of the earlier date and at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the later date. closed 12/4/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/1/2014 2/28/2014 b European Commission - Italy 86 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1323-1 1 Will South Korea and Japan sign a *new military intelligence pact before 1 March 2014? A *new military intelligence pact is one that explicitly mentions the sharing of classified information or intelligence between South Korea and Japan that is signed after the date of the question opening. "New" means that only pacts signed after the question opened will count toward the resolution of this question. Previously existing or renewed pacts will not suffice for a "yes" resolution. There must be an official announcement that the pact has been signed for a "yes" resolution of this question. An announcement which specifies that Japan and South Korea have agreed to a military intelligence pact will not suffice. Any of the news sources mentioned below must report that an official signing has taken place and that the official representatives of both the Japanese and South Korean governments were present at the signing. The location of the signing is irrelevant for this question. In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The first condition will be realized if North Korea launches a multistage rocket after the question has opened. A "multistage rocket" refers to any self-propelled rocket or missile, regardless of payload (e.g., satellite, explosive, none, other) that has two or more stages. "A launch" is defined as a "liftoff," regardless of whether the rocket leaves the atmosphere. Only "new" rocket/missile launches will count as realization of the condition; any launches that occurred prior to the question's opening will not count. The purpose of the launch, whether for testing or an actual military attack, is irrelevant. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no pact has been signed, no rocket/missile launch with liftoff has occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 12/4/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 NA South Korea / Japan Pact NA 2 If North Korea conducts a new multistage rocket launch beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1323-2 2 Will South Korea and Japan sign a *new military intelligence pact before 1 March 2014? A *new military intelligence pact is one that explicitly mentions the sharing of classified information or intelligence between South Korea and Japan that is signed after the date of the question opening. "New" means that only pacts signed after the question opened will count toward the resolution of this question. Previously existing or renewed pacts will not suffice for a "yes" resolution. There must be an official announcement that the pact has been signed for a "yes" resolution of this question. An announcement which specifies that Japan and South Korea have agreed to a military intelligence pact will not suffice. Any of the news sources mentioned below must report that an official signing has taken place and that the official representatives of both the Japanese and South Korean governments were present at the signing. The location of the signing is irrelevant for this question. In order for a "yes" realization to occur, the "condition" must be realized before the "outcome." The first condition will be realized if North Korea launches a multistage rocket after the question has opened. A "multistage rocket" refers to any self-propelled rocket or missile, regardless of payload (e.g., satellite, explosive, none, other) that has two or more stages. "A launch" is defined as a "liftoff," regardless of whether the rocket leaves the atmosphere. Only "new" rocket/missile launches will count as realization of the condition; any launches that occurred prior to the question's opening will not count. The purpose of the launch, whether for testing or an actual military attack, is irrelevant. Outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no pact has been signed, no rocket/missile launch with liftoff has occurred). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 12/4/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 2/28/2014 b South Korea / Japan Pact 86 2 If North Korea does not conduct a new multistage rocket launch beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1324-0 0 Will North Kosovo experience any *election-related violence before 31 December 2013? Municipal elections for the Serbian-dominated region of North Kosovo were rescheduled after being marred by violence and intimidation from masked gangs. Although rescheduled balloting went smoothly, North Kosovo remains under high alert. North Kosovo refers to the region described here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Kosovo. For the purposes of this question, "election-related" refers to a description in primary news sources for resolution as related to an election. If at least one of the news sources below describes the violence as election related, it will suffice for a "yes" resolution. "Violence" refers to incidents in which both property is destroyed and at least 3 people are injured. Furthermore, "property damage" means that at least one of the news sources mentioned below must mention property damage and/or looting in their reporting. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no election-related violence). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 12/4/2013 12/30/2013 9:00:00 AM 12/30/2013 12/30/2013 b Kosovo Election Violence 26 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1325-0 0 Before 1 March 2014, will the U.S. and E.U. *officially announce that they have reached at least partial agreement on the terms of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)? The TTIP is a proposed free-trade agreement between the U.S. and E.U. (see http://www.ustr.gov/about-us/press-office/fact-sheets/2013/february/US-EU-TTIP). An agreement need only be announced, not fully ratified by both parties, for this question to resolve affirmatively. A *partial agreement that allows negotiations on some issues, (e.g., agricultural subsidies or genetically modified crops) to continue would count toward a "yes" resolution as long as there is agreement on at least some issues. An official announcement must be made by either one or both of the parties in question. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., no announcement of reaching any agreement). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 12/4/2013 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 2/28/2014 b TTIP Agreement 86 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1327-0 0 Before 1 March 2014, will the European Commission (EC) announce that Turkey is permitted to open a *new chapter of accession negotiations? Turkey has been an applicant for European Union membership since the 1960s, but it formally opened accession negotiations only in 2005. EC negotiations involve the opening and closing of 35 "chapters" on various areas of policy harmonization, (http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining/index_en.htm). Turkey currently has 13 open chapters and one that was opened and closed, (see http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/detailed-country-information/turkey/). Negotiations halted three years ago over political resistance on the part of member states, largely regarding the Cyprus issue, (http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RS22517.pdf), but in November 2013 the EC allowed the opening of negotiation on chapter 22, on regional policy, (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/05/us-eu-turkey-idUSBRE9A40TU20131105). A "yes" resolution requires an official announcement from the European Commission that a new chapter is open for negotiation. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Only *new chapters, opened during the question's duration, will count toward the resolution of this question. Reopening of a previously closed chapter will not suffice. Previous chapters that were opened and then closed before the question was launched will not suffice for a "yes" resolution. Unfreezing negotiations of previously opened and then frozen chapters would not count either. The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. Turkey has not been invited to open a new chapter). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/8/2014 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 2/28/2014 b Turkey EC Negotiations 51 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1328-0 0 Before 31 March 2014, will the Slovenian government *officially announce that it will seek a loan from either the European Union bailout facilities or the IMF? Slovenia, a member of the Eurozone since 2007 and previously one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe, is currently in a banking crisis due to excessive lending to businesses by its banks, most of which are state-owned. Slovenia's ratio of non-performing to total loans is currently at around 17.4%, and public debt is currently at 63% of GDP (see http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21590956-fight-avoid-sixth-euro-zone-bail-out-reaches-climax-stressed-out). Many are speculating as to the likelihood of a bailout, even though German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble in August 2013 said there would be no further bailouts (http://www.cnn.com/2013/08/27/business/germany-finance-minister-schaeuble/). The procedure for asking for a Eurozone bailout has involved governments first announcing that they will seek help from the European Union (usually a request for financing from either the European Financial Stability Facility or European Stability Mechanism) or the International Monetary Fund. An *official announcement requesting financing from any of these institutions would suffice for a "yes" resolution. The loan need not be approved for a "yes" resolution. The announcement must be made by an official representative of the Slovenian government. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. no announcement by Slovenia of seeking bailout funding). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/15/2014 3/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/30/2014 3/30/2014 b Slovenian Loan 74 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1329-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi announce that he plans to stand as a candidate in Egypt's next presidential election? A "yes" resolution requires an official public announcement by General Sisi or someone authorized to speak on his behalf stating that Sisi plans to run for president in Egypt's next presidential election. If the announcement is made by someone other than General Sisi, a "yes" resolution will only occur if that announcement is not publicly refuted by General Sisi within 48 hours. The date of the election does not affect the resolution of the question, nor would a change of plans or mind following an initial decision to run. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (Sisi does not plan to run) will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/22/2014 3/26/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 3/26/2014 a Egypt: al-Sisi Candidate for President 63 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1330-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will the U.S. and the European Union reach an agreement on a plan to protect individuals' data privacy? In November 2013, U.S. and E.U. officials said they had agreed to try to complete an agreement to protect individuals' private data while sharing information for law enforcement by mid-2014 (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-19/u-s-eu-officials-seek-data-protection-plan-by-2014s.html). A "yes" resolution requires an official public announcement by U.S. or E.U. officials that the two sides have reached agreement on a plan that would protect individuals' private data. An official announcement must be made by either one or both of the parties in question. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome (i.e. no agreement) typically will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/15/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b US/EU Data Privacy Agreement 105 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1332-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will official representatives of the Syrian government and the Syrian opposition formally agree on a *political plan for Syria? "Official representatives" refers to individuals who are empowered by the relevant organization to speak on the organization's behalf. For the purposes of this question, the Syrian National Coalition (SNC), also known as the National Coalition for Syrian Opposition and Revolutionary Forces, shall be considered the body representing the Syrian opposition. Membership changes to the SNC, or an official name change, will not affect the resolution of the question. However, a *political plan agreed to by other rebel groups will not be sufficient for a "yes" resolution. The SNC, or its successor organization, must officially agree to a *political plan. If the SNC disintegrates, the question will resolve as a "no." A statement from the Syrian Opposition and Revolutionary Forces on behalf of rebel forces would substitute for a statement from the SNC, as long as it is not refuted or contradicted within 48 hours by an official statement from the SNC. Formal agreement would be indicated, for example, by the signing of a relevant document, by public announcements from official representatives of both parties, or by a public announcement from a third party (e.g., a U.N. official) that is not refuted by official representatives of either side within 48 hours. A *political plan is any agreement that includes any provisions stipulating the composition or method of selection for the executive branch of the Syrian government now or in the future. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (no formal agreement on a political plan) will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/22/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Syrian Political Plan 98 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1333-0 0 Will the six-party talks with North Korea resume before 1 May 2014? The six parties are North Korea, South Korea, the United States, Japan, China, and Russia. For this question to resolve as "yes," representatives of all six governments must meet simultaneously as part of an event officially described as a resumption of the six-party talks. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. six-party talks with North Korea have not resumed). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/8/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Six-Party Talks 112 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1335-0 0 Before 1 March 2014, will the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announce that it has visited the Gchine uranium mine site in Iran? In November 2013, Iran agreed to grant the IAEA access within three months to two sites, the Arak heavy-water plant and the Gchine uranium mine. Tero Varjoranta of the IAEA said his inspectors would go to the Gchine site before February 11 (see http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/us-iran-nuclear-iaea-idUSBRE9BA0DD20131211). A "yes" resolution requires an official announcement from the IAEA that it has visited the Gchine mine site. Any visit to the site will suffice; restrictions on access to certain parts of the site will not negate a "yes" resolution. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the IAEA who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., the IAEA has not visited the Gchine mine site). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., Washington Post, Al Jazeera English), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/8/2014 2/8/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 2/8/2014 a IAEA Iran Inspections 31 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1337-0 0 Before 31 March 2014, will either Peru or India announce their intention to formally launch negotiations on a preferential trade agreement (PTA) with each other? Peru has initiated several PTAs with developed and developing countries alike, and is currently considering deals with Russia, India, and El Salvador (http://www.peruthisweek.com/news-russia-india-and-salvador-eye-free-trade-agreements-with-peru-101647). It has also recently opened a trade office in New Delhi (http://www.freshplaza.com/article/115364/Peru-opens-trade-office-in-New-Delhi). For a "yes" resolution to occur, a government official or an official spokesperson from either Peru or India must announce a formal launch date for negotiations. The date of the launch is irrelevant, as long as the announcement is made before 31 March 2014. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of either government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, contingent threats or offers, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations. The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., the countries have not announced intent to enter into negotiations on a PTA). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/22/2014 3/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/30/2014 3/30/2014 b Peru-India Trade Agreement 67 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1338-1 1 Will South Korea announce its intention to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations before 31 January 2014? The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed economic integration scheme among Australia, Brunei, Chile, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. It was initiated in 2011 as a trade agreement among countries with a border on the Pacific Ocean (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21782080). Negotiations for the shape of the agreement were supposed to have concluded by the end of 2013 but were recently pushed back to January 2014 (http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/kyodo-news-international/131213/tpp-ministers-eye-meeting-london-late-january-sources). The South Korean government recently expressed interest in joining the negotiations, (http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2013/12/13/49/0502000000AEN20131213007300320F.html). The outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e. South Korea has not announced its intention to join the TPP, negotiations on the TPP have not taken place). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Note that the condition is identical to IFP 1212, and it will resolve identically as well. voided 1/8/2014 NULL 1/30/2014 NA South Korea Join TPP NA 2 If negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) resume beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1338-2 2 Will South Korea announce its intention to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations before 31 January 2014? The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed economic integration scheme among Australia, Brunei, Chile, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam. It was initiated in 2011 as a trade agreement among countries with a border on the Pacific Ocean (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21782080). Negotiations for the shape of the agreement were supposed to have concluded by the end of 2013 but were recently pushed back to January 2014 (http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/kyodo-news-international/131213/tpp-ministers-eye-meeting-london-late-january-sources). The South Korean government recently expressed interest in joining the negotiations, (http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/business/2013/12/13/49/0502000000AEN20131213007300320F.html). The outcome and condition will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e. South Korea has not announced its intention to join the TPP, negotiations on the TPP have not taken place). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. Note that the condition is identical to IFP 1212, and it will resolve identically as well. voided 1/8/2014 NULL 1/30/2014 NA South Korea Join TPP NA 2 If negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) do not resume beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1340-0 0 Will Israel release all of the 104 Palestinian prisoners from its jails before 1 May 2014? The 104 Palestinian prisoners mostly refers to individuals who were incarcerated in Israel before the 1993 Oslo Accords. A complete list of all 104 prisoners is available at: http://www.jpost.com/Diplomacy-and-Politics/The-prisoners-to-be-released-321340. Israel has already released some of the prisoners. A "yes" resolution to this question would require official announcements from either the government of Israel or the Palestinian Authorities to the effect that all of the 104 Palestinian prisoners have been released from Israeli jails. An official statement from the Palestinian Prisoners Club will suffice for a "yes" resolution, as long as it is not refuted by the Palestinian Authorities within 48 hours. A mere announcement of the intention to release will not suffice. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government of Israel who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or "leaked" private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome typically will be assumed (i.e. at least one of the prisoners has not been released). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/8/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Israel Release Palestinian Prisoners 112 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1341-0 0 Will Thailand *commence parliamentary elections on or before 2 February 2014? Thailand is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on 2 February 2014. Protesters supported by the opposition Democrat Party are demanding that those elections be scrapped or delayed, but Thailand's Election Commission announced in early January that the elections would proceed as planned (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/04/world/asia/thailand.html). *Commencement of the elections means that a vote will begin domestically within Thailand on or before 2 February 2014. The elections need not be concluded by that date. An intervention by the king or military during or after the elections or the failure of the elected parliament to convene for any other reason would not negate a prior "Yes" resolution. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (elections did not commence on or before 2 February 2014) will be assumed. Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed, provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "On or before 2 February 2014" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of 2 February 2014. closed 1/15/2014 1/25/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/2/2014 1/25/2014 a Thailand Parliamentary Elections 10 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1342-0 0 Will inflation in Japan reach 2 percent at any point before 1 April 2014? The Bank of Japan has announced a 2014 goal of 2% inflation, and in November 2013 the year-over-year Consumer Price Index (a measure of inflation) had reached a 1.5 percent change from the previous year, its fastest growth since 2008 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/12/20/us-japan-economy-prices-idUSBRE9BJ0EY20131220; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-26/japan-consumer-price-gains-pass-halfway-point-to-inflation-goal.html). The outcome will be resolved based on reporting of Japan's year-over-year Consumer Price Index inflation rate as reported on the Trading Economics Website (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflation-cpi). If nothing is reported in this source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., inflation in Japan has not reached 2%) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may consult other sources, refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/15/2014 4/24/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/24/2014 b Japan Inflation Rate 99 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1344-0 0 Will the U.N. Security Council approve a U.N. peacekeeping operation for the Central African Republic before 1 April 2014? A "yes" outcome requires that one or more major news outlets reports that the U.N. has passed a resolution authorizing a peacekeeping operation in the Central African Republic (CAR). Reports of a UNSC resolution endorsing or providing material support for a non-U.N. peacekeeping operation (e.g., a French or African Union mission) will not resolve the question. The timetable for deployment of the mission does not affect resolution. The outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e. UNSC has not approved a peacekeeping operation before 1 April 2014). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/22/2014 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/31/2014 b UN Peacekeepers in CAR 68 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1345-1 1 Will negotiations on the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) *officially conclude before 1 May 2014? The TransPacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed economic integration scheme among Australia, Brunei, Chile, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam. It was initiated in 2011 as a trade agreement among countries with a border on the Pacific Ocean (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21782080). Negotiations over the shape of the agreement were supposed to have concluded by the end of 2013 but have repeatedly been pushed back (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-10/an-tpp-talks/5148338). An official announcement must be made by an entity authorized to make that announcement, stating that the negotiations on the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) have concluded. An announcement by an official representative of at least one of the governments participating in the negotiations would suffice, as long as that announcement is not publicly refuted by any other party to the negotiation within 48 hours. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. *Trade promotion authority (also called fast track negotiation authority) would allow the Obama administration to negotiate trade pacts directly with other countries (http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/195858-white-house-works-to-convince-dems-to-give-obama-fast-track-on-trade#ixzz2rjHWRgiI). The legislation must be approved by Congress and signed by President Obama to count as a "yes". If a law containing trade promotion authority passes but Obama vetoes it, that would not count as a "yes". The passing of the legislation (Congressional approval and signing by President Obama) must be reported in the news media for Condition 1 to be realized. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., TPP website at http://tppinfo.org/, Thomas Legislative Information System). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., negotiations on the TPP have not concluded, Congress has not passed legislation granting President Obama trade promotion authority). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/19/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA TPP Negotiations NA 2 If Congress passes legislation granting President Obama trade promotion authority beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1345-2 2 Will negotiations on the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) *officially conclude before 1 May 2014? The TransPacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed economic integration scheme among Australia, Brunei, Chile, Canada, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the United States, and Vietnam. It was initiated in 2011 as a trade agreement among countries with a border on the Pacific Ocean (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21782080). Negotiations over the shape of the agreement were supposed to have concluded by the end of 2013 but have repeatedly been pushed back (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-12-10/an-tpp-talks/5148338). An official announcement must be made by an entity authorized to make that announcement, stating that the negotiations on the TransPacific Partnership (TPP) have concluded. An announcement by an official representative of at least one of the governments participating in the negotiations would suffice, as long as that announcement is not publicly refuted by any other party to the negotiation within 48 hours. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. *Trade promotion authority (also called fast track negotiation authority) would allow the Obama administration to negotiate trade pacts directly with other countries (http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/195858-white-house-works-to-convince-dems-to-give-obama-fast-track-on-trade#ixzz2rjHWRgiI). The legislation must be approved by Congress and signed by President Obama to count as a "yes". If a law containing trade promotion authority passes but Obama vetoes it, that would not count as a "yes". The passing of the legislation (Congressional approval and signing by President Obama) must be reported in the news media for Condition 1 to be realized. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., TPP website at http://tppinfo.org/, Thomas Legislative Information System). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., negotiations on the TPP have not concluded, Congress has not passed legislation granting President Obama trade promotion authority). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/19/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b TPP Negotiations 70 2 If Congress does not pass legislation granting President Obama trade promotion authority beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1347-1 1 Will Viktor Yanukovich vacate the office of President of Ukraine before 10 May 2014? Viktor Yanukovich will be considered to not have vacated the office of President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile
d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs
e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately. For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient. For conditions "c" through "e," administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, the question will retroactively be closed when the condition was first reported in the media. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. An official announcement must be made by a representative or spokesperson of the Ukrainian government, stating that the country is declaring a state of emergency. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., Yanukovich has not vacated the office of President, Ukraine has not declared state of emergency). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/5/2014 2/21/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 NA Yanukovich as Ukraine President NA 2 If Ukraine officially declares a state of emergency beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1347-2 2 Will Viktor Yanukovich vacate the office of President of Ukraine before 10 May 2014? Viktor Yanukovich will be considered to not have vacated the office of President as of this date and time, unless one of the following conditions occurs prior to the deadline (note that each condition has qualifications):
a. He has died
b. He vacates or is forcibly removed from the capital / head of government office (or residence) following resignation of office or electoral defeat
c. He is reported to have vacated the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile
d. He has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs
e. He is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days
For condition "a," the question can be closed and resolved immediately. For condition "b," the question will be closed when the leader vacates office / power is transferred. Neither tendering of resignation nor electoral defeat is sufficient. For conditions "c" through "e," administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the condition's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other conditions "c" through "e" still holds at the end of this period, the question will retroactively be closed when the condition was first reported in the media. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. An official announcement must be made by a representative or spokesperson of the Ukrainian government, stating that the country is declaring a state of emergency. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the Ukrainian government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., Yanukovich has not vacated the office of President, Ukraine has not declared state of emergency). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/5/2014 2/21/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 2/21/2014 a Yanukovich as Ukraine President 16 2 If Ukraine does not officially declare a state of emergency beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1348-0 0 Will Ukraine *officially declare a state of emergency before 10 May 2014? An official announcement must be made by a representative of the Ukrainian government stating that the country is declaring a state of emergency. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome resolution will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., no state of emergency) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
closed 2/5/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Ukraine State of Emergency 93 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1349-0 0 Will there be a *lethal confrontation between national military forces from China and Japan before 1 May 2014? *A "lethal confrontation" is a direct clash between Japanese and Chinese national military forces that produces at least 1 death total from either side. "Between national military forces from China and Japan" means that the clash in question must involve official military members of both states' armed forces, to include coast guards. "National military forces" refers to some recognized subset of a nation's (or multinational coalition's) official military. This definition of "national military" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, rebels, independent militias, or terrorist actors. Outcome resolution will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, United Nations Security Council Website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (no significant lethal confrontation) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/22/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Japan/China Confrontation 98 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1350-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will China confiscate the catch or equipment of any foreign fishing vessels in the South China Sea for failing to obtain prior permission to enter those waters? In January 2014, China announced that foreign fishing vessels traveling in disputed parts of the South China Sea must obtain prior permission from China to enter those waters, and said that it would confiscate the catch and equipment of vessels that fail to comply with this requirement (http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2014/01/us-calls-chinas-new-south-china-sea-defense-zone-potentially-dangerous/76685/?oref=d-channelriver). Destruction of foreign fishing vessels would also lead to a "yes" resolution. Outcome resolution will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, United Nations Security Council Website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (no vessels sanctioned) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/22/2014 3/20/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/25/2014 3/20/2014 a China Fishing Dispute 57 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1351-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will Iran install any new *centrifuges? *The question refers specifically to centrifuges used in Iran's nuclear program that are covered under the interim nuclear agreement between the P5+1 and Iran: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/11/24/us-iran-nuclear-agreement-text-idUSBRE9AN0BQ20131124. Under the terms of its interim nuclear deal with the P5+1, Iran has agreed not to install new centrifuges for six months, starting on 20 January 2014 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal.html). Outcome resolution will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, United Nations Security Council Website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (no Iranian installaton of new centrifuges) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 1/22/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Iran Centrifuges 98 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1352-0 0 Will there be a *significant attack on *Israeli territory before 10 May 2014? From the signing of the Oslo Accords in 1993 to the Camp David Summit in 2000, bombings of Israeli buses and crowded spaces were a regular occurrence (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palestinian_political_violence#Oslo_Accords_to_Camp_David_Summit_.281993.E2.80.932000.29). A *significant attack is defined as any unwelcome firing into Israel's territory by an aircraft, surface-to-surface artillery, gun, rocket/missile, or explosives that causes at least 3 deaths of Israeli citizens or tourists. For a "yes" resolution, an attack must be successfully implemented on Israeli ground. Bombings and suicide attacks carried out on the ground will count toward a "yes" resolution, but surface-to-air attacks (e.g., rockets hitting an Israeli aircraft) will not count. *Israeli territory refers to any land that lies within Israel's official borders, including the occupied territories and Israeli settlements (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Borders_of_Israel), as well as Israeli embassies abroad. Thus, an attack against an Israeli embassy abroad will constitute an attack against Israel and will suffice for a "yes" resolution. Attacks by foreign militaries, militant or rebel forces, or any other non-state actor or organization will count toward the resolution of this question. The nationality of the attacking party or their affiliation does not matter for the outcome of this question, as long as the attack does not fall under the category of "friendly fire". Only attacks that occur after the question has opened will count toward a "yes" resolution. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., there has not been a significant attack on Israeli territory) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 3/12/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Attack on Israel 58 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1353-0 0 Will the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks be extended beyond 29 April 2014? The current round of peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians commenced on 29 July 2013 with an original deadline for a resolution set for 29 April 2014, a nine-month timeline. Whether talks will continue beyond that date is uncertain (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/27/us-israel-palestinians-failure-analysis-idUSBREA0Q14220140127; http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-presses-israels-netanyahu-on-peace-talks-with-palestinians/2014/03/03/8166c59a-a30c-11e3-a5fa-55f0c77bf39c_story.html). For a "yes" resolution to occur, reputable news sources must report that the talks have been extended, and these reports must not be refuted by any side participating in the talks within 48 hours. In addition, the extension must last, such that talks must remain open for at least another full day (24 hour period) after 23:59:59 ET on 29 April 2014. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., the talks have not been extended). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Beyond 29 April 2014" should be interpreted to mean after the end (23:59:59 ET) of 29 April 2014. closed 3/5/2014 4/29/2014 11:59:00 PM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks 56 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1354-0 0 Before 1 April 2014, will the government of Venezuela *officially announce a reduction in government subsidies for gasoline prices? The government of Venezuela heavily subsidizes domestic gasoline prices but is reportedly considering easing those subsidies in 2014 (see http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-12/untouchable-6-cent-a-gallon-gasoline-threatened-andes-credit.html; http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/27/venezuela-petrol-subsidies-cheap-gas). An official announcement must be made by a representative of the Venezuelan government stating that the government will be reducing subsidies for gas prices. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. The reduction in the subsidies does not need to take effect before 1 April 2014 for a positive resolution of the question. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, the International Energy Agency). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., no reduction in government subsidies). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
closed 2/5/2014 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/31/2014 b Venezuela Gas Subsidies 54 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1355-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will Kenneth Bae leave North Korea? Kenneth Bae is a U.S. citizen who is currently imprisoned in North Korea (http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/07/us/who-is-kenneth-bae/). For an affirmative outcome, Kenneth Bae must physically be outside of North Korean territory, as reported in the news media. If Bae were to die in North Korea, the question would resolve as "no." For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. North Korea has called on the U.S. and South Korea to cancel their joint exercises planned for this spring (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/24/us-korea-north-usa-un-idUSBREA0N1HF20140124; http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2014/01/116_150604.html). *Only joint military exercises conducted on the Korean Peninsula or in South Korea's airspace or territorial waters after 5 February 2014 will count toward the resolution of Condition 1. Previous joint military exercises will not suffice. Furthermore, an announcement or reports of any planned future joint military exercises will not suffice. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., Bae remains in North Korea, no joint military exercises). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/5/2014 4/29/2014 11:59:00 PM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Kenneth Bae - North Korea 84 2 If the U.S. and South Korea conduct any joint military exercises on the Korean Peninsula beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1355-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will Kenneth Bae leave North Korea? Kenneth Bae is a U.S. citizen who is currently imprisoned in North Korea (http://www.cnn.com/2014/01/07/us/who-is-kenneth-bae/). For an affirmative outcome, Kenneth Bae must physically be outside of North Korean territory, as reported in the news media. If Bae were to die in North Korea, the question would resolve as "no." For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. North Korea has called on the U.S. and South Korea to cancel their joint exercises planned for this spring (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/24/us-korea-north-usa-un-idUSBREA0N1HF20140124; http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2014/01/116_150604.html). *Only joint military exercises conducted on the Korean Peninsula or in South Korea's airspace or territorial waters after 5 February 2014 will count toward the resolution of Condition 1. Previous joint military exercises will not suffice. Furthermore, an announcement or reports of any planned future joint military exercises will not suffice. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, U.S. Navy Pacific Fleet website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., Bae remains in North Korea, no joint military exercises). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/5/2014 4/29/2014 11:59:00 PM 4/30/2014 NA Kenneth Bae - North Korea NA 2 If the U.S. and South Korea do not conduct any joint military exercises on the Korean Peninsula beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1358-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will China *attempt to seize control of Zhongye Island? Zhongye Island, also known as Thitu or Pag-asa Island, is the second largest of the Spratly Islands. The government of the Philippines designates Pag-asa as a town belonging to the municipality of Kalayaan, and the island currently has a civilian population of nearly 200. A recent article in a Chinese-language publication claimed that China would recover Zhongye by force during 2014 (http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/what-if-china-did-invade-pag-asa-island/). For the purposes of this question, *"attempt to seize control" will be identified by the landing of at least 10 members of Chinese national military forces on the soil of Zhongye Island. "National military forces" refers to some recognized subset of China's official military forces, to include coast guards. This definition of "national military" excludes quasi-military or paramilitary groups, such as insurgents, mercenaries, guerrillas, rebels, independent militias, or terrorist actors. The attempt does not have to succeed for the question to resolve as "yes." Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., China has not attempted to seize control of Zhongye Island). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/12/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b China: Zhongye Island 77 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1366-0 0 Will the Bank of Japan (BoJ) *officially announce an *enhancement of its quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) policy before 10 May 2014? In April 2013, the Bank of Japan announced that it was undertaking an aggressive new program of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing (QQE) in service of its goal of 2 percent inflation. The QQE was set to include a doubling of the monetary base and volume of Japanese government bonds as well as exchange-traded funds, and more than doubling the average remaining maturity of purchases of Japanese government debt (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2013/k130404a.pdf). There are two monetary policy meetings scheduled for April 2014, at which the issue of the enhancement of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing will be raised (http://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm/). *"Enhancement" would be satisfied if the BoJ increases the annual pace of purchases, extends the timeframe during which purchases will occur, expands the set of assets to be purchased beyond Japanese government bonds and exchange-traded funds, or shifts the proportion of purchases away from Japanese government bonds toward other asset purchases, including exchange-traded funds. None of the actions mentioned need to be implemented before 10 May 2014 for a "yes" resolution to occur, but need to be officially announced by a spokesperson for the Bank of Japan. Policy changes reported in the BoJ's monthly or Outlook reports will suffice to resolve the question as well. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., the Bank of Japan website http://www.boj.or.jp). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., BoJ has not officially announced an enhancement of its QQE policy before 10 May 2014) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 3/19/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Bank of Japan: Qualitative Easing 51 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1367-1 1 Will the European Central Bank (ECB) *officially announce a plan to charge a *negative interest rate on funds parked overnight at the ECB before 31 March 2014? In an attempt to increase bank borrowing, the European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the benchmark refinancing rate to a record low 0.25%, while holding the deposit rate it pays on bank deposits at 0% and cutting its marginal lending facility -- or emergency borrowing rate -- to 0.75% (http://news.sky.com/story/1165269/ecb-cuts-interest-rate-to-boost-recovery). A *negative interest rate means that banks would have to pay a fee for money they leave at the ECB, creating an incentive for institutions to loan out more money (http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/ecb-examines-weapons-of-last-resort-to-combat-debt-crisis-a-937382.html). An official announcement by a spokesperson for the ECB must state that the ECB will be charging a negative interest rate for overnight funds. The implementation of the negative interest rate is not required for a "yes" resolution of this question; an official announcement will suffice for the resolution. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. *Tapering refers to the Federal Reserve Bank reducing its bond-buying program. Beginning in September 2012, the Federal Reserve was purchasing $85 billion per month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. In January, the Federal Reserve reduced its purchases to $75 billion per month, and recently announced an additional reduction to $65 billion per month for February (http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/29/news/economy/federal-reserve-taper/; http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/washingtonbureau/2014/01/29/fed-tapers-some-more-and-stock-market.html). For Condition 1 to occur, an official representative of the Federal Reserve must announce that the bank will continue tapering and reduce the bond purchasing program to less than $65 billion per month. The tapering does not need to be implemented for Condition 1 to occur. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., the ECB website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., ECB has not officially announced a plan to charge negative interest rates on overnight funds, Federal Reserve has not announced tapering below $65 billion per month). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/12/2014 3/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/30/2014 3/30/2014 b ECB Interest Rate 46 2 If the Federal Reserve officially announces tapering the pace of bond purchases below $65 billion per month beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1367-2 2 Will the European Central Bank (ECB) *officially announce a plan to charge a *negative interest rate on funds parked overnight at the ECB before 31 March 2014? In an attempt to increase bank borrowing, the European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the benchmark refinancing rate to a record low 0.25%, while holding the deposit rate it pays on bank deposits at 0% and cutting its marginal lending facility -- or emergency borrowing rate -- to 0.75% (http://news.sky.com/story/1165269/ecb-cuts-interest-rate-to-boost-recovery). A *negative interest rate means that banks would have to pay a fee for money they leave at the ECB, creating an incentive for institutions to loan out more money (http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/ecb-examines-weapons-of-last-resort-to-combat-debt-crisis-a-937382.html). An official announcement by a spokesperson for the ECB must state that the ECB will be charging a negative interest rate for overnight funds. The implementation of the negative interest rate is not required for a "yes" resolution of this question; an official announcement will suffice for the resolution. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. *Tapering refers to the Federal Reserve Bank reducing its bond-buying program. Beginning in September 2012, the Federal Reserve was purchasing $85 billion per month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. In January, the Federal Reserve reduced its purchases to $75 billion per month, and recently announced an additional reduction to $65 billion per month for February (http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/29/news/economy/federal-reserve-taper/; http://www.bizjournals.com/bizjournals/washingtonbureau/2014/01/29/fed-tapers-some-more-and-stock-market.html). For Condition 1 to occur, an official representative of the Federal Reserve must announce that the bank will continue tapering and reduce the bond purchasing program to less than $65 billion per month. The tapering does not need to be implemented for Condition 1 to occur. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., the ECB website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., ECB has not officially announced a plan to charge negative interest rates on overnight funds, Federal Reserve has not announced tapering below $65 billion per month). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/12/2014 3/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/30/2014 NA ECB Interest Rate NA 2 If the Federal Reserve does not officially announce tapering the pace of bond purchases below $65 billion per month beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1368-0 0 Will Pakistan and the TTP reach a peace agreement before 10 May 2014? The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), also known as the Pakistani Taliban, is a militant group engaged in an insurgency that has cost nearly 50,000 lives. Previous attempts at dialogue between the Pakistani government and the TTP have broken down, but on 1 March 2014 the TTP announced a month-long ceasefire with the aim of reviving stalled peace talks (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-26398758). For a "yes" resolution, either the government of Pakistan or the TTP must officially announce that a peace agreement has been reached, so long as this announcement is not refuted by the other party within 48 hours. A ceasefire in and of itself would not count for the resolution of this question. "Official" would be evidenced by, e.g., a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the government of Pakistan or the TTP who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity, conveying the concrete intentions of the government and the TTP. In contrast, the following would not constitute an "official" announcement: conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., no peace agreement has been reached between Pakistan and the TTP). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/5/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Pakistan-TTP Peace Agreement 65 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1369-1 1 Before 1 March 2014, will Russia purchase any *additional Ukrainian government bonds? In December 2013, Russia purchased the first $3 billion of a promised $15 billion in Ukrainian government bonds as part of a financial aid package to its neighbor (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25427706). However, Moscow has suggested further purchases are on hold until there is more certainty about the future makeup of Ukraine's government (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/us-ukraine-idUSBREA130S520140204; http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/30/world/europe/ukraine-protests.html). *"Additional" refers to any bonds beyond the first $3 billion already purchased. The purchase of any additional bonds after 12 February 2014 will suffice for a "yes" resolution; Russia does not need to purchase the entirety of the remaining $12 billion. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. Yanukovich has yet to appoint a new Prime Minister, but many suspect that he may appoint Andriy Klyuev, his pro-Russian hardline chief of staff. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., Russia has not purchased any additional Ukrainian government bonds, Yanukovich has not appointed Andriy Klyuev as Prime Minister). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/12/2014 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 NA Russia Buys Ukrainian Bonds NA 2 If President Yanukovich appoints Andriy Klyuev as Prime Minister beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1369-2 2 Before 1 March 2014, will Russia purchase any *additional Ukrainian government bonds? In December 2013, Russia purchased the first $3 billion of a promised $15 billion in Ukrainian government bonds as part of a financial aid package to its neighbor (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25427706). However, Moscow has suggested further purchases are on hold until there is more certainty about the future makeup of Ukraine's government (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/04/us-ukraine-idUSBREA130S520140204; http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/30/world/europe/ukraine-protests.html). *"Additional" refers to any bonds beyond the first $3 billion already purchased. The purchase of any additional bonds after 12 February 2014 will suffice for a "yes" resolution; Russia does not need to purchase the entirety of the remaining $12 billion. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. Yanukovich has yet to appoint a new Prime Minister, but many suspect that he may appoint Andriy Klyuev, his pro-Russian hardline chief of staff. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., Russia has not purchased any additional Ukrainian government bonds, Yanukovich has not appointed Andriy Klyuev as Prime Minister). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/12/2014 2/28/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2014 2/28/2014 b Russia Buys Ukrainian Bonds 16 2 If President Yanukovich does not appoint Andriy Klyuev as Prime Minister beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1370-1 1 Will family reunions between South and North Korea begin on or before 25 February 2014? On 5 February, the governments of North and South Korea agreed to hold reunions for relatives separated by the Korean War at a North Korean resort on 20-25 February 2014 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/06/world/asia/north-and-south-korea-set-dates-for-family-reunions.html?ref=world&_r=0). For a "yes" resolution to occur, news media must report that the reunions have begun. The reunions must be physical, i.e., face to face; family reunions taking place via remote-participation apps such as Skype will not suffice. The location where the reunions take place is irrelevant. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. North Korea has called on the U.S. and South Korea to cancel their joint exercises planned for this spring (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/24/us-korea-north-usa-un-idUSBREA0N1HF20140124; http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2014/01/116_150604.html). *Only joint military exercises conducted on the Korean Peninsula or in South Korea's airspace or territorial waters after 12 February 2014 will count toward the resolution of Condition 1. Previous joint military exercises will not suffice. Furthermore, an announcement or reports of any planned future joint military exercises will not suffice. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., the reunions did not begin on or before 25 February 2014, no joint military exercises were conducted). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "On or before 25 February 2014" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of 25 February 2014. voided 2/12/2014 2/19/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/21/2014 NA Korean Family Reunions NA 2 If the U.S. and South Korea conduct any joint military exercises on the Korean Peninsula beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1370-2 2 Will family reunions between South and North Korea begin on or before 25 February 2014? On 5 February, the governments of North and South Korea agreed to hold reunions for relatives separated by the Korean War at a North Korean resort on 20-25 February 2014 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/06/world/asia/north-and-south-korea-set-dates-for-family-reunions.html?ref=world&_r=0). For a "yes" resolution to occur, news media must report that the reunions have begun. The reunions must be physical, i.e., face to face; family reunions taking place via remote-participation apps such as Skype will not suffice. The location where the reunions take place is irrelevant. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. North Korea has called on the U.S. and South Korea to cancel their joint exercises planned for this spring (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/01/24/us-korea-north-usa-un-idUSBREA0N1HF20140124; http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2014/01/116_150604.html). *Only joint military exercises conducted on the Korean Peninsula or in South Korea's airspace or territorial waters after 12 February 2014 will count toward the resolution of Condition 1. Previous joint military exercises will not suffice. Furthermore, an announcement or reports of any planned future joint military exercises will not suffice. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., the reunions did not begin on or before 25 February 2014, no joint military exercises were conducted). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "On or before 25 February 2014" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of 25 February 2014. closed 2/12/2014 2/19/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/21/2014 2/19/2014 a Korean Family Reunions 7 2 If the U.S. and South Korea do not conduct any joint military exercises on the Korean Peninsula beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1371-1 1 Before 1 May 2014, will North Korea conduct a new *multistage rocket or missile *launch? A *"multistage rocket or missile" refers to any self-propelled rocket or missile, regardless of payload (e.g., satellite, explosive, none, other) that has two or more stages. *"Launch" is defined as a liftoff or an attempt to liftoff a rocket or missile, regardless of which direction it is aimed. The rocket or missile does not need to achieve liftoff successfully, nor does it need to fly any specified distance, for a positive resolution. Only new rocket or missile launches will count toward the resolution of the question; any launches that occurred prior to 12 February 2014 will not count. The purpose of the launch, whether for testing purposes or for an actual military attack, is irrelevant. The question will resolve based on official announcements either by North Korea or by the U.S. Government, as long as that announcement is not refuted by either one within a 48 hour period. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. On 5 February, the governments of North and South Korea agreed to hold reunions for relatives separated by the Korean War at a North Korean resort on 20-25 February 2014 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/06/world/asia/north-and-south-korea-set-dates-for-family-reunions.html?ref=world&_r=0). For Condition 1 to occur, news media must report that the reunions have begun. The reunions must be physical, i.e., face to face; family reunions taking place via remote-participation apps such as Skype will not suffice. The location where the reunions take place is irrelevant. For the conditions, "on or before 25 February 2014" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of 25 February 2014. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, U.S. Department of Defense website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., North Korea has not conducted a new multistage rocket or missile launch, the reunions did not begin on or before 25 February 2014). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/12/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b North Korean Missile Launch 77 2 If the family reunions between South and North Korea begin on or before 25 February 2014 : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1371-2 2 Before 1 May 2014, will North Korea conduct a new *multistage rocket or missile *launch? A *"multistage rocket or missile" refers to any self-propelled rocket or missile, regardless of payload (e.g., satellite, explosive, none, other) that has two or more stages. *"Launch" is defined as a liftoff or an attempt to liftoff a rocket or missile, regardless of which direction it is aimed. The rocket or missile does not need to achieve liftoff successfully, nor does it need to fly any specified distance, for a positive resolution. Only new rocket or missile launches will count toward the resolution of the question; any launches that occurred prior to 12 February 2014 will not count. The purpose of the launch, whether for testing purposes or for an actual military attack, is irrelevant. The question will resolve based on official announcements either by North Korea or by the U.S. Government, as long as that announcement is not refuted by either one within a 48 hour period. "Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. For a "yes" resolution to occur, the condition must occur before the outcome. On 5 February, the governments of North and South Korea agreed to hold reunions for relatives separated by the Korean War at a North Korean resort on 20-25 February 2014 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/06/world/asia/north-and-south-korea-set-dates-for-family-reunions.html?ref=world&_r=0). For Condition 1 to occur, news media must report that the reunions have begun. The reunions must be physical, i.e., face to face; family reunions taking place via remote-participation apps such as Skype will not suffice. The location where the reunions take place is irrelevant. For the conditions, "on or before 25 February 2014" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of 25 February 2014. Outcome and condition will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, U.S. Department of Defense website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., North Korea has not conducted a new multistage rocket or missile launch, the reunions did not begin on or before 25 February 2014). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. voided 2/12/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 NA North Korean Missile Launch NA 2 If the family reunions between South and North Korea do not begin on or before 25 February 2014 : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1372-0 0 Will Syria's *mustard agent and key binary chemical weapon components be destroyed on or before the 31 March 2014 deadline established by the Executive Council of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)? In November 2013, the Executive Council of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) set a detailed timeline for the destruction of Syria's *"mustard agent and the key binary chemical weapons components DF, A, B, and BB, including BB salt" by 31 March 2014 (as outlined on p.3, section 3(a) in http://www.opcw.org/index.php?eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=16875). In January and February 2014, foreign governments and the OPCW expressed concern that Syria was not keeping pace with the established deadlines (http://www.opcw.org/news/article/director-general-need-to-pick-up-pace-in-removing-chemicals-from-syria-1/; http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/05/syria-misses-chemical-weapons-deadline). For a "yes" resolution to occur, open source media must report that Syria has met the 31 March 2014 deadline for destroying these specific components, so long as the reports are not refuted by a country party to the Geneva II talks within a 48 hour period (see https://www.aa.com.tr/en/news/265260--geneva-ii-participant-list-finalized-un-special-envoy-brahimi-says). An amendment or an official extension of the 31 March 2014 deadline announced by the OPCW or any of the parties to the agreement is irrelevant for the resolution of this question. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, OPCW website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Syria's mustard agent and key chemical components have not been destroyed) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "On or before 31 March 2014" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of 31 March 2014. closed 2/19/2014 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/31/2014 b Syria Chemical Weapons 40 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1373-0 0 Will the U.N. Human Rights Council (UNHRC) adopt a resolution *directly concerning Sri Lanka during its 25th regular session in March 2014? The UNHRC is scheduled to hold its 25th regular session from 3 to 28 March 2014 (http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/RegularSessions/Session25/Pages/25RegularSession.aspx). In early 2014, the United States stated its intention to sponsor a resolution at that session "calling on Sri Lanka to do more to promote reconciliation, democratic governance, justice and accountability" (http://www.state.gov/p/sca/rls/rmks/2014/221143.htm; http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/01/220701.htm). Ahead of the session, Sri Lanka is seeking support against the resolution from India, China, and others (e.g., http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/lankan-fm-to-visit-china-ahead-of-rights-resolution-in-unhrc_909796.html). A resolution *"directly concerning" Sri Lanka means that the resolution's subject must be Sri Lanka; for instance, a UNHRC resolution about Southeast Asia more broadly or a passing mention of Sri Lanka in a UNHRC resolution will be considered insufficient for a "yes" resolution. The UN Human Rights Council publishes Resolutions, Decisions, and President's statements for its regular sessions on their website, and those from the March session will be published on http://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/RegularSessions/Session25/Pages/ResDecStat.aspx. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., UNHRC website). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., no adoption of the resolution) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Question will resolve when the relevant reports and documents are made available to the public or the 25th regular session of the UNHRC is adjourned. closed 2/19/2014 3/26/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/26/2014 a UNHRC - Sri Lanka 35 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1376-0 0 Will Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and/or South Africa impose *currency or capital controls before 1 May 2014? There has been a rapid fall in some emerging economies' market currencies, especially Argentina, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-28/argentina-s-lying-prices-show-capital-control-limits-currencies.html). *"Currency or capital controls" are measures governments take to regulate monetary flows into and out of the country, including transaction taxes, minimum stay requirements, limits on the amount of foreign currency the government or private citizens can sell, or prohibitions on the purchase of foreign currency. Only controls imposed after 19 February 2014 will suffice for a "yes" resolution. One or more of the countries mentioned in the question must impose currency or capital controls for a "yes" resolution to occur. The purpose of this question is to ask about regulations of monetary flows into and out of the country. The manner in which the currency or capital controls are established and regulated is irrelevant. The controls can be sector or industry specific and can cover any subset of assets (debts, equity, direct investment). An announcement of the establishment of new currency or capital controls will not suffice for a "yes" outcome; the controls need to be imposed before 1 May 2014. A resumption of previously cancelled or relaxed currency or capital controls will count. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Bloomberg). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., none of the countries mentioned have imposed currency or capital controls). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/19/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Currency/Capital Controls 70 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1378-0 0 Will the European Union and/or the U.S. impose new *sanctions on Viktor Yanukovich and/or members of his government before 10 May 2014? The United States and the European Union are considering imposing sanctions against President Viktor Yanukovich and his government if the violence against protesters in Kiev's Maidan Square persists (http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/02/12/us-euro-summit-barroso-ukraine-idUKBREA1B0FK20140212; http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/10/us-eu-ukraine-czechrepublic-idUSBREA190T020140210). The protesters occupied Maiden Square in late November 2013 after the government of Ukraine rejected an EU association agreement and accepted Russia's $15 billion financial aid package. For the purpose of this question, *"sanctions" refer to financial and political sanctions, including but not limited to financial penalties, import tariffs, limitations or cancellations of high-level government visits, expelling or withdrawing diplomatic missions or staff, or bans on trades. Only new sanctions established after 19 February 2014 will count toward the resolution of this question; previous sanctions, old sanctions that were removed, or sanctions currently in place will not suffice. However, sanctions that were previously lifted but are reinstated after 19 February 2014 will suffice for a "yes" resolution. For a "yes" resolution to occur, sanctions can be imposed against Yanukovich himself, against any individual member of his government, or against the Ukrainian government as a whole. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House, U.S. Department of State, the EU). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., no new sanctions imposed on Yanukovich or members of his government) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at some point prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 2/19/2014 2/20/2014 9:00:00 AM 2/21/2014 2/20/2014 a EU/US Sanctions on Yanukovich (Ukraine) 1 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1386-0 0 Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan vacate the office of Prime Minister of Turkey before 10 May 2014? Prime Minister Erdogan has been receiving criticism over his leadership and is facing "one of the greatest challenges of his 11-year rule as he battles a graft scandal" (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/11/us-turkey-idUSBREA1A1I120140211). He will be considered to not have vacated as of this date and time, unless one of the following occurs prior to the deadline (note that each circumstance has qualifications): (1) Leader has died; (2) Leader offers oral or written resignation of office that has taken effect; (3) Leader is stripped of his office and/or replaced with another person (e.g., interim replacement installed in Leader's position) via formal government or electorate action (e.g., parliamentary measure, referendum); (4) Leader is reported to have left the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile; (5) Leader has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether he is alive or whether he is residing within the nation he governs; (6) Leader is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days. For (1), the question can be closed and resolved immediately. For (2)-(3), the question will be closed only when the leader vacates office/power is transferred. For (4) through (6), administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the event's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other circumstances (4)-(6) still holds at the end of this period, the question will retroactively be closed when the circumstance was first reported in the media. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome will be assumed (i.e., Erdogan has not vacated the office of Prime Minister). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
closed 3/5/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Turkey: Erdogan Vacates Office 65 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1391-0 0 Will there be a *significant lethal confrontation between armed forces from Russia and Ukraine in Crimea before 1 April 2014? A *significant lethal confrontation is a clash between Russian and Ukrainian armed forces that produces at least 10 casualties in total from either side. "Between armed forces" includes Russian or Ukrainian military personnel both in uniform and not in uniform, but must be referred to in credible open source media as Russian or Ukrainian troops. This excludes paramilitary groups, insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, rebels, independent militias, or terrorist actors. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., no significant lethal confrontation in Crimea) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day.
closed 3/5/2014 3/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2014 3/31/2014 b Russia-Ukraine Confrontation 26 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1392-0 0 Will *Russian armed forces invade or enter Kharkiv and/or Donetsk before 1 May 2014? For a "yes" resolution, 20 or more members of Russian armed forces must invade or enter the cities mentioned. *"Russian armed forces" can include military personnel both in uniform and not in uniform, but must be referred to in credible open source media as Russian troops. Ukrainian troops who defect and pledge their allegiance to Russia would count as Russian troops for the purposes of this question. Any incursion of Russian troops into the Kharkiv and/or Donetsk city limits qualifies as "invaded" or "entered", even if that entry is described as desired by the population or local authorities. An incursion into the airspace of these cities would not be sufficient for resolution. This definition of "Russian armed forces" excludes paramilitary groups, insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, rebels, independent militias, or terrorist actors. Outcome will be determined by the Government using open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Russian armed forces have not entered/invaded Kharkiv and/or Donestk) will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 3/5/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Russia Invades Kharkiv or Donetsk 56 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1393-0 0 Will Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates return their ambassadors to Qatar before 10 May 2014? In early March 2014, Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar over tensions among the countries on how to handle regional issues (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/07/world/middleeast/egypt-withdraws-ambassador-from-qatar.html; http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/05/world/meast/gulf-qatar-ambassadors/; http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26447914). A "yes" resolution requires the official return of at least one of the ambassadors to their post in Qatar before 10 May 2014. An announcement of the intent to send an ambassador back to Qatar will not suffice. Details such as the number of hours an ambassador spends at the embassy of his/her country in Qatar are irrelevant. Furthermore, the question refers only to those with the rank/title of ambassador. Any other official personnel, including charges d'affaires, will not suffice for an affirmative resolution of the question. Whether the same ambassador returns or a new ambassador is appointed to the post in Qatar is irrelevant for the resolution. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., none of the ambassadors in question have officially returned to their posts in Qatar) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 3/12/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Arab Ambassadors to Qatar 58 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1394-0 0 Before 31 December 2014, will China *seize control of Second Thomas Shoal? Second Thomas Shoal is a low-tide coral reef located in the South China Sea, approximately 105 nautical miles from the Philippines' Palawan Island. Known as Ayungin in the Philippines and Ren'ai Reef in China, the shoal is a strategic gateway to oil and natural gas deposits and is a potential flashpoint for conflict in the region. The shoal is claimed by the Philippines to be within its 200 mile exclusive economic zone and declared by China as part of an area over which it asserts "indisputable sovereignty" (http://www.aspmedia.org/2013/blogs/second-thomas-shoal-likely-the-next-flashpoint-in-the-south-china-sea/; http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/china-philippines-idUKL3N0M72VO20140310). For the purposes of this question, *"seizing control" refers to Chinese armed forces taking sole control of the shoal and surrounding waters. "Sole control" requires the exit of currently stationed Filipino armed forces. Whether the Filipino armed forces leave on their own volition or are forced to leave is irrelevant for the outcome, as is the means by which China achieves control (e.g., invasion, expulsion, blockade of supply delivery), so long as China has sole control of the shoal and surrounding waters. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., China has not seized control of Second Thomas Shoal) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 3/12/2014 12/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/30/2014 12/30/2014 b China: Second Thomas Shoal 293 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1397-0 0 Before 1 May 2014, will the government of Myanmar sign a nationwide ceasefire agreement with the Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT)? The Nationwide Ceasefire Coordination Team (NCCT) was established in November 2013 by more than a dozen armed ethnic rebel groups (http://www.mmpeacemonitor.org/stakeholders/ncct). The government of Myanmar has been in discussion with rebel leaders for some time about striking a nationwide ceasefire agreement, and both sides have agreed to begin working to draft a ceasefire agreement in April 2014 (http://www.rfa.org/english/news/myanmar/nationwide-ceasefire-03102014163312.html; http://www.bnionline.net/index.php/news/mizzima/16805-joint-committee-to-draft-nationwide-ceasefire-agreement-.html). Open source media must report that a nationwide ceasefire agreement has officially been signed by both the government of Myanmar and the NCCT. A public signing ceremony would be sufficient for resolution. For a "yes" resolution to occur the signed agreement must be described as nationwide; agreements with individual rebel groups will not suffice, nor will ceasefire agreements with individual groups that comprise the NCCT. Membership changes to the NCCT, or an official name change, will not affect the resolution of the question. The NCCT, or its successor organization, must officially sign the ceasefire agreement. If the NCCT disintegrates the question will resolve as a "no". Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Radio Free Asia). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., the government of Myanmar has not signed a nationwide ceasefire agreement with the NCCT) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 3/19/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Myanmar Ceasefire 42 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1398-0 0 Will Parti Quebecois hold a majority of seats in the Quebec legislature after the 2014 provincial election? Quebec's provincial election is scheduled for 7 April 2014. Since 2012, Parti Quebecois has held 54 out of the 125 seats in the Quebec National Assembly, and would need 63 seats in the April 2014 election for a majority (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Quebec; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_general_election,_2014). Parti Quebecois' main platform is advocating national sovereignty for Quebec; with a majority in the legislature, they will be likely to initiate a third referendum on whether to separate from Canada (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parti_Qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois; http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/03/10/uk-politics-quebec-idUKBREA2912T20140310; http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2014/03/08/marois_brushes_aside_reported_federal_talks_on_possible_separatist_majority.html). Question will remain open until the results of the election are definitively reported in open source media. The question asks only about the Parti Quebecois holding a majority of all seats in the provincial legislature. Please note that winning a plurality of the votes does not mean that the party has won a majority of seats. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., the Quebec National Assembly website http://www.assnat.qc.ca/en/travaux-parlementaires/index.html). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Parti Quebecois will not hold a majority of seats) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. closed 3/19/2014 4/7/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/7/2014 4/7/2014 b Quebec Elections 19 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1399-1 1 Will a referendum on Quebec's affiliation with Canada be held before 31 December 2014? Quebecers have voted twice before on referendums regarding Quebec's affiliation with Canada, in 1980 and 1995 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Canada; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1980; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995). Since 2012, Parti Quebecois has held 54 out of the 125 seats in the provincial National Assembly, and would need 63 seats in the 7 April 2014 election for a majority (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Quebec; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_general_election,_2014). Parti Quebecois' main platform is advocating national sovereignty for Quebec (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parti_Qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois). A referendum on Quebec's affiliation with Canada may include but not be limited to seeking sovereignty, autonomy, or secession. The outcome of the referendum is irrelevant. Only referenda regarding Quebec's affiliation with Canada will count for the resolution of this question; referenda regarding territorial issues within Quebec would not count, such as http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/akwesasne-to-hold-own-referendum-if-quebec-pursues-sovereignty-1.2585986. In order for a "yes" realization of the condition to occur, the condition (the contingency suggested by the "If") must be realized before the focal question outcome occurs. For example, if the question is "If x happens, will y happen," then x must happen before y in order for condition x to be regarded as "realized." The condition refers to Parti Quebecois holding a majority of all seats in the provincial legislature. Please note that winning a plurality of the votes does not mean that the party has won a majority of seats. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., the Quebec National Assembly website, http://www.assnat.qc.ca/en/travaux-parlementaires/index.html). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., no referendum has been held; Parti Quebecois will not hold a majority of seats) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. voided 4/2/2014 12/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/30/2014 NA Quebec Referendum NA 2 If Parti Quebecois holds a majority of seats in the Quebec provincial legislature beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1399-2 2 Will a referendum on Quebec's affiliation with Canada be held before 31 December 2014? Quebecers have voted twice before on referendums regarding Quebec's affiliation with Canada, in 1980 and 1995 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Referendums_in_Canada; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1980; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_referendum,_1995). Since 2012, Parti Quebecois has held 54 out of the 125 seats in the provincial National Assembly, and would need 63 seats in the 7 April 2014 election for a majority (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_Quebec; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_general_election,_2014). Parti Quebecois' main platform is advocating national sovereignty for Quebec (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parti_Qu%C3%A9b%C3%A9cois). A referendum on Quebec's affiliation with Canada may include but not be limited to seeking sovereignty, autonomy, or secession. The outcome of the referendum is irrelevant. Only referenda regarding Quebec's affiliation with Canada will count for the resolution of this question; referenda regarding territorial issues within Quebec would not count, such as http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/akwesasne-to-hold-own-referendum-if-quebec-pursues-sovereignty-1.2585986. In order for a "yes" realization of the condition to occur, the condition (the contingency suggested by the "If") must be realized before the focal question outcome occurs. For example, if the question is "If x happens, will y happen," then x must happen before y in order for condition x to be regarded as "realized." The condition refers to Parti Quebecois holding a majority of all seats in the provincial legislature. Please note that winning a plurality of the votes does not mean that the party has won a majority of seats. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., the Quebec National Assembly website, http://www.assnat.qc.ca/en/travaux-parlementaires/index.html). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., no referendum has been held; Parti Quebecois will not hold a majority of seats) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 4/2/2014 12/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/30/2014 12/30/2014 b Quebec Referendum 272 2 If Parti Quebecois does not hold a majority of seats in the Quebec provincial legislature beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1400-0 0 Will China's *official annual GDP growth rate be less than 7.5 percent in Q1 2014? *"Official" refers to figures reported by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics (http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/). The annual growth rate for a quarter refers to a comparison of gross domestic product (GDP) in one quarter--here, January through March 2014--to the same quarter a year earlier. Data for the first quarter of 2013 can be seen at http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/statisticaldata/QuarterlyData/201304/t20130428_56809.html. In cases of delayed reporting or problems with the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics site, official data from other Chinese sources may be used. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources that cite data from the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics or other official data (e.g., Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or other question-specific sources). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. closed 3/19/2014 4/15/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/15/2014 4/15/2014 a China GDP Growth 27 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1401-0 0 Before 10 May 2014, will Russia agree to conduct a joint naval exercise with Iran? Iran has approached Russia with an offer to carry out a joint naval exercise in May 2014, however Russia has yet to respond (http://www.wnd.com/2014/02/iran-offers-russia-joint-naval-exercise/). For a "yes" resolution to occur, an announcement that Russia has agreed to conduct a joint naval exercise with Iran must be made by an official representative or spokesperson for the Russian government. The naval exercise does not need to commence for a "yes" resolution. An announcement by Iran that Russia has agreed to conduct a joint naval exercise will suffice, as long as it is not refuted by Russia within a 48-hour period. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Russia has not agreed to conduct joint naval exercises with Iran) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 3/19/2014 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Russia/Iran Joint Naval Exercise 51 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1402-1 1 Between 2 April 2014 and 10 May 2014, will Russia *officially *annex any *additional Ukrainian territory? *Annexation refers to the process by which one state (herein, Russia) incorporates territory that hitherto belonged to another state, was independent, or was unincorporated. On 18 March 2014, Russia signed a treaty with the government of the Republic of Crimea officially incorporating the latter into the former (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/18/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140318). Should Russia seek to annex other parts of Ukraine it may follow the same process, but for the purposes of this question the annexation method employed by Russia is irrelevant. A "yes" resolution does not require that any other country recognize the annexation, only that an official representative of the Russian government announces the incorporation, accession, or any synonym thereof, of Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russias-putin-prepares-to-annex-crimea/2014/03/18/933183b2-654e-45ce-920e-4d18c0ffec73_story.html). *Official would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. *Additional refers to any territory that is part of Ukraine on the day the question launches. In order for a "yes" realization of the condition to occur, the condition (the contingency suggested by the "If") must be realized before the focal question outcome occurs. For example, if the question is "If x happens, will y happen," then x must happen before y in order for condition x to be regarded as "realized." For Condition 1 to occur, credible open source media must report that 20 or more members of Russian armed forces have invaded or entered the cities mentioned, even if Russia officially denies it. *"Russian armed forces" can include military personnel both in uniform and not in uniform, but must be referred to in credible open source media as Russian troops. Ukrainian troops who defect and pledge their allegiance to Russia would count as Russian troops for the purposes of this question. Any incursion of Russian troops into the Kharkiv and/or Donetsk city limits qualifies as "invaded" or "entered", even if that entry is described as desired by the population or local authorities. An incursion into the airspace of these cities would not be sufficient for resolution. This definition of "Russian armed forces" excludes paramilitary groups, insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, rebels, independent militias, or terrorist actors. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Russia has not officially annexed any additional Ukrainian territory; Russian armed forces have not invaded/entered Kharkiv and/or Donetsk) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 ET) of the second date. For example, "Between 1 Oct and 10 Oct" means any time from 00:00:00 ET 1 Oct through and including 23:59:59 ET 10 Oct. voided 4/2/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 NA Russia Annex More of Ukraine NA 2 If Russian armed forces invade or enter Kharkiv and/or Donetsk beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1402-2 2 Between 2 April 2014 and 10 May 2014, will Russia *officially *annex any *additional Ukrainian territory? *Annexation refers to the process by which one state (herein, Russia) incorporates territory that hitherto belonged to another state, was independent, or was unincorporated. On 18 March 2014, Russia signed a treaty with the government of the Republic of Crimea officially incorporating the latter into the former (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/18/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140318). Should Russia seek to annex other parts of Ukraine it may follow the same process, but for the purposes of this question the annexation method employed by Russia is irrelevant. A "yes" resolution does not require that any other country recognize the annexation, only that an official representative of the Russian government announces the incorporation, accession, or any synonym thereof, of Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russias-putin-prepares-to-annex-crimea/2014/03/18/933183b2-654e-45ce-920e-4d18c0ffec73_story.html). *Official would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. *Additional refers to any territory that is part of Ukraine on the day the question launches. In order for a "yes" realization of the condition to occur, the condition (the contingency suggested by the "If") must be realized before the focal question outcome occurs. For example, if the question is "If x happens, will y happen," then x must happen before y in order for condition x to be regarded as "realized." For Condition 1 to occur, credible open source media must report that 20 or more members of Russian armed forces have invaded or entered the cities mentioned, even if Russia officially denies it. *"Russian armed forces" can include military personnel both in uniform and not in uniform, but must be referred to in credible open source media as Russian troops. Ukrainian troops who defect and pledge their allegiance to Russia would count as Russian troops for the purposes of this question. Any incursion of Russian troops into the Kharkiv and/or Donetsk city limits qualifies as "invaded" or "entered", even if that entry is described as desired by the population or local authorities. An incursion into the airspace of these cities would not be sufficient for resolution. This definition of "Russian armed forces" excludes paramilitary groups, insurgents, mercenaries, guerillas, rebels, independent militias, or terrorist actors. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Russia has not officially annexed any additional Ukrainian territory; Russian armed forces have not invaded/entered Kharkiv and/or Donetsk) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Between" should be interpreted to mean at any point during the window after the beginning (12 midnight ET) of the first date, but before the end (23:59:59 ET) of the second date. For example, "Between 1 Oct and 10 Oct" means any time from 00:00:00 ET 1 Oct through and including 23:59:59 ET 10 Oct. closed 4/2/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Russia Annex More of Ukraine 37 2 If Russian armed forces do not invade or enter Kharkiv and/or Donetsk beforehand : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1403-0 0 Will Iran and the P5+1 countries *officially announce an agreement regarding the Arak reactor before 10 May 2014? The second round of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 countries (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P5+1), focusing in part on the heavy-water reactor at Arak, concluded on 19 March 2014. The parties will reconvene for further negotiations on 7 April 2014 (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-iran-nuclear-idUSBREA2G1RX20140319; http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/20/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-talks-end-on-encouraging-note.html?ref=world&_r=0). A "yes" resolution requires an official announcement from any of the P5+1 countries or Iran stating that an agreement regarding the Arak reactor has been reached, so long as this announcement is not refuted by any of the other countries within a 48-hour period. *Official would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. The scope of the agreement is irrelevant; any agreement that includes future plans for the Arak reactor will result in a "yes" outcome as long as it meets the other resolution criteria. Neither the agreement nor specific actions regarding the Arak reactor need to be implemented. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., whitehouse.gov or the EU website). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Iran and the P5+1 have not officially announced an agreement regarding the Arak reactor) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 4/2/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Iran: Arak Reactor Agreement 37 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1405-0 0 Will Nouri al-Maliki's State of Law bloc win more seats than any other entity in the 2014 parliamentary elections in Iraq? Nouri al-Maliki is seeking another term as Prime Minister of Iraq, and his State of Law bloc is a strong contender in Iraq's parliamentary elections scheduled for 30 April 2014 (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26838755). This question refers only to the number of seats that the State of Law bloc will win (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_Law_Coalition). The bloc must win more seats than any other entity in the elections for a "yes" resolution (i.e., a plurality is required, not a majority). A tie will not suffice. A change in the leadership of the State of Law bloc (e.g., al-Maliki or someone else) or a change in the composition of the State of Law bloc (e.g., if an additional party joins or an affiliated party leaves) is irrelevant for the outcome of the question, so long as the bloc is still a functioning organization. An official name change will not affect the outcome, as long as the State of Law bloc or its successor organization wins the largest number of seats. If the State of Law bloc disbands, the question will resolve as "no". Whether Nouri al-Maliki will later win another term is irrelevant for the outcome of the question. The question will remain open until results are definitively reported in credible open source media. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If the election is delayed or cancelled, or in other cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. closed 4/16/2014 5/19/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/19/2014 a Iraq Elections - Maliki 33 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1406-0 0 Will Iran and Russia *officially sign an agreement regarding the exchange of oil for *goods and services before 10 May 2014? Iran and Russia have been negotiating a deal to barter Iranian oil in exchange for Russian goods and services (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/02/us-iran-russia-oil-idUSBREA311ZB20140402; http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13930114000325). For a "yes" resolution to occur, open source media must report that Iran and Russia have officially signed an agreement for the countries to exchange oil for goods and services and such reports must not be refuted by either country within a 48-hour period. An official announcement from either Iran or Russia stating that an agreement has been signed will suffice as well, so long as it is not refuted by the other side within a 48-hour period. *"Official" would be evidenced by a press conference, press release, or other publicly disseminated communique. Regardless of the person or entity making the announcement, the announcement must come from someone authorized to speak on behalf of the entity in question who is in fact making the announcement in a public and official capacity. Conjecture, hypothetical statements, speculation, ultimatums, offhand remarks, or leaked private conversations or reports would not constitute official announcements. *Goods and services refer to tangible items or intangible assistance in any form other than cash/financial aid. The type of goods (e.g., food, metals, military equipment) or services (e.g., Russian construction work, medical services) is irrelevant for the outcome of the question, as long as the agreement refers to the exchange of Iranian oil in return for Russian goods or services. The physical exchange of oil and goods/services is not necessary for a "yes" outcome, only media reports that an agreement has been signed by both parties. An agreement about general economic cooperation will not suffice; the agreement must involve the exchange of oil for goods/services. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Iran and Russia have not officially signed an agreement regarding the exchange of oil for goods/services) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 4/9/2014 5/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/9/2014 5/9/2014 b Iran/Russia Oil Agreement 30 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1409-0 0 Will a runoff be required in Brazil's 2014 presidential election? The first round of voting is scheduled for 5 October 2014. A runoff, if needed, is scheduled for 26 October 2014. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the election is delayed indefinitely or cancelled, or in other cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator reserves the right to consult outside experts about how to proceed and/or void the question. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: a runoff will not be required in Brazil's 2014 presidential election. closed 8/20/2014 10/5/2014 9:00:00 AM 10/5/2014 10/5/2014 a Brazil Presidential Runoff 46 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1410-0 0 Will an independence referendum *pass in Scotland? Voting is scheduled for 18 September 2014. *For the referendum to pass, more than 50% of votes cast must be in favor of Scottish independence. Outcome will be determined when results of the vote are definitively reported in open source media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the voting is delayed indefinitely or cancelled, or in other cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator reserves the right to consult outside experts about how to proceed and/or void the question. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the independence referendum will not have passed in Scotland. closed 8/20/2014 9/18/2014 9:00:00 AM 9/18/2014 9/18/2014 b Scotland Referendum 29 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1411-1 1 Will North Korea test a *long-range missile **before 1 June 2015? *A long-range missile will be considered, in this case, one that has the reported ability to reach the continental United States, Alaska, or Hawaii. The test of rocket engines with the capacity to hit the continental United States, Alaska, or Hawaii would also count for a "yes" resolution. A past example of a test that would count is North Korea's space launch on December 12, 2012 (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/24/world/asia/north-korean-rocket-had-military-purpose-seoul-says.html?_r=0). The success of the test, and the actual distance traveled, are irrelevant. South Korea is weighing options for its missile defense needs (http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2992350; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-04/south-korea-eyes-thaad-patriot-3-missile-systems-u-s-says.html). For the purposes of this question, the following situations will count as the condition being realized: a) South Korea agrees to allow U.S. Forces in Korea to deploy and control the THAAD system, b) South Korea agrees to receive a loan of the THAAD system, or c) South Korea agrees to purchase the THAAD system. Actual deployment of the THAAD system is not required. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: North Korea has not tested a long-range missile and South Korea has not agreed to deploy the U.S. military's THAAD. voided 8/20/2014 5/31/2015 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2015 NA N.Korea Missile Test NA 2 If South Korea agrees to deploy the U.S. military's Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1411-2 2 Will North Korea test a *long-range missile **before 1 June 2015? *A long-range missile will be considered, in this case, one that has the reported ability to reach the continental United States, Alaska, or Hawaii. The test of rocket engines with the capacity to hit the continental United States, Alaska, or Hawaii would also count for a "yes" resolution. A past example of a test that would count is North Korea's space launch on December 12, 2012 (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/24/world/asia/north-korean-rocket-had-military-purpose-seoul-says.html?_r=0). The success of the test, and the actual distance traveled, are irrelevant. South Korea is weighing options for its missile defense needs (http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/Article.aspx?aid=2992350; http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-04/south-korea-eyes-thaad-patriot-3-missile-systems-u-s-says.html). For the purposes of this question, the following situations will count as the condition being realized: a) South Korea agrees to allow U.S. Forces in Korea to deploy and control the THAAD system, b) South Korea agrees to receive a loan of the THAAD system, or c) South Korea agrees to purchase the THAAD system. Actual deployment of the THAAD system is not required. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: North Korea has not tested a long-range missile and South Korea has not agreed to deploy the U.S. military's THAAD. closed 8/20/2014 5/31/2015 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b N.Korea Missile Test 284 2 If South Korea does not agree to deploy the U.S. military's Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1412-0 0 Will the TOPIX Index close at or below 1200.00 **between 20 August 2014 and 31 October 2014? TOPIX is the Tokyo Stock Price Index, a weighted index of all companies listed on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing values reported by Bloomberg during the question's open period, at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/TPX:IND/chart. In case of delayed reporting or problems with the Bloomberg website, reporting by other credible open sources may be used (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the TOPIX Index has not closed at or below 1200.00 between 20 August 2014 and 31 October 2014. closed 8/20/2014 10/15/2014 9:00:00 AM 10/31/2014 10/15/2014 a TOPIX Closing Value 56 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1413-0 0 Will the Kurdistan Regional Government *hold a referendum on national independence **before 1 January 2015? Amidst a backdrop of violence in Iraq, Kurdish leader Masud Barzani has discussed plans for holding an independence referendum in the region (http://www.vox.com/2014/8/12/5991425/kurds-iraq-kurdistan-peshmerga, http://www.rferl.org/content/iraq-kurds-independence-talk-power-play/25459559.html). *The question will resolve as "yes" when credible open source media report that voting in a referendum has begun. A referendum held in the city of Kirkuk, outside the Kurdish region, would not count for the purposes of this question. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the Kurdistan Regional Government has not held a referendum on national independence. closed 8/20/2014 12/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2014 12/31/2014 b Kurdistan Referendum 133 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1414-0 0 On 15 September 2014, will the Arctic sea ice extent be less than that of 15 September 2013? *The sea ice extent is the total surface area of the Arctic under ice cover; a lower sea ice extent makes shipping and fishing in the region more feasible. In recent years, mid-September has marked the point at which Arctic sea ice extent has decreased to its lowest point, after which the freeze begins again. On 15 September 2013, the Arctic sea ice extent was 4,834,931 square kilometers (km2). Outcome will be determined on 15 September 2014 by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Arctic Sea Ice Monitor, at http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm. For historical trends, click "data download" and save as a csv file. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Arctic sea ice extent on 15 September 2014 will not be less than 4,834,931 square kilometers.
closed 8/20/2014 9/15/2014 9/15/2014 9/15/2014 b Arctic Sea Ice 26 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1415-0 0 Will there be a **lethal confrontation involving Russian **national military forces in Ukraine **before 1 October 2014? **Lethal confrontation, in this case, refers to a direct clash involving Russian **national military forces that results in at least three (3) fatalities from among the actors involved (e.g., Russian forces, Ukrainian national military forces, insurgent fighters). Civilian fatalities will not count for the purposes of this question. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been a lethal confrontation involving Russian national military forces in Ukraine. closed 8/20/2014 8/26/2014 9:00:00 AM 9/30/2014 8/26/2014 a Russia/Ukraine Confrontation 6 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1416-0 0 Will North Korea detonate a nuclear device **before 1 January 2015? Past examples of North Korean nuclear detonations include those listed here: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706. There has been speculation that North Korea may be planning a nuclear detonation (http://38north.org/2014/08/punggye081114/). A detonation either for testing or military purposes would count; however, computer simulations, controlled chain reactions within nuclear reactors, or detonation of radiological devices (e.g., "dirty bombs") will not count. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: North Korea has not detonated a nuclear device during the question's open period. closed 8/27/2014 12/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2014 12/31/2014 b North Korea nuclear device 126 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1417-0 0 Will Kim Jong Un meet a *head of state from one of the G7 countries, South Korea, China, or Russia **before 1 June 2015? *Heads of state from the G7 countries, South Korea, China, or Russia refer to the following people or their successors: Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Canada), President Francois Hollande (France), Chancellor Angela Merkel (Germany), Prime Minister Mateo Renzi (Italy), Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Japan), Prime Minister David Cameron (United Kingdom), President Barack Obama (United States), President Park Gyun-Hye (South Korea), President Xi Jinping (China), or President Vladimir Putin (Russia). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Kim Jong Un has not met a *head of state from a G7 country, South Korea, China, or Russia. closed 8/27/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Kim Jong Un meeting head of state 277 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1418-0 0 Will Afghanistan sign a Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States **before 1 November 2014? A draft Bilateral Security Agreement between Afghanistan and the United States was reached in November 2013, and both Afghan presidential candidates have indicated a willingness to sign it (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140708/DEFREG01/307080027/NATO-Chief-Warns-Afghanistan-Must-Sign-Security-Pact-by-Early-September, http://www.voanews.com/content/us-ambassador-deadlines-loom-in-afghanistan/2417392.html). For the purposes of this question, ratification is not required. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Afghanistan has not signed a Bilateral Security Agreement with the United States. closed 8/27/2014 9/29/2014 9:00:00 AM 10/31/2014 9/29/2014 a Afghan Bilateral Security Agreement 33 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1419-1 1 Will the World Trade Organization's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) protocol be approved by all WTO members **before 1 January 2015? On 31 July 2014, India refused to approve the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), citing concerns about the WTO's food subsidy rules; a "yes" resolution requires that all member states reach a consensus to approve the TFA protocol (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/31/us-india-trade-wto-idUSKBN0G009R20140731). The TFA does not need to be domestically ratified by member states nor does it need to enter into force for the purposes of this question. *New WTO food subsidy rules would include either the maximum amount of allowed food subsidy being increased (from 10%), or the base year used to calculate food prices being changed (from 1986-88) (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/04/opinion/global-trade-talks-suffer-another-setback.html?_r=0). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement has not been approved by all WTO members, and no new WTO food subsidy rules are approved, such that a cap on domestic food subsidies remains at 10% of total grain production, and 1986-88 remains the base years used for that calculation. voided 8/27/2014 11/27/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2014 NA WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement NA 2 If new WTO food subsidy rules are approved : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1419-2 2 Will the World Trade Organization's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) protocol be approved by all WTO members **before 1 January 2015? On 31 July 2014, India refused to approve the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), citing concerns about the WTO's food subsidy rules; a "yes" resolution requires that all member states reach a consensus to approve the TFA protocol (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/31/us-india-trade-wto-idUSKBN0G009R20140731). The TFA does not need to be domestically ratified by member states nor does it need to enter into force for the purposes of this question. *New WTO food subsidy rules would include either the maximum amount of allowed food subsidy being increased (from 10%), or the base year used to calculate food prices being changed (from 1986-88) (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/04/opinion/global-trade-talks-suffer-another-setback.html?_r=0). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the WTO's Trade Facilitation Agreement has not been approved by all WTO members, and no new WTO food subsidy rules are approved, such that a cap on domestic food subsidies remains at 10% of total grain production, and 1986-88 remains the base years used for that calculation. closed 8/27/2014 11/27/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2014 11/27/2014 a WTO Trade Facilitation Agreement 92 2 If new WTO food subsidy rules are not approved : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1420-0 0 Will China officially declare an *Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea **before 1 June 2015? *An Air-Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) is an area extending beyond a country's territory in which unidentified aircraft are eligible for interception. For more information, see http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/26cf55ce-58da-11e3-a7cb-00144feabdc0.html#axzz39dxcogMz. The official declaration of a new ADIZ over any part of the South China Sea would count, as would an extension of the existing Chinese ADIZ in the East China Sea. For more information on the conflict in the South China Sea, see http://www.cfr.org/china/south-china-sea-tensions/p29790. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: China has not officially declared an *ADIZ over any part of the South China Sea. closed 8/27/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b China ADIZ in South China Sea 277 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1421-0 0 Will the New Development Bank **officially announce that a loan will be made to a country **before 1 June 2015? Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (when grouped together, the BRICS) created the New Development Bank in July 2014, with the intent to extend development loans as a counterweight to the IMF and World Bank (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/07/17/what-the-new-bank-of-brics-is-all-about/). The actual disbursement of a loan is not required for a "yes" resolution. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the New Development Bank has not **officially announced that a loan will be made to a country. closed 8/27/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b New Development Bank loans 277 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1422-0 0 Will Islamic State (IS) fighters **attack a country other than Iraq or Syria **between 27 August 2014 and 15 October 2014? The insurgent group Islamic State (IS), also known as ISIL or ISIS, has posed a threat to the Middle East in recent months (http://www.cfr.org/iraq/islamic-state-iraq-syria/p14811). Changes in Islamic State's name or composition are irrelevant, so long as the group does not disband entirely; an official successor group will count. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Islamic State fighters have not **attacked a country other than Iraq or Syria between 27 August and 15 October 2014. voided 8/27/2014 NULL 10/14/2014 NA IS attacks outside of Iraq or Syria NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1423-0 0 Will China **officially announce a *peak year for its carbon emissions **before 1 June 2015? China faces international pressure to announce a peak year (or "cap" year) for its carbon emissions. *A peak year is the one in which the maximum emission level is reached and would subsequently be reduced in years to follow (http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/china-clarifies-its-plans-on-setting-a-co2-emissions-peak/). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: China has not officially announced a peak year (or "cap year") for its carbon emissions. closed 9/3/2014 11/11/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2015 11/11/2014 a China peak carbon 69 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1424-0 0 Will the highest end-of-day close for the U.S. dollar-Russian ruble exchange rate exceed 38.00 **between 3 September 2014 and 30 November 2014? Outcome will be determined by the highest end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg, at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR. For historical trends, see http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDRUB:CUR/chart. In case of delayed reporting or problems with the Bloomberg website, reporting by other credible open sources may be used. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the highest end-of-day close for the U.S. dollar-Russian ruble exchange rate has not exceeded 38.00 **between 3 September 2014 and 30 November 2014. closed 9/3/2014 9/15/2014 11/29/2014 9/15/2014 a Dollar-ruble exchange rate 12 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1425-0 0 Will ambassadors from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates officially return to their posts in Qatar **before 1 June 2015? In March 2014, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates withdrew their ambassadors from Qatar over tensions among the countries on how to handle regional issues (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26447914). A "yes" resolution requires the official, physical return of at least one of the ambassadors to their post in Qatar; an announcement of the intent to send an ambassador back to Qatar will not suffice. Furthermore, the question refers only to those with the rank/title of ambassador; any other official personnel, including charges d'affaires, will not suffice. Whether the same ambassador returns or a new ambassador is appointed to the post in Qatar is irrelevant for the resolution of the question. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Ambassadors from Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates have not officially returned to their posts in Qatar. closed 9/3/2014 11/17/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2015 11/17/2014 a Gulf ambassadors 75 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1427-0 0 Will Russia officially annex any *additional Ukrainian territory **before 1 January 2015? In March 2014, Russia signed a treaty with the government of the Republic of Crimea officially incorporating the latter into the former (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/18/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA1Q1E820140318). Russia will be considered to have officially annexed Ukrainian territory if it incorporates *additional territory (i.e., aside from Crimea) that currently belongs to Ukraine, including contested territory claimed by separatist rebels. A "yes" resolution does not require that any other country recognize the annexation, only that Russia **officially announces the incorporation, accession, or other similar process, of Ukrainian territory into the Russian Federation (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russias-putin-prepares-to-annex-crimea/2014/03/18/933183b2-654e-45ce-920e-4d18c0ffec73_story.html). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Russia has not officially annexed any *additional Ukrainian territory. closed 9/3/2014 12/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2014 12/31/2014 b Russia annexation of Ukraine 119 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1428-0 0 Will Nawaz Sharif **vacate the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan **before 1 January 2015? Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is facing pressure to resign, but vows to remain in office (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-08-27/sharif-says-pakistan-s-law-and-constitution-will-be-upheld.html). **A leader will be deemed to have vacated their office if they have 1) died; 2) resigned their office; 3) been stripped of their office and/or replaced (by, e.g., judicial rulings, electorate action, or military coups); 4) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether they are alive or residing within the nation they govern; or 5) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first three situations, the question will close immediately; for options 4 and 5, Administrator will typically announce and subsequently observe a three-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in credible open source media, after which the question will be closed. **This procedure is unique to this question and supersedes that outlined on the GJP Standard Definitions page. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Nawaz Sharif has not **vacated the office of Prime Minister of Pakistan. closed 9/3/2014 12/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2014 12/31/2014 b Sharif vacate office 119 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1429-0 0 Will **national military force(s) from one or more countries *intervene in Syria **before 1 December 2014? Syria, destabilized by civil war, is one of the countries out of which the Islamic State (IS) is operating (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/23/world/middleeast/assad-supporters-weigh-benefits-of-us-strikes-in-syria.html). An *intervention, in this case, will be considered the use of **national military force(s) to oppose armed groups in Syria (e.g., airstrikes, the deployment of troops). The provision of support services alone will not be sufficient (e.g., sending military advisers, providing surveillance, or transferring military equipment). For the purposes of this question, the countries represented must acknowledge the intervention, though they do not have to use this term specifically. Whether the intervention is done with the assent of the Syrian government is irrelevant. Inadvertent shelling or border crossing would not count. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: **national military force(s) from one or more countries have not *intervened in Syria. closed 9/3/2014 11/29/2014 11:59:00 PM 11/30/2014 9/22/2014 a Syria intervention 19 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1430-0 0 Will there be a **lethal confrontation between China's **national military forces and the **national military forces of another country in the South China Sea region **before 1 June 2015? For more information on conflict in the South China Sea, see http://www.cfr.org/china/south-china-sea-tensions/p29790. For the purposes of this question, **national military forces includes law enforcement and coast guards. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been a lethal confrontation involving China's **national military forces and the **national military forces of another country in the South China Sea. closed 9/17/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Lethal confrontation in South China Sea 256 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1432-0 0 Will the VSTOXX Index close at or above 23.00 **before 1 May 2015? The VSTOXX is an index representing the volatility of the EURO STOXX 50 index. Outcome will be determined according to the STOXX website, at http://www.stoxx.com/indices/index_information.html?symbol=V2TX. Historical data can be found under the "Chart" tab. In case of problems with the STOXX website, data reported by other credible open sources may be used. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: VSTOXX has not closed at or above 23.00 during the question's open period. closed 9/17/2014 10/9/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2015 10/9/2014 a VSTOXX index 22 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1433-0 0 Will the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) close at or above 25.00 **before 5 June 2015? A high value for the Oil Volatility Index (OVX) is representative of larger price deviations from the mean daily price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. Outcome will be determined by the closing price quote from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) at http://www.cboe.com/micro/oilvix/introduction.aspx. In case of problems with the CBOE website, data reported by other credible open sources may be used. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: OVX has not closed at or above 25.00 during the question's open period. closed 9/17/2014 10/7/2014 9:00:00 AM 6/4/2015 10/7/2014 a Oil volatility index 20 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1434-0 0 **Before 1 January 2015, will Bulgaria **officially announce that work on the South Stream Pipeline project will resume? Bulgaria is a critical point for Russia's South Stream Pipeline project to bring gas into southeastern Europe and Austria (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/01/business/international/south-stream-pipeline-project-in-bulgaria-is-delayed.html?_r=0). In June 2014, pressured by the EU and the US to put an end to South Stream, Bulgaria announced that work on the project would be suspended despite Russian pressure to continue (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/828f0226-efe1-11e3-bee7-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl#axzz3CMUiTZhx, http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28854089). **Official announcements about the resumption of any work related to the project (e.g., contract negotiations, construction) would count. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Bulgaria has not **officially announced that work on the South Stream Pipeline project will resume. closed 9/17/2014 12/31/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2014 12/31/2014 b South Stream Resumption 105 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1435-0 0 Will NATO invite any new countries to join the *Membership Action Plan (MAP) **before 1 June 2015? NATO *Membership Action Plans (MAPs) are "programs of advice, assistance and practical support tailored to the individual needs of countries wishing to join the Alliance" (http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28978699). Invitations to the MAP will count even if they come with conditions, e.g., requiring specific reforms to be instituted first. Changes to the status of existing MAP invitations will not count for the purposes of this question (i.e., Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Montenegro). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: NATO has not invited any new countries to join the Membership Action Plan (MAP). closed 9/17/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b NATO MAP 256 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1437-0 0 **Before 1 June 2015, will the Mangyongbong-92 **officially resume transit between North Korea and Japan? The Mangyongbong-92 is a North Korean passenger ferry that has been banned from entry into Japanese ports since 2006 (http://bigstory.ap.org/article/north-korean-ship-symbolizes-hopes-japan-ties). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. There must be evidence that both North Korea and Japan have agreed on the ferry **officially resuming transit. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the Mangyongbong-92 has not **officially resumed transit between North Korea and Japan. closed 9/24/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b North Korea ferry 249 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1438-0 0 **Before 1 April 2015, will Russia *initiate a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute against the European Union, Canada, or the United States? Russian officials have complained that sanctions imposed since spring 2014 by the EU, Canada, and the US violate the principles of the WTO, and have hinted at filing a dispute in protest of those sanctions (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/18/us-ukraine-crisis-putin-idUSKBN0HD17V20140918). *Initiation of a dispute would be evidenced by a formal request for WTO consultations. The outcome of those consultations is irrelevant. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP), **official announcements, or the WTO's Russia page at http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/countries_e/russia_e.htm. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Russia has not *initiated a World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute against the European Union, Canada, or the United States. closed 9/24/2014 3/31/2015 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2015 3/31/2015 b Russia sanctions to WTO 188 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1440-0 0 Will Mahmoud Abbas **vacate the office of President of the Palestinian Authority **before 1 June 2015? Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' political clout has been challenged after the most recent crisis in Gaza (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/18/us-palestinians-successor-insight-idUSKBN0HD19720140918, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/world/middleeast/abbas-seen-as-ready-to-seek-mideast-pact-on-his-own.html). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Mahmoud Abbas has not **vacated the office of President of the Palestinian Authority. closed 9/24/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Abbas vacate office 249 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1442-0 0 Will the World Health Organization report any *confirmed cases of Ebola in a European Union member state **before 1 June 2015? Outcome will be determined by the World Health Organization's outbreak news page for Ebola, at http://www.who.int/csr/don/archive/disease/ebola/en/. European patients whose cases of Ebola have been confirmed as part of the outbreak in West Africa and are transported back to Europe for treatment will not count. *Cases reported as "suspected" prior to the question's close date will not count, even if they are "confirmed" after the question's close date. For a list of EU member states, see http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/index_en.htm. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the World Health Organization has not reported any confirmed cases of Ebola in a European Union member state. closed 9/24/2014 10/6/2014 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2015 10/6/2014 a Ebola in Europe 12 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1443-0 0 Will the Islamic State **attack Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates **before 1 February 2015? Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have joined the United States in carrying out airstrikes in Syria against the Islamic State (IS), also known as ISIL or ISIS (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29321136). For the purposes of this question, **attacks could include individual acts of violence (e.g., the use of improvised explosive devices or suicide bombings). Changes in Islamic State's name or composition are irrelevant, so long as the group does not disband entirely; an official successor group will count, but affiliated groups, and groups or individuals claiming to be inspired by IS, will not. **Attacks on the relevant countries' embassies in Iraq or Syria would not count. The execution of captured citizens from the relevant countries would not, in the absence of an **attack, be sufficient for a "yes" resolution. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: The Islamic State has not **attacked Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, or the United Arab Emirates during the question's open period. closed 10/1/2014 11/3/2014 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2015 11/3/2014 a ISIS Reprisal 33 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1447-0 0 Will construction on the Nicaragua Canal begin **before 1 January 2015? A "yes" resolution requires physical work to begin on some portion of the Nicaragua Canal itself. Physical work refers to, for example, on-site excavation or construction, which is distinct from planning, surveying, or the manufacturing or delivery of materials (http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/sep/30/nicaragua-canal-forest-displace-people). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: construction on the Nicaragua Canal has not begun. voided 10/1/2014 NULL 12/31/2014 NA Nicaragua canal NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1448-1 1 Will Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying **vacate office **before 1 February 2015? Mr. Leung has become a target of the recent protests in Hong Kong, particularly as talks between the government and protest leaders have broken down (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/asia/for-hong-kong-leader-pressure-builds-from-both-sides.html, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/hong-kong-government-backs-out-of-talks-students-vow-new-protests/2014/10/09/db79d8fe-4fb6-11e4-babe-e91da079cb8a_story.html). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying has not **vacated office and **talks have not been held between the government of Hong Kong and protesters.
closed 10/15/2014 1/31/2015 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2015 1/31/2015 b Hong Kong Chief Executive 108 2 If talks are held between the government of Hong Kong and protesters : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1448-2 2 Will Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying **vacate office **before 1 February 2015? Mr. Leung has become a target of the recent protests in Hong Kong, particularly as talks between the government and protest leaders have broken down (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/world/asia/for-hong-kong-leader-pressure-builds-from-both-sides.html, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/hong-kong-government-backs-out-of-talks-students-vow-new-protests/2014/10/09/db79d8fe-4fb6-11e4-babe-e91da079cb8a_story.html). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying has not **vacated office and **talks have not been held between the government of Hong Kong and protesters.
voided 10/15/2014 1/31/2015 9:00:00 AM 1/31/2015 NA Hong Kong Chief Executive NA 2 If talks are not held between the government of Hong Kong and protesters : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1449-0 0 Will the People's Armed Police or the People's Liberation Army respond to protests in Hong Kong **before 1 December 2014? Should protests continue, some fear China may respond by dispatching the People's Armed Police (PAP) or the People's Liberation Army (PLA) to intervene (http://warontherocks.com/2014/10/the-hong-kong-countdown/, http://www.janes.com/article/44110/pla-tools-up-in-hong-kong). Only PAP and PLA forces in uniform will count. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Neither the People's Armed Police nor the People's Liberation Army have responded to protests in Hong Kong.
closed 10/15/2014 11/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 11/30/2014 11/30/2014 b China Police in Hong Kong 46 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1450-0 0 Will OPEC agree to cut its oil output at or before its 27 November 2014 meeting? Falling oil prices have led to speculation that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) might collectively cut oil output for the first time in six years at or before their 27 November 2014 meeting (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/14/business/energy-environment/oil-prices-fall-as-opec-members-fight-for-market-share.html, http://www.vox.com/2014/10/7/6934819/oil-prices-falling-russia-OPEC-shale-boom-gasoline-prices). Output cuts do not need to take effect for a "yes" resolution. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: OPEC has not agreed to cut its oil output at or before its 27 November 2014 meeting.
closed 10/15/2014 11/27/2014 9:00:00 AM 11/27/2014 11/27/2014 b OPEC Cut Output 43 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1454-0 0 Will Germany **officially report a negative GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2014? By placing an emphasis on austerity measures to balance the budget, Germany's economic growth has slowed (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/20/germany-economy-bundesbank-idUSL6N0SF28K20141020, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/10/business/international/as-growth-in-germany-fades-merkel-hints-at-a-shift-in-economic-policy.html). *Data for Germany's quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted, real GDP growth can be found in the last column of the GDP chart from the German Federal Statistical Office (https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/Indicators/ShortTermIndicators/NationalAccounts/kvgr111.html). Outcome will be determined by the official German data referenced above; data for the third quarter will be released by the German Federal Statistical office in mid-November (https://www.destatis.de/EN/Meta/abisz/BIP_e.html). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Germany has not **officially reported a negative GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2014. closed 10/22/2014 11/13/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/15/2014 11/13/2014 b German GDP 22 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1455-0 0 Will Iran host a *head of state from one of the G8 countries or China on an official visit **before 1 June 2015? Iran has increasingly been engaging with the rest of the world, including participating in talks on the state of the country's nuclear program and seeking membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/irans-dinner-diplomacy, http://thediplomat.com/2014/09/the-new-improved-shanghai-cooperation-organization/). *Heads of state from the G8 countries or China refer to the following people or their successors: Prime Minister Stephen Harper (Canada), President Francois Hollande (France), Chancellor Angela Merkel (Germany), Prime Minister Mateo Renzi (Italy), Prime Minister Shinzo Abe (Japan), Prime Minister David Cameron (United Kingdom), President Barack Obama (United States), President Vladimir Putin (Russia), or President Xi Jinping (China). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Iran has not hosted a *head of state from one of the G8 countries or China on an official visit. closed 10/22/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Iran Hosts Head of State 221 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1457-0 0 Will a *no-fly zone over any part of Syria be **officially announced **before 1 March 2015? Turkey has been pushing for a no-fly zone over Syria as part of the fight against the Islamic State (IS), also known as ISIL or ISIS (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/27/world/middleeast/us-considers-a-no-fly-zone-to-protect-civilians-from-airstrikes-by-syria-.html, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/20/us-mideast-crisis-syria-un-idUSKCN0I91O720141020). *A no-fly zone is an area over which aircraft are not permitted to fly. Any no-fly zone over Syria, whether over the whole country or merely part of the country, would count. In addition, a no-fly zone applying only to the aircraft of specific countries or groups and a no-fly zone announced as part of a broader "buffer zone" or a "safe zone" would count for a "yes" resolution. However, a no-fly zone announced by either the Syrian government or the Islamic State would not count. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been an **official announcement of a no-fly zone over any part of Syria. closed 10/22/2014 2/28/2015 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2015 2/28/2015 b Syrian No-Fly Zone 129 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1459-0 0 Will Goodluck Jonathan **vacate the office of President of Nigeria **before 10 June 2015? Besides presidential elections upcoming in February 2015, Nigeria's incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan faces a number of political challenges at home (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-15/nigeria-s-old-political-faces-resurface-as-opposition-contenders.html, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/24/world/africa/boko-harm-abducts-more-women-despite-claims-of-nigeria-cease-fire.html). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Goodluck Jonathan has not **vacated the office of President of Nigeria. closed 10/29/2014 5/28/2015 9:00:00 AM 6/9/2015 5/28/2015 a Goodluck Jonathan vacate office 211 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1460-0 0 Will 2014 be Earth's warmest calendar year *on record? Following the warmest summer on record, with August and September 2014 also both setting temperature records, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Climatic Data Center suggests that 2014 could end up being the warmest year on record (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/20/after-record-warm-september-2014-is-on-track-to-warmest-year-noaa-says/, http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2014-on-track-to-be-warmest-year-18205). *The question will resolve as "yes" if both NOAA and NASA report that the 2014 combined average temperature, over both land and ocean surfaces, is the warmest year on record. Outcome will be determined by NOAA (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/) and NASA (http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts%2BdSST.txt) or credible open source media reporting of NOAA and NASA data (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). The question will remain open until relevant data are released. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: 2014 has not been Earth's warmest calendar year *on record. closed 10/29/2014 1/15/2015 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2015 1/15/2015 a Global temperatures 78 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1461-0 0 Will there be a *significant **lethal confrontation between **national military forces from Iran and Pakistan **before 15 December 2014? Continued border skirmishes have raised questions about whether the dispute between Iran and Pakistan will escalate; diplomats have committed to increasing border control but the situation on the ground remains tenuous (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29752647, http://www.dawn.com/news/1140773/pakistan-iran-to-strengthen-border-control). A *significant **lethal confrontation would be considered a clash involving both the **national military forces of Iran and the **national military forces of Pakistan (including their respective border guards and members of law enforcement) in which 15 or more fatalities are reported. Any fatalities resulting from the confrontation would count, including the actors directly involved as well as others indirectly involved (e.g., civilians, militias). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been a *significant **lethal confrontation between the **national military forces from Iran and Pakistan. closed 10/29/2014 12/14/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/14/2014 12/14/2014 b Iran/Pakistan Lethal confrontation 46 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1462-0 0 **Before 10 June 2015, will Iraq's parliament approve the creation of an Iraqi National Guard? A plan to create an Iraqi National Guard is a US-backed project to integrate tribal militias into a fighting force to counter the growing threat from the Islamic State; Prime Minister Abadi submitted the idea to Parliament as part of his plan of action in mid-October (http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/09/iraq-national-guard-sunni-militias.html, http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-backed-plan-for-iraqi-national-guard-unraveling-1413493028, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-13/sunni-reawakening-in-iraq-hinges-on-national-guard.html). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Iraq's parliament has not approved the creation of an Iraqi National Guard. closed 10/29/2014 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Iraqi National Guard 223 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1464-0 0 **Before 1 January 2015, will the spot price of iron ore fall below US$71.00 per ton? With prices already at a five-year low, there is worry that oversupply will drive prices even lower (http://www.smh.com.au/business/mining-and-resources/chinese-traders-tip-iron-ore-to-hit-us70-20141106-11hwam.html, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-07/vale-says-global-iron-ore-market-won-t-be-oversupplied-forever.html). Outcome will be determined by the lowest iron ore spot price reported in credible open source media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the spot price of iron ore has not fallen below US$71.00 per ton. closed 11/12/2014 11/19/2014 9:00:00 AM 12/31/2014 11/19/2014 a Iron ore price 7 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1466-0 0 **Before 10 June 2015, will NATO invoke Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty? The North Atlantic Treaty is the founding document of the NATO alliance; Article 5 is the part of that treaty that establishes the principle of collective defense, under which an attack on any member is regarded as an attack on all members (http://www.nato.int/terrorism/five.htm, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_67656.htm). Outcome will be determined by **official announcements or credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) of those announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: NATO has not invoked Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. closed 11/12/2014 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b NATO Article 5 209 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1467-1 1 Will negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) be completed **before 10 June 2015? TPP negotiations among twelve Pacific Rim nations have stalled; the parties met in early November 2014 as part of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Beijing (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-china-apec-usa-idUSKCN0IU0CW20141110, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/japans-abe-says-tpp-trade-talks-with-us-are-near-the-final-stage/2014/11/07/24ba0b42-63a8-11e4-ab86-46000e1d0035_story.html). *Trade promotion authority, also called fast-track negotiation authority, must be passed by both houses of Congress for a "yes" resolution (http://online.wsj.com/articles/a-fresh-start-for-pacific-trade-1415577301, http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/11/03/could-a-gop-senate-takeover-jumpstart-obamas-foreign-policy/). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have not been completed, and legislation granting President Obama *trade promotion authority has not been passed. voided 11/12/2014 6/9/2015 9:00:00 AM 6/9/2015 NA TPP Negotiations NA 2 If legislation granting President Obama trade promotion authority is passed by Congress : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1467-2 2 Will negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) be completed **before 10 June 2015? TPP negotiations among twelve Pacific Rim nations have stalled; the parties met in early November 2014 as part of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings in Beijing (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/10/us-china-apec-usa-idUSKCN0IU0CW20141110, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/japans-abe-says-tpp-trade-talks-with-us-are-near-the-final-stage/2014/11/07/24ba0b42-63a8-11e4-ab86-46000e1d0035_story.html). *Trade promotion authority, also called fast-track negotiation authority, must be passed by both houses of Congress for a "yes" resolution (http://online.wsj.com/articles/a-fresh-start-for-pacific-trade-1415577301, http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/11/03/could-a-gop-senate-takeover-jumpstart-obamas-foreign-policy/). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) have not been completed, and legislation granting President Obama *trade promotion authority has not been passed. closed 11/12/2014 6/9/2015 9:00:00 AM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b TPP Negotiations 209 2 If legislation granting President Obama trade promotion authority is not passed by Congress : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1472-1 1 Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed **before 10 June 2015? Negotiations over the TTIP have stalled as a result of disagreement, among other issues, on the inclusion of an Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provision (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/30/us-usa-trade-ttip-idUSKBN0IJ2FC20141030, http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21623756-governments-are-souring-treaties-protect-foreign-investors-arbitration, http://www.ustr.gov/about-us/press-office/blog/2014/March/Facts-Investor-State%20Dispute-Settlement-Safeguarding-Public-Interest-Protecting-Investors). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: negotiations on TTIP have not been completed, nor have the EU and the US **officially announced that they have agreed to include a provision on Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). voided 11/19/2014 6/9/2015 9:00:00 AM 6/9/2015 NA TTIP Negotiations NA 2 If the EU and the US officially announce that they have agreed to include a provision on Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1472-2 2 Will negotiations on the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) be completed **before 10 June 2015? Negotiations over the TTIP have stalled as a result of disagreement, among other issues, on the inclusion of an Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provision (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/30/us-usa-trade-ttip-idUSKBN0IJ2FC20141030, http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21623756-governments-are-souring-treaties-protect-foreign-investors-arbitration, http://www.ustr.gov/about-us/press-office/blog/2014/March/Facts-Investor-State%20Dispute-Settlement-Safeguarding-Public-Interest-Protecting-Investors). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: negotiations on TTIP have not been completed, nor have the EU and the US **officially announced that they have agreed to include a provision on Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS). closed 11/19/2014 6/9/2015 9:00:00 AM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b TTIP Negotiations 202 2 If the EU and the US do not officially announce that they have agreed to include a provision on Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) : (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1474-0 0 Will Benjamin Netanyahu **vacate the office of Prime Minister of Israel **before 1 May 2015? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has come under pressure for making unpopular political decisions (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/03/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-cabinet-elections.html). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Benjamin Netanyahu has not **vacated the office of Prime Minister of Israel. closed 12/3/2014 4/30/2015 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2015 4/30/2015 b Netanyahu Vacate Office 148 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1475-0 0 Will the HSBC Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index fall to 50 or below **before 1 June 2015? The PMI index tracks private sector, non-oil companies by monitoring output, orders, prices, and employment; an overall level above 50 indicates private sector expansion, below 50 shows contraction (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d1907a40-6420-11e4-bac8-00144feabdc0.html). Outcome will be determined by data provided from HSBC Saudi Arabia in the monthly press release published at http://www.hsbc.com/news-and-insight/emerging-markets-pmi?c={73A3C67F-A971-4CAC-B9B1-F10D6BEECF09}. Unless the PMI falls to 50 or below prior to May 2015, the question will remain open until the press release with the May 2015 data is published, which should be the first few days in June. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the HSBC Saudi Arabia Purchasing Managers' Index has not fallen to 50 or below. closed 12/3/2014 6/3/2015 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2015 6/3/2015 b Saudi private sector 182 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1476-0 0 **Before 1 May 2015, will Standard & Poor's downgrade Russia's foreign currency credit rating to BB+ or below? In April 2014, major credit rating agencies downgraded Russia's foreign currency credit rating, leaving the country's bonds at BBB-, the lowest investment grade according to Standard & Poor's (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-24/russia-credit-rating-kept-above-junk-by-s-p-on-reserves.html, http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/definitions-and-faqs/en/us). Outcome will be determined by Standard and Poor's (e.g., http://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/ratings/press-releases) or credible open source media reporting of S&P data (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Standard & Poor's has not downgraded Russia's foreign currency credit rating to BB+ or below. closed 12/3/2014 1/26/2015 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2015 1/26/2015 a Russia credit rating 54 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1477-0 0 **Before 10 June 2015, will the IMF **officially announce that the Chinese renminbi will be added to its Special Drawing Rights (SDR)? The IMF's Special Drawing Rights, an international reserve asset currently valued based on a basket of four key international currencies, will be up for review in 2015 (http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/facts/sdr.htm, http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/29/china-summit-reserves-reuters-summit-idUSL4N0SO3VK20141029). The inclusion of the renminbi does not need to take effect for a "yes" resolution. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reports (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the IMF has not **officially announced that the Chinese renminbi will be added to its Special Drawing Rights. closed 12/3/2014 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b IMF adding renminbi to SDR 188 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1478-0 0 Will China allow any members of the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee to enter Hong Kong **before 1 March 2015? China has banned members of the British Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee from entering Hong Kong (http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-30275320, http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/article/1657348/british-mps-barred-hong-kong-stop-oil-being-poured-over-fire-says). The question will resolve as "yes" based either on news that China will allow such a visit, or news of committee members actually entering Hong Kong. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: China has not allowed any member of the UK Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee to enter Hong Kong. closed 12/10/2014 2/28/2015 9:00:00 AM 2/28/2015 2/28/2015 b China refuse UK lawmakers 80 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1480-0 0 Will Russia **officially withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty **before 10 June 2015? The United States accused Russia of violating the INF, a 1987 agreement between the US and the USSR, in July 2014 (http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/world/europe/us-says-russia-tested-cruise-missile-in-violation-of-treaty.html, http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/INFtreaty). The question will resolve as "yes" based either on news that Russia has **officially announced its plans to withdraw, or news of Russia's actual withdrawal from the treaty. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Russia has not **officially withdrawn from the INF Treaty. closed 12/10/2014 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Russia INF Treaty 181 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1482-0 0 Will Jordan experience an episode of **significant domestic political unrest **between 10 December 2014 and 1 June 2015? This is a "fuzzy set" question. For more information on fuzzy set questions, see https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq0.html. For specific information on what constitutes an episode of **significant domestic political unrest, please visit: https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq1.html. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Jordan has not experienced an episode of **significant domestic political unrest during the question's open period. closed 12/10/2014 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 6/1/2015 b Fuzzy Set 1 - Jordan 173 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1483-0 0 Will the Syriza party be in the majority governing coalition in Greece's Parliament after the 25 January 2015 general **elections? The Syriza party is against austerity measures, a policy position which, if the party becomes part of the governing coalition, could imperil Greece's bailout funding (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30623421, http://www.wsj.com/articles/greek-opposition-party-syrizas-lead-narrows-polls-show-1420366766, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b94dcf2a-9475-11e4-82c7-00144feabdc0.html). If a new governing coalition is not formed before 10 June 2015, the question will close as "no." Changes in the Syriza party's name or composition are irrelevant, so long as it does not disband. If the election is delayed indefinitely or cancelled, or in other cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator reserves the right to consult outside experts about how to proceed and/or void the question. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: The Syriza party is not in the majority governing coalition in Greece's Parliament. closed 1/7/2015 1/25/2015 9:00:00 AM 6/9/2015 1/25/2015 a Greek Parliament 18 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1484-0 0 Will the International Monetary Fund's April 2015 World Economic Outlook report show that the annual percent change in world economic output for 2014 was less than 3.3%? A poll of international investors showed that 38% of those surveyed see the global economy as worsening (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-13/world-outlook-darkening-as-89-in-poll-see-europe-deflation-risk.html). The question will be resolved based on information provided in the first row of Table A1 of the International Monetary Fund's first World Economic Outlook (WEO) report published in 2015. WEO is routinely published in April and October of each year, and the April version includes estimates of annual change in output (year-over-year) for the preceding year. The October 2014 report can be seen here: http://www.imf.org/external/Pubs/ft/weo/2014/02/pdf/text.pdf. Table A1 of that report projected the annual percent change in world economic output for 2014 would be 3.3 percent. closed 1/7/2015 4/13/2015 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2015 4/13/2015 b IMF Global Growth Figure 96 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1486-0 0 Will Cuba experience an episode of **significant domestic political unrest **between 7 January and 1 June 2015? This is a "fuzzy set" question. For more information on fuzzy set questions, see https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq0.html. For specific information on what constitutes an episode of **significant domestic political unrest, please visit: https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq1.html. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Cuba has not experienced an episode of **significant domestic political unrest during the question's open period. closed 1/7/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 6/1/2015 b Fuzzy Set 1 - Cuba 145 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1487-0 0 Will there be a **lethal confrontation between **national military forces in the East China Sea **before 10 June 2015? In mid-December, two Chinese naval vessels were reported to have come within 44 miles of the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands, the closest approach since the dispute erupted in 2012 (http://sinosphere.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/01/01/china-japan-dispute-over-islands-spreads-to-cyberspace/?_r=0). For more information on the East China Sea, as well as a map of disputed territories, see: http://www.cfr.org/Asia-and-pacific/chinas-maritime-disputes/p31345. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been a **lethal confrontation between **national military forces in the East China Sea. closed 1/7/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b East China Sea confrontation 153 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1490-0 0 **Before 1 June 2015, will the People's Bank of China reach a bilateral currency swap **agreement with the United States Federal Reserve? The People's Bank of China has negotiated around 25 bilateral currency swap agreements with central banks around the world, making it easier for the partners to conduct cross-border trade and direct investment in renminbi (http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/10/10/qa-whats-a-currency-swap-line/, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d79001d8-10b8-11e4-812b-00144feabdc0.html, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-13/russia-china-sign-currency-swap-agreement-to-double-100b-trade.html). The time frame of the swaps in such agreements is irrelevant (e.g., both temporary liquidity swap lines and long term swap lines would count); however, interest rate swaps would not qualify. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the People's Bank of China has not reached a bilateral currency swap **agreement with the United States Federal Reserve. closed 1/14/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b PBC-Fed Currency Swap 137 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1494-0 0 Will there be an **attack carried out by Islamist militants in France, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy **between 21 January and 31 March 2015? The attack on the French newspaper Charlie Hebdo has set France on edge at a time when Islamist militant activity has become a central concern of security officials across Europe (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30710883; http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/11/us-france-shooting-idUSKBN0KK05S20150111). Individual acts of violence perpetrated by non-state actors (e.g., the use of explosive devices, projectiles, or knives) would count. Attribution and outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator reserves the right to consult outside experts about how to proceed and/or void the question. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been an **attack carried out by Islamist militants in France, the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy during the question's open period. closed 1/21/2015 2/2/2015 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2015 2/2/2015 a Attack in Europe 12 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1496-0 0 Will South Korean President Park Geun-hye or any South Korean *cabinet minister meet with **official North Korean representatives **before 1 April 2015? South Korean Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae has continued to push for high-level talks between the North and South; in Kim Jong-Un's New Years' address, he expressed an openness to a high-level dialogue (http://www.newsweek.com/are-north-and-south-korea-heading-talks-298897, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30621112). *South Korean cabinet ministers are listed here: http://www.korea.net/Government/Administration/Cabinet. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Neither President Park nor any South Korean *cabinet minister has met with **official North Korean representatives during the question's open period. closed 1/21/2015 3/31/2015 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2015 3/31/2015 b North Korea South Korea talks 69 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1497-0 0 Will Iran experience an episode of **significant domestic political unrest **between 21 January and 1 June 2015? This is a "fuzzy set" question. For more information on fuzzy set questions, see https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq0.html. For specific information on what constitutes an episode of **significant domestic political unrest, please visit: https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq1.html. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Iran has not experienced an episode of **significant domestic political unrest during the question's open period. closed 1/21/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 6/1/2015 b Fuzzy Set 1 - Iran 131 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1498-0 0 Will the Conservative party hold more seats than any other party in the UK House of Commons after the 7 May 2015 **elections? The British general elections are scheduled for 7 May 2015 (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/dec/27/2015-general-election-unpredictable-green-party-ukip). The question will resolve when official election results are definitively reported in open source media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the election is delayed indefinitely or cancelled, or in other cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator reserves the right to consult outside experts about how to proceed and/or void the question. closed 1/21/2015 5/7/2015 9:00:00 AM 5/7/2015 5/7/2015 a British Elections 106 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1499-0 0 Will a unity government be formed in Libya **before 1 June 2015? U.N.-sponsored talks between rival Libyan factions aim to form a unity government (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/19/world/middleeast/libya-militias-agree-to-halt-in-fighting-with-caveats.html). The specific composition of the unity government will not affect the outcome of this question. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: a unity government has not been formed in Libya. closed 1/21/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Libya Unity Government 130 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1501-0 0 Will Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu speak before the U.S. Congress **before 15 March 2015? There has been international and U.S. domestic scrutiny of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's proposed address before the U.S. Congress weeks before an upcoming Israeli election (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/30/us/politics/benjamin-netanyahu-is-talking-to-harry-reid-and-leading-democrats-to-little-effect-so-far.html, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/25/us-israel-usa-iran-idUSKBN0KY0GR20150125). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has not spoken before the U.S. Congress during the question's open period. closed 2/4/2015 3/2/2015 9:00:00 AM 3/14/2015 3/2/2015 a Netanyahu Speaks to Congress 26 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1502-0 0 **Before 1 April 2015, will there be a **lethal confrontation between Saudi **national military forces and Yemen's Houthis? The recent upheaval in Yemen has intensified Saudi Arabian concerns about its neighbor's destabilization (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/26/us-saudi-succession-yemen-idUSKBN0KZ0TF20150126, http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/policy-budget/leaders/2015/01/25/united-arab-emirates-yemen-defense/22215363/). Cross-border confrontations will count if the threshold for a **lethal confrontation is met, including those inadvertently involved (e.g., civilians). For the purposes of this question, **national military forces include law enforcement forces and/or border guards. A **lethal confrontation involving a multinational force that includes Saudi **national military forces will count. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been a **lethal confrontation between Saudi Arabian **national military forces and Yemen's Houthis. closed 2/4/2015 3/24/2015 9:00:00 AM 3/31/2015 3/24/2015 a Saudi/Yemen Conflict 48 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1504-0 0 **Before 10 June 2015, will it be **officially announced that any country is exiting the eurozone or the European Union? Contentious domestic politics and growing financial crises could lead to the exit of countries from the eurozone or the EU itself (http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30680415, http://www.wsj.com/articles/europe-file-eurozone-may-not-blink-first-in-confrontation-with-greece-1422488136). The exit does not need to take effect to resolve the question. **Official announcements from any EU member state or any EU governing body will suffice. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: it has not been **officially announced that any country is exiting the eurozone or the EU. closed 2/4/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Any Country Exit Eurozone 125 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1505-0 0 Will Ethiopia experience an episode of **sustained domestic armed conflict **between 4 February and 1 June 2015? This is a "fuzzy set" question. For more information on fuzzy set questions see https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq0.html. For specific information on what constitutes an episode of **sustained domestic armed conflict, please visit: https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq2.html. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Ethiopia has not experienced an episode of "sustained domestic armed conflict." closed 2/4/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 6/1/2015 b Ethiopia Domestic Conflict 117 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1506-0 0 Will the HSBC China Services Purchasing Managers' Index fall to 50.0 or below **before 1 June 2015? China's service sector grew at its slowest pace in six months in January 2015, according to HSBC's Services Purchasing Managers' Index, but remained above the 50-point level that separates growth from contraction (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/04/us-china-economy-pmi-services-idUSKBN0L804820150204). Outcome will be determined by data provided from HSBC in the monthly PMI Services report published at http://www.hsbc.com/news-and-insight/emerging-markets-pmi?c={7E2AC5F4-BDDE-41DF-8B66-7A860553FF5A}. Unless the China Services PMI falls to 50.0 or below prior to May 2015, the question will remain open until the press release with the May 2015 data is published, which should be the first few days in June. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the HSBC China Services Purchasing Managers' Index has not fallen to 50.0 or below during the question's open period. closed 2/11/2015 6/3/2015 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2015 6/3/2015 b China Services PMI 112 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1507-0 0 Will the end-of-day close for the euro-dollar exchange rate fall to $1.10 or below **between 11 February and 1 May 2015? The euro-dollar exchange rate has recently hit an eleven-year low (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-22/euro-falls-toward-11-year-low-as-ecb-expands-bond-buying-program.html). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg, at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/eurusd:cur. In case of delayed reporting or problems with the Bloomberg website, reporting by other credible open sources may be used. closed 2/11/2015 3/6/2015 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2015 3/6/2015 a Dollar-Euro 23 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1508-0 0 Will China conduct naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean beyond the *first island chain **before 1 June 2015? China has been seeking to modernize its navy and develop its ability to project naval power into distant waters (http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/7848ddfc-9396-11e3-8ea7-00144feab7de.html). The *first island chain encloses the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea, and the South China Sea. A map can be found on page 40 of this document: http://www.defense.gov/pubs/pdfs/2012_CMPR_Final.pdf. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: China has not conducted naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean beyond the *first island chain during the question's open period. closed 2/11/2015 2/16/2015 9:00:00 AM 5/31/2015 2/16/2015 a China Blue Water Exercises 5 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1509-0 0 Will the state of emergency in the Sinai be lifted on or before 25 April 2015? Egypt imposed a state of emergency in the Sinai in October 2014 as a response to militants targeting army and police personnel; in January 2015 it was extended for an additional three months (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/25/egypt-declares-state-of-emergency-in-sinai-after-checkpoint-bombing, http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2015/01/27/north-sinai-political-civil-groups-demand-lift-curfew-hours/, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/30/us-egypt-violence-sinai-idUSKBN0L22J920150130). If the state of emergency is allowed to expire as scheduled on 25 April, it would count for a "yes" resolution. A partial lifting of the state of emergency would not suffice. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the state of emergency in the Sinai has not been lifted. closed 2/11/2015 4/25/2015 9:00:00 AM 4/24/2015 4/25/2015 b Sinai State of Emergency 73 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1510-0 0 Will Russia experience an episode of **significant domestic political unrest **between 11 February and 1 June 2015? This is a "fuzzy set" question. For more information on fuzzy set questions, see https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq0.html. For specific information on what constitutes an episode of **significant domestic political unrest, please visit: https://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/clarifications/fsq1.html. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Russia has not experienced an episode of **significant domestic political unrest during the question's open period. voided 2/11/2015 NULL 5/31/2015 NA Fuzzy Set 1 - Russia NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1512-0 0 Will North Korea and Russia conduct joint military exercises **before 10 June 2015? North Korea and Russia have announced a plan to conduct a series of joint army, navy and air force exercises as a sign of deepening ties between the two nations (http://www.dw.de/north-korea-builds-closer-ties-with-fellow-outcast-russia/a-18231690). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: North Korea and Russia have not conducted any joint military exercises during the question's open period. closed 2/18/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b NK-Russia Military Exercises 111 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1513-0 0 Will Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner **vacate the office of President of Argentina **before 1 June 2015? President Kirchner is at the center of a high-profile criminal case about the cover-up of responsibility for the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/14/world/americas/argentine-prosecutor-moves-to-charge-cristina-fernandez-de-kirchner.html, http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/argentine-president-set-to-leave-office-and-a-divided-nation/article22886073/). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner has not **vacated the office of President of Argentina during the question's open period. closed 2/18/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Kirchner Vacate Office 102 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1514-0 0 Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud **before 1 June 2015? Iran and Saudi Arabia have had a fractious relationship; there is internal debate in both countries about whether or not to pursue a rapprochement (http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-01-23/new-saudi-king-s-biggest-challenge-iran, http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2015/01/25/394644/Iran-calls-for-expansion-of-Saudi-ties). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following "status quo" outcome: Iran's President Hassan Rouhani has not met Saudi Arabia's King Salman. closed 2/18/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Saudi Arabia - Iran Meeting 102 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1515-0 0 **Before 1 June 2015, will SWIFT restrict any Russian banks from accessing its services? The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) is a system that plays a key role in international financial transactions; some policymakers are proposing that banning Russia from SWIFT should be one element of a new sanctions regime (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/01/28/russia-is-hinting-at-a-new-cold-war-over-swift-so-whats-swift/, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/04/us-investment-russia-sanctions-analysis-idUSKBN0L80W720150204). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: SWIFT has not restricted any Russian banks from accessing its services. closed 2/18/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Russia on the SWIFT Exchange 102 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1516-0 0 Will voting in Nigeria's presidential **election begin on 28 March 2015? The election has already been postponed once, from 14 February to 28 March 2015 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/nigeria-to-delay-election-by-six-weeks-1423351833, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/10/nigeria-election-delay-boko-haram). The question will resolve when credible open source media (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) report that voting has begun. Early voting does not count. Voting does not need to be completed for a "yes" resolution. closed 3/4/2015 3/27/2015 9:00:00 AM 3/28/2015 3/27/2015 a Nigeria Elections 23 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1519-0 0 Will Iran purchase an Antey-2500 anti-ballistic missile system from Russia **before 10 June 2015? Russia has offered to sell Iran the powerful air defense system, a deal that could have an impact on the Iran nuclear negotiations (http://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-offers-to-sell-powerful-air-defense-system-to-iran-1424703191, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/23/russia-offers-sell-anti-aircraft-missiles-iran-nuclear-talks). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Iran has not purchased an Antey-2500 anti-ballistic missile system from Russia. closed 3/4/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Iran Russia Weapons Sale 97 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1520-0 0 Will there be a **lethal confrontation between Chinese and Indian **national military forces **before 1 June 2015? For background on potential flashpoints between China and India, see http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/23/world/asia/china-protests-india-leaders-visit-to-disputed-border-area.html, http://thediplomat.com/2015/02/china-boosts-submarine-fleets-for-indian-ocean-allies/, and http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=27. For the purposes of this question, **national military forces include law enforcement forces and/or border guards. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been a **lethal confrontation between Chinese and Indian **national military forces. closed 3/4/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b China India Lethal Confrontation 88 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1524-0 0 Will Tony Abbott **vacate the office of Prime Minister of Australia **before 1 June 2015? Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott narrowly survived a confidence vote after Liberal members of parliament challenged his role as head of the party (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/abbott-leadership-crisis-pm-under-pressure-as-39-vote-for-spill/story-fn59niix-1227212754035, http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbotts-postspill-prime-ministership-can-go-only-one-way-20150209-13a422.html). In the event of an election, Abbott will be considered to have **vacated office only when he has been replaced as Prime Minister. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Tony Abbott has not **vacated the office of Prime Minister of Australia. closed 3/11/2015 5/30/2015 11:59:00 PM 5/31/2015 5/31/2015 b Abbott Vacate Office 81 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1525-0 0 Will Iran release Jason Rezaian **before 10 June 2015? For details of the case involving Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post correspondent being held in Iran, see http://www.washingtonpost.com/pb/stories-jason-rezaian. For a "yes" resolution, Rezaian must be released from custody and have the ability to leave the country. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Iran has not released Jason Rezaian. closed 3/11/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Rezaian Release 90 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1527-0 0 **Between 18 March and 1 May 2015, will the European Commission, the European Central Bank, or the IMF agree to release any bailout funds to Greece? Officials from the so-called "troika" of the EC, the ECB, and the IMF indicated that no additional money will be released from Greece's bailout fund before a full assessment of the Greek economy is complete and reforms are in place (http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/10/business/greece-eurozone-finance-ministers.html, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/11/us-eurozone-greece-idUSKBN0M71JG20150311). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: The EC, ECB, and the IMF have not agreed to release any bailout funds to Greece. closed 3/18/2015 4/30/2015 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2015 4/30/2015 b Greece Bailout 43 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1529-0 0 Will the government of Afghanistan and any faction of Afghanistan's Taliban participate in **official talks **before 10 June 2015? In February 2015, Afghan government officials said they had expected to meet representatives of the Taliban for an initial round of peace talks as early as the first week of March (http://www.wsj.com/articles/afghan-peace-efforts-suffer-setback-officials-say-1426514481). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the government of Afghanistan and the Taliban have not participated in **official talks. closed 3/18/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Taliban Talks 83 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1532-0 0 Will South Korean President Park Geun-hye or any South Korean *cabinet minister meet with **official North Korean representatives **between 1 April and 9 June 2015? South Korea's new Unification Minister has said he will push for "substantive dialogue" with North Korea (http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150311001004, http://www.newsweek.com/are-north-and-south-korea-heading-talks-298897, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-30621112). *South Korean cabinet ministers are listed here: http://www.korea.net/Government/Administration/Cabinet. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Neither President Park nor any South Korean *cabinet minister has met with **official North Korean representatives during the question's open period. closed 4/1/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b North Korea South Korea Talks 69 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1533-0 0 Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff **vacate office or *be impeached **before 10 June 2015? Polling shows that a majority of Brazilians favor President Dilma Rousseff's ouster because of an economic slump and a snowballing corruption scandal (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/23/us-brazil-rousseff-poll-idUSKBN0MJ25L20150323, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/143278/kathryn-hochstetler/democracy-brazil-style). According to the constitution of Brazil, President Rousseff would *be impeached if the Chamber of Deputies authorizes, by a two-thirds vote, legal proceedings to be initiated against her (http://web.mit.edu/12.000/www/m2006/teams/willr3/const.htm). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff has not **vacated office nor *been impeached. closed 4/1/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Rousseff Vacate Office 69 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1535-0 0 Will Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi be *incapacitated **before 10 June 2015? A coalition of countries have joined together to fight Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and his organization (http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2014/11/05/why_can_t_the_pentagon_kill_the_islamic_state_s_top_commanders, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/03/isis-baghdadi-islamic-state-caliph-many-names-al-qaeda.html). al-Baghdadi will be considered *incapacitated if he dies or is captured. News of al-Baghdadi's surrender would count for a "yes" resolution. Whom al-Baghdadi is *incapacitated by (e.g., US forces, the Syrian government, Iraq, al-Nusra) is irrelevant. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has not been *incapacitated. closed 4/1/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Incapacitation of al-Baghdadi 69 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1537-0 0 Will Russia release Eston Kohver **before 10 June 2015? Estonian intelligence agent Eston Kohver was captured just days after President Obama, in Tallinn, promised NATO support for Estonia against foreign aggression (http://rapsinews.com/judicial_news/20150402/273472989.html, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2015/03/forget-eston-kohver-150315112432470.html). For a "yes" resolution, Eston Kohver must be alive, released from custody, and have the ability to leave Russia. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Russia has not released Eston Kohver. closed 4/8/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Russia Release Detained Estonian 62 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1538-0 0 **Before 10 June 2015, will North Korea release either of the South Korean citizens identified as Kim Guk-gi and Choi Chun-gil? North Korea has detained the two South Korean citizens on charges of spying near the North Korean border with China (http://eng.unikorea.go.kr/content.do?cmsid=1834&cid=42575&mode=view, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/27/us-northkorea-southkorea-spies-idUSKBN0MM25720150327, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/27/world/asia/north-korea-claims-to-have-arrested-two-spies-from-south.html). For a "yes" resolution, Kim and/or Choi must be alive, released from custody, and have the ability to leave North Korea. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: North Korea has not released either or both South Korean citizens identified as Kim Guk-gi and Choi Chun-gil. closed 4/8/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b North Korea Release Detained South Korea 62 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1539-0 0 Will the UN Security Council adopt a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan **before 10 June 2015? The United Nations Security Council is considering imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan as fighting in the country continues (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/18/us-southsudan-war-idUSKBN0ME1OR20150318, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-25/un-security-council-condemns-south-sudanese-leaders-war-tactics, http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2015/jan/09/obama-urged-un-resolution-ban-arms-sales-south-sudan). Either a mandatory or a non-mandatory arms embargo would count. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP), **official announcements, or the UN website (http://www.un.org/en/sc/documents/resolutions/). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: The UN Security Council has not adopted a resolution imposing an arms embargo on South Sudan. closed 4/15/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b UN Arms Embargo on South Sudan 55 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1540-0 0 **Before 10 June 2015, will Ukraine **officially announce that it will hold a referendum on the structure of its government? The Minsk ceasefire accord reached in February 2015 called for the adoption of a new Ukrainian constitution by the end of 2015, including the decentralization of power; President Poroshenko raised the issue of a referendum on federalization at his first meeting with a new constitutional reform committee (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/06/poroshenko-endorses-referendum-on-federalisation-of-ukraine, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32194096). The referendum does not need to be held before 10 June 2015 for a "yes" resolution. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Ukraine has not **officially announced that it will hold a referendum on the structure of its government. closed 4/15/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Ukraine Referendum 55 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1541-0 0 Will there be a **lethal confrontation involving the **national military forces of one or more countries in the Gulf of Aden **between 29 April and 10 June 2015? Convoys of ships have been sent to the Gulf of Aden in response to the deteriorating security situation in Yemen (http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-calls-for-yemen-cease-fire/2728383.html, http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/25/world/middleeast/american-naval-force-off-yemen-gets-credit-after-iranian-convoy-turns-away.html). **Any three fatalities resulting from the confrontation would count, including **national military forces or non-state actors directly involved, as well as others indirectly involved (e.g., civilians). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: there has not been a **lethal confrontation involving the **national military forces of one or more countries in the Gulf of Aden. closed 4/29/2015 6/9/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/10/2015 6/10/2015 b Lethal Confrontation in the Gulf of Aden 42 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1542-0 0 Will Japan's Nikkei 225 Index close at or above 21,000.00 **between 29 April and 10 June 2015? The Nikkei 225 Stock Average closed above 20,000 in late April for the first time since the year 2000 (http://www.wsj.com/articles/nikkei-stock-average-closes-over-20000-1429671414?tesla=y, http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21649554-japanese-are-learning-stockmarket-can-go-up-well-down-winged, http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/762b3682-e8c2-11e4-87fe-00144feab7de.html). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing value reported by Bloomberg, at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/nky:ind. For historical trends, see http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/nky:ind/chart. In case of delayed reporting or problems with the Bloomberg website, reporting by other credible open sources may be used. closed 4/29/2015 6/9/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/10/2015 6/10/2015 b Nikkei Index 42 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1543-0 0 Will Syria's President Bashar al-Assad *vacate office **before 10 June 2015? Some experts indicate that President Assad's regime may be weakening under the strain of Syria's four-year old civil war (http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/assads-regime-at-increasing-risk-amid-a-surge-of-rebel-advances/2015/04/26/c2742e22-ec32-11e4-8050-839e9234b303_story.html). al-Assad will be deemed to have *vacated his office if he has 1) died; 2) resigned his office; 3) been stripped of his office and/or replaced by formal government, judicial, or electorate action; 4) fled the country, gone into exile, or disappeared entirely from public view such that it is unclear whether he is alive or residing within the nation he governs; or 5) been deemed in a prolonged state of mental incapacitation. In the first three situations, the question will close immediately; for options 4 and 5, Administrator will observe a three-week waiting period beginning when the circumstance is first reported in the media. If 10 June 2015 falls within the 3-week waiting period for options 4 or 5, the question will close as "yes" due to the tournament's end. <b>*This procedure is unique to this question and supersedes that outlined on the GJP Standard Definitions page.</b> Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Syria's President Bashar al-Assad has not *vacated office. closed 4/29/2015 6/8/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Assad Vacate Office 41 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+1544-0 0 Will the closing spot price of gold fall to $1,150.00 or below **between 29 April and 10 June 2015? Gold prices have been under pressure this year on expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to increase interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade (http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/27/markets-precious-idUSL4N0XO3JE20150427, http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/28/markets-precious-idUSL4N0XP1I220150428). Outcome will be determined by the end-of-day closing spot price for gold in U.S. dollars according to Bloomberg, at http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/xauusd:cur. In case of delayed reporting or problems with the Bloomberg website, reporting by other credible open sources may be used. closed 4/29/2015 6/9/2015 11:59:00 PM 6/10/2015 6/10/2015 b Gold Spot Price 42 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5001-0 0 Will Ecuador grant Edward Snowden's request for asylum prior to 31 July 2013? To be scored as "yes," Ecuador must officially and publicly announced (e.g., press release, press conference, other official communication) that the country is granting Snowden's asylum request. Outcome will be resolved based on reporting by BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online. If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., Ecuador has not granted Snowden's asylum request).
In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. "Prior to" should be interpreted to mean at any point before 12 midnight ET) on 31 July 2013. closed 7/9/2013 7/31/2013 7/30/2013 7/31/2013 b Snowden Asylum 22 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5003-0 0 Will Chinese armed forces or maritime law enforcement forces attempt to interdict at least one U.S. government naval vessel or airplane that it claims is in its territorial waters or airspace before 31 July 2013? Armed forces refers to official military units in control of a national government. Maritime law enforcement forces refers to Coast Guard or other nationally directed vessels, with armaments, outside the context of the official armed forces. "U.S. naval vessel or airplane" refers to a ship or plane that is the official property of the U.S. government, e.g. part of the U.S. armed forces or other U.S. government agency.
Outcome will be resolved based on reporting from one or more of the following sources: BBC News or Reuters or Economist Online (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/ or http://www.reuters.com/ or http://www.economist.com). If nothing is reported in these sources, then the 'status quo' outcome typically will be assumed (i.e., for a question about a political leader leaving office, an absence of reporting will be taken to indicate that the leader remains in office). Administrator reserves the right to use other sources as needed (e.g., CIA World Factbook, Wikipedia), provided those sources do not directly contradict concurrent event reporting from BBC News, Reuters, or Economist Online.
In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty, Administrator may refer the question to outside subject matter experts, or we may deem the question invalid/void. Before should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. closed 7/9/2013 7/30/2013 7/30/2013 7/30/2013 b Chinese Interdiction 21 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5007-0 0 Will US nonfarm payroll employment increase by more than 175,000 workers in July 2013 compared to June 2013? Outcome will be determined by reporting at http://www.bls.gov/ces/#news. News release for July 2013 figures is scheduled for 2 August. closed 7/9/2013 7/31/2013 7/31/2013 7/31/2013 b US Employment 22 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5008-0 0 Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl XLVIII? (Just for fun question -- not included in official scoring) Outcome will be resolved using open sources. closed 2/1/2014 2/2/2014 3:30:00 PM 2/2/2014 2/2/2014 b Super Bowl XLVIII 1 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5009-0 0 Super Bowl XLVIII: Will the margin of victory exceed 3 points? (Just for fun question -- not included in official scoring) Outcome will be based on open sources. closed 2/1/2014 2/2/2014 3:30:00 PM 2/2/2014 2/2/2014 a Super Bowl XLVIII Margin 1 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5102-0 0 Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan win Turkey's 2014 presidential **election? Turkey's presidential election is scheduled for 10 August 2014. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Recep Tayyip Erdogan has not won Turkey's 2014 presidential election. For terms with ** or other questions, see http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/std_def.html and http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/faq.html voided 7/28/2014 NULL 8/20/2014 NA Turkey Presidential Election NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5103-0 0 Will Apple **officially announce the first U.S. release date for iPhone 6 **before 20 August 2014? The iPhone 6 does not have to be available for sale in stores for a "yes" resolution. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Apple has not officially announced the first U.S. release date for iPhone 6. For terms with ** or other questions, see http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/std_def.html and http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/faq.html voided 7/28/2014 NULL 8/20/2014 NA iPhone 6 Release NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5104-0 0 **Before 20 August 2014, will 21st Century Fox purchase a majority share in Time Warner? Shares of Time Warner surged after news that 21st Century Fox offered to purchase the media company, and the group may be preparing another bid (http://qz.com/236323/its-clear-that-rupert-murdochs-pursuit-of-time-warner-is-only-just-beginning/). Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: 21st Century Fox has not purchased a majority share in Time Warner. For terms with ** or other questions, see http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/std_def.html and http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/faq.html voided 7/28/2014 NULL 8/20/2014 NA 21st Century Fox Buys Time Warner NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5105-0 0 Will it be **officially announced that Kate Middleton is pregnant with her second child **by 20 August 2014? Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. Any announcements made before the question was launched will not count. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: There has not been an official announcement of Kate Middleton being pregnant with her second child. For terms with ** or other questions, see http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/std_def.html and http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/faq.html voided 7/28/2014 NULL 8/20/2014 NA Middleton Pregnancy NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5106-0 0 Will Tian Tian, the Giant Panda, give birth **before 20 August 2014? Tian Tian is the giant panda currently residing in the Edinburgh Zoo in Edinburgh, Scotland (http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/08/giant-panda-tian-tian-conceived-edinburgh-zoo-confirms). Tian Tian can be observed on the Panda Cam, available here: http://www.edinburghzoo.org.uk/webcams/panda-cam/?camID=2457. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Tian Tian has not given birth yet. For terms with ** or other questions, see http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/std_def.html and http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/faq.html voided 7/28/2014 NULL 8/20/2014 NA Panda Tian Tian Birth NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5108-0 0 Will the Dow Jones Industrial Average daily closing value exceed 17,000 on 18 August 2014? Outcome will be determined based on reporting from CNN Money at http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ on 19 August 2014 under "Previous Close". For terms with ** or other questions, see http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/std_def.html and http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/faq.html. voided 7/28/2014 NULL 8/19/2014 NA Dow Jones Closing Value NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+5109-0 0 Will Malaysia Airlines *officially file for bankruptcy on or **before 20 August 2014? Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) or **official announcements. If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: Malaysia Airlines have not officially filed for bankruptcy. For terms with ** or other questions, see http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/std_def.html and http://www.goodjudgmentproject.com/forecasting/faq.html voided 7/28/2014 NULL 8/20/2014 NA Malaysia Airlines Bankruptcy NA 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+6379-0 0 Will Yingluck Shinawatra vacate the office of Prime Minister of Thailand before 1 May 2014? Yingluck Shinawatra will be considered to not have vacated as of this date and time, unless one of the following occurs prior to the deadline (note that each circumstance has qualifications): (1) Leader has died; (2) Leader offers oral or written resignation of office that has taken effect; (3) Leader is stripped of her office and/or replaced with another person (e.g., interim replacement installed in Leader's position) via formal government or electorate action (e.g., parliamentary measure, referendum); (4) Leader is reported to have left the capital in a manner characterized as fleeing the capital, being driven from the capital, or going into exile; (5) Leader has disappeared from public view, such that it is unclear whether she is alive or whether she is residing within the nation she governs; (6) Leader is deemed to be in a prolonged or permanent state of mental incapacitation (e.g., coma, vegetative state), and that incapacitation lasts for at least 21 days. For (1), the question can be closed and resolved immediately. For (2)-(3), the question will be closed only when the leader vacates office/power is transferred. For (4) through (6), Administrator will typically observe a three-week waiting period between the event's occurrence (e.g., date leader is reported as going into exile) and the question's resolution. If this or one of the other circumstances (4)-(6) still holds at the end of this period, the question will retroactively be closed when the circumstance was first reported in the media. Forecasting problem outcomes will be determined by the Administrator using credible open sources, such as Reuters, BBC, Associated Press, or question-specific sources (e.g., Freedom House). Administrator reserves judgment as to which sources are deemed credible. If nothing is reported in a credible open source, then the "status quo" outcome (i.e., Yingluck Shinawatra has not vacated the office of Prime Minister) typically will be assumed. In cases of substantial controversy or uncertainty about an outcome or the credibility of a source, Administrator may take various steps, such as referring the question to outside subject matter experts or declaring the question invalid/void. "Before" should be interpreted to mean at or prior to the end (23:59:59 ET) of the previous day. For example, "before 10 Oct" means any time up to 23:59:59 ET on 9 Oct. closed 3/12/2014 4/30/2014 9:00:00 AM 4/30/2014 4/30/2014 b Thailand: Shinawatra leaves office 49 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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+6413-0 0 Will the Kurdistan Regional Government *hold a referendum on national independence <b>**before 10 June 2015</b>? Amidst a backdrop of violence in Iraq, Kurdish leader Masud Barzani has discussed plans for holding an independence referendum in the region ( http://www.vox.com/2014/8/12/5991425/kurds-iraq-kurdistan-peshmerga, http://www.rferl.org/content/iraq-kurds-independence-talk-power-play/25459559.html ). *The question will resolve as "yes" when credible open source media report that voting in a referendum has begun. A referendum held in the city of Kirkuk, outside the Kurdish region, would not count for the purposes of this question. Outcome will be determined by credible open source media reporting (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP). If the resolution criteria are not met, GJP will assume the following as the "status quo" outcome: the Kurdistan Regional Government has not held a referendum on national independence. closed 10/17/2014 6/9/2015 9:00:00 AM 6/9/2015 6/9/2015 b Kurdistan Referendum 235 2 (a) Yes, (b) No
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