\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Effect of each variable on (a) the probability of having entered a new research area and (b) the probability of having exited a research area, for each model. The reference model uses entropy as the diversity measure $D$ and the magnitude of intellectual capital as a measure of power $P$. Values indicate the mean posterior effect size and the 95\% credible interval. Significant effects are shown in bold.}
\label{table:summary_entered_exited}
\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{2}\fontsize{6}{7}\selectfont\begin{tabular}{lllllll}
\toprule
Dep. variable & \multicolumn{3}{c}{Entered a new research area} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{Exited a research area} \\
Model & Reference & $D=\text{Stirling}$ & $P=\text{Brokerage}$ & Reference & $D=\text{Stirling}$ & $P=\text{Brokerage}$ \\
Predictor &  &  &  &  &  &  \\
\midrule
\textbf{Intellectual capital (diversity)} & $\bm{+0.15}\substack{+0.11 \\ -0.11}$ & $\bm{+0.14}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{+0.12}\substack{+0.11 \\ -0.11}$ & $\bm{+1.1}\substack{+0.14 \\ -0.14}$ & $\bm{+0.88}\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.12}$ & $\bm{+1}\substack{+0.14 \\ -0.13}$ \\
\textbf{Social capital (diversity)} & $\bm{+0.2}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{+0.16}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{+0.18}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.06\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.02\substack{+0.11 \\ -0.11}$ \\
\textbf{Social capital (power)} & $\bm{-0.12}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{-0.11}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $-0.06\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{-0.27}\substack{+0.11 \\ -0.11}$ & $\bm{-0.22}\substack{+0.11 \\ -0.11}$ & $\bm{-0.16}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ \\
\textbf{Stable affiliation} & $-0.15\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.22}$ & $-0.14\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.22}$ & $-0.14\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.22}$ & $+0.07\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.1\substack{+0.24 \\ -0.24}$ & $+0.09\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ \\
\textbf{Academic age} & $+0.009\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.004\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{-0.2}\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.12}$ & $\bm{-0.2}\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.12}$ & $\bm{-0.25}\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.12}$ \\
\hline Hadrons & $-0.12\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.36}$ & $-0.21\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.39}$ & $-0.13\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.36}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $-0.27\substack{+0.39 \\ -0.45}$ & $-0.05\substack{+0.25 \\ -0.3}$ \\
String theory \& supergravity & $\bm{+0.44}\substack{+0.34 \\ -0.32}$ & $\bm{+0.53}\substack{+0.36 \\ -0.35}$ & $\bm{+0.36}\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.31}$ & $\bm{+0.43}\substack{+0.36 \\ -0.35}$ & $\bm{+0.89}\substack{+0.42 \\ -0.42}$ & $+0.23\substack{+0.35 \\ -0.25}$ \\
Perturbative methods & $+0.05\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.03\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.06\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $-0.13\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.46}$ & $-0.35\substack{+0.48 \\ -0.57}$ & $-0.1\substack{+0.29 \\ -0.43}$ \\
Classical fields & $+0.26\substack{+1.3 \\ -0.65}$ & $+0.39\substack{+1.5 \\ -0.75}$ & $+0.26\substack{+1.2 \\ -0.62}$ & $-0.4\substack{+0.61 \\ -1.5}$ & $-0.5\substack{+0.83 \\ -1.3}$ & $-0.26\substack{+0.47 \\ -1.3}$ \\
Collider physics & $\bm{-0.35}\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.35}$ & $\bm{-0.52}\substack{+0.34 \\ -0.35}$ & $\bm{-0.37}\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.35}$ & $+0.08\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.18\substack{+0.35 \\ -0.41}$ & $+0.05\substack{+0.28 \\ -0.22}$ \\
Dynamics & $-0.18\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.86}$ & $-0.18\substack{+0.65 \\ -0.88}$ & $-0.16\substack{+0.59 \\ -0.84}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.7}$ & $+0.14\substack{+1.1 \\ -0.86}$ & $-0.009\substack{+0.5 \\ -0.5}$ \\
Neutrinos \& flavour physics & $+0.14\substack{+0.37 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.1\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.11\substack{+0.34 \\ -0.29}$ & $-0.18\substack{+0.27 \\ -0.35}$ & $-0.33\substack{+0.38 \\ -0.44}$ & $-0.22\substack{+0.26 \\ -0.36}$ \\
Black holes & $-0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.005\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $-0.08\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.13\substack{+0.46 \\ -0.31}$ & $\bm{+0.73}\substack{+0.59 \\ -0.56}$ & $+0.08\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ \\
Gauge theory \& Grand Unification & $+0.003\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.6}$ & $+0.008\substack{+0.7 \\ -0.6}$ & $+0.02\substack{+0.63 \\ -0.58}$ & $-0.1\substack{+0.49 \\ -0.73}$ & $-0.11\substack{+0.78 \\ -0.86}$ & $-0.06\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.6}$ \\
Dark matter & $\bm{-0.65}\substack{+0.55 \\ -0.56}$ & $\bm{-0.71}\substack{+0.56 \\ -0.56}$ & $\bm{-0.64}\substack{+0.55 \\ -0.56}$ & $+0.001\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $-0.04\substack{+0.5 \\ -0.5}$ & $-0.001\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ \\
Thermodynamics & $-0.06\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.6}$ & $-0.04\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.6}$ & $-0.05\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.6}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.7 \\ -0.6}$ & $+0.33\substack{+1.3 \\ -0.76}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.5}$ \\
Cosmology & $+0.003\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.06\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $-0.003\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.15\substack{+0.49 \\ -0.32}$ & $\bm{+0.56}\substack{+0.61 \\ -0.55}$ & $+0.1\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ \\
Electroweak sector & $+0.1\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.28}$ & $+0.06\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.12\substack{+0.35 \\ -0.29}$ & $+0.03\substack{+0.29 \\ -0.25}$ & $-0.05\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ \\
QCD & $-0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $-0.12\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.38}$ & $-0.06\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.05\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.05\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ \\
Quantum Field Theory & $+0.3\substack{+0.61 \\ -0.43}$ & $+0.41\substack{+0.65 \\ -0.49}$ & $+0.31\substack{+0.61 \\ -0.42}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.23\substack{+0.61 \\ -0.48}$ & $-0.01\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ \\
AdS/CFT & $+0.17\substack{+0.66 \\ -0.46}$ & $+0.26\substack{+0.73 \\ -0.5}$ & $+0.17\substack{+0.65 \\ -0.45}$ & $-0.07\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.5}$ & $+0.18\substack{+0.73 \\ -0.56}$ & $-0.05\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.5}$ \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}\normalsize\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{1}
\end{table}
