\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Effect of each variable on (a) the change score and (b) the disruption score for each model. The reference model uses entropy as the diversity measure $D$ and the magnitude of intellectual capital as a measure of power $P$. Values indicate the mean posterior effect size and the 95\% credible interval. Significant effects are shown in bold.}
\label{table:summary_change_disruption}
\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{2}\fontsize{6}{7}\selectfont\begin{tabular}{lllllll}
\toprule
Dep. variable & \multicolumn{3}{c}{Change score ($c_a$)} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{Disruption score ($d_a$)} \\
Model & Reference & $D=\text{Stirling}$ & $P=\text{Brokerage}$ & Reference & $D=\text{Stirling}$ & $P=\text{Brokerage}$ \\
Predictor &  &  &  &  &  &  \\
\midrule
\textbf{Intellectual capital (diversity)} & $\bm{+0.29}\substack{+0.043 \\ -0.044}$ & $\bm{+0.29}\substack{+0.041 \\ -0.041}$ & $\bm{+0.24}\substack{+0.043 \\ -0.044}$ & $\bm{+0.05}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ & $\bm{+1.2}\substack{+0.47 \\ -0.47}$ & $\bm{+0.05}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ \\
\textbf{Social capital (diversity)} & $\bm{+0.09}\substack{+0.041 \\ -0.041}$ & $\bm{+0.07}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ & $\bm{+0.06}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ & $\bm{+0.28}\substack{+0.045 \\ -0.044}$ & $\bm{+0.85}\substack{+0.47 \\ -0.47}$ & $\bm{+0.23}\substack{+0.043 \\ -0.043}$ \\
\textbf{Social capital (power)} & $\bm{-0.19}\substack{+0.042 \\ -0.042}$ & $\bm{-0.18}\substack{+0.042 \\ -0.042}$ & $\bm{-0.13}\substack{+0.044 \\ -0.044}$ & $\bm{-0.21}\substack{+0.043 \\ -0.043}$ & $\bm{-0.19}\substack{+0.041 \\ -0.042}$ & $\bm{-0.13}\substack{+0.044 \\ -0.044}$ \\
\textbf{Stable affiliation} & $-0.05\substack{+0.089 \\ -0.089}$ & $-0.04\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ & $-0.04\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ & $-0.01\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.09}$ \\
\textbf{Academic age} & $\bm{-0.11}\substack{+0.046 \\ -0.046}$ & $\bm{-0.11}\substack{+0.046 \\ -0.046}$ & $\bm{-0.14}\substack{+0.045 \\ -0.046}$ & $\bm{-0.08}\substack{+0.05 \\ -0.05}$ & $\bm{-0.1}\substack{+0.05 \\ -0.05}$ & $\bm{-0.13}\substack{+0.047 \\ -0.053}$ \\
\hline Hadrons & $+0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $-0.11\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.008\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.004\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.02}$ & $-0.008\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ & $+0.001\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.01}$ \\
String theory \& supergravity & $\bm{+0.29}\substack{+0.14 \\ -0.14}$ & $\bm{+0.38}\substack{+0.18 \\ -0.17}$ & $\bm{+0.16}\substack{+0.13 \\ -0.12}$ & $\bm{+0.02}\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.02}$ & $\bm{+0.04}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.02}$ & $+0.005\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.009}$ \\
Perturbative methods & $+0.1\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.03\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.09\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.01\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.02}$ & $+0.01\substack{+0.034 \\ -0.025}$ & $+0.009\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.01}$ \\
Classical fields & $-0.14\substack{+0.28 \\ -0.46}$ & $-0.1\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.44}$ & $-0.09\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.4}$ & $-0.01\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.05}$ & $-0.009\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.05}$ & $-0.004\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ \\
Collider physics & $\bm{-0.15}\substack{+0.15 \\ -0.16}$ & $\bm{-0.33}\substack{+0.18 \\ -0.18}$ & $\bm{-0.18}\substack{+0.15 \\ -0.15}$ & $-0.003\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.02}$ & $\bm{-0.02}\substack{+0.019 \\ -0.029}$ & $-0.003\substack{+0.01 \\ -0.01}$ \\
Dynamics & $-0.04\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $-0.01\substack{+0.35 \\ -0.36}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.0009\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.03}$ & $+0.003\substack{+0.05 \\ -0.04}$ & $+0.001\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.02}$ \\
Neutrinos \& flavour physics & $\bm{+0.25}\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.16}$ & $+0.17\substack{+0.19 \\ -0.18}$ & $\bm{+0.18}\substack{+0.16 \\ -0.15}$ & $\bm{+0.02}\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.02}$ & $+0.02\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.02}$ & $+0.008\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.01}$ \\
Black holes & $+0.03\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.16\substack{+0.21 \\ -0.19}$ & $+0.002\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $-0.008\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ & $+0.006\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.02}$ & $-0.007\substack{+0.01 \\ -0.02}$ \\
Gauge theory \& Grand Unification & $-0.06\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.3}$ & $-0.08\substack{+0.29 \\ -0.35}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.3}$ & $-0.003\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.03}$ & $-0.007\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.05}$ & $+0.0002\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.02}$ \\
Dark matter & $-0.2\substack{+0.21 \\ -0.24}$ & $\bm{-0.3}\substack{+0.25 \\ -0.26}$ & $-0.19\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.24}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.04}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.04}$ & $-0.009\substack{+0.01 \\ -0.03}$ \\
Thermodynamics & $+0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.19\substack{+0.39 \\ -0.29}$ & $+0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.21}$ & $+0.006\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.03}$ & $+0.01\substack{+0.05 \\ -0.03}$ & $+0.004\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.02}$ \\
Cosmology & $-0.008\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $-0.009\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ & $-0.003\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ & $-0.006\substack{+0.01 \\ -0.02}$ \\
Electroweak sector & $-0.06\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $-0.17\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.18}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.002\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.02}$ & $-0.01\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ & $+0.005\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.01}$ \\
QCD & $-0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.1\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.19}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.003\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.02}$ & $-0.008\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ & $+0.003\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.01}$ \\
Quantum Field Theory & $+0.05\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.13\substack{+0.25 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.05\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.006\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ & $+0.001\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.03}$ & $-0.002\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.02}$ \\
AdS/CFT & $-0.005\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.003\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.008\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ & $-0.002\substack{+0.03 \\ -0.03}$ & $-0.004\substack{+0.02 \\ -0.03}$ \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}\normalsize\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{1}
\end{table}