\begin{table}[H]
\caption{Effect of each variable on (a) the probability of having entered a new research area and (b) the probability of having exited a research area, for each model. The reference model uses entropy as the diversity measure $D$ and the magnitude of intellectual capital as a measure of power $P$. Values indicate the mean posterior effect size and the 95\% credible interval. Significant effects are shown in bold.}
\label{table:summary_entered_exited}
\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{2}\fontsize{6}{7}\selectfont\begin{tabular}{lllll}
\toprule
Dep. variable & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Entered a new research area} & \multicolumn{2}{c}{Exited a research area} \\
Model & Reference & $D=\text{Stirling}$ & Reference & $D=\text{Stirling}$ \\
Predictor &  &  &  &  \\
\midrule
\textbf{Intellectual capital (diversity)} & $\bm{+0.2}\substack{+0.11 \\ -0.11}$ & $\bm{+0.17}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{+1}\substack{+0.14 \\ -0.14}$ & $\bm{+0.85}\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.12}$ \\
\textbf{Social capital (diversity)} & $\bm{+0.22}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{+0.18}\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ \\
\textbf{Social capital (power)} & $+0.006\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $+0.03\substack{+0.15 \\ -0.15}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.02\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ \\
\textbf{Stable affiliation} & $-0.19\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.22}$ & $-0.18\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.22}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $+0.06\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ \\
\textbf{Academic age} & $+0.04\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.11}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{-0.21}\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.12}$ & $\bm{-0.21}\substack{+0.12 \\ -0.12}$ \\
\textbf{Productivity (co-authored)} & $-0.07\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $-0.08\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $\bm{-0.28}\substack{+0.15 \\ -0.14}$ & $\bm{-0.28}\substack{+0.15 \\ -0.15}$ \\
\textbf{Productivity (solo-authored)} & $-0.05\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.09}$ & $-0.05\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.09}$ & $-0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ & $-0.007\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ \\
\hline Hadrons & $-0.14\substack{+0.29 \\ -0.36}$ & $-0.24\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.39}$ & $+0.03\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.09\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ \\
String theory \& supergravity & $\bm{+0.32}\substack{+0.32 \\ -0.3}$ & $\bm{+0.4}\substack{+0.35 \\ -0.33}$ & $\bm{+0.3}\substack{+0.34 \\ -0.3}$ & $\bm{+0.65}\substack{+0.39 \\ -0.38}$ \\
Perturbative methods & $+0.11\substack{+0.45 \\ -0.35}$ & $+0.09\substack{+0.5 \\ -0.4}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.29 \\ -0.34}$ & $-0.13\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.48}$ \\
Classical fields & $+0.22\substack{+1.1 \\ -0.6}$ & $+0.34\substack{+1.4 \\ -0.7}$ & $-0.07\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.6}$ & $-0.07\substack{+0.7 \\ -0.8}$ \\
Collider physics & $\bm{-0.43}\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.34}$ & $\bm{-0.61}\substack{+0.33 \\ -0.34}$ & $-0.01\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.28\substack{+0.32 \\ -0.37}$ \\
Neutrinos \& flavour physics & $+0.08\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $-0.21\substack{+0.25 \\ -0.35}$ & $-0.31\substack{+0.35 \\ -0.41}$ \\
Black holes & $-0.0006\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.06\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.08\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.43\substack{+0.53 \\ -0.45}$ \\
Gauge theory \& Grand Unification & $-0.04\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.6}$ & $-0.04\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.7}$ & $-0.08\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.6}$ & $-0.11\substack{+0.64 \\ -0.79}$ \\
Dark matter & $\bm{-0.62}\substack{+0.55 \\ -0.56}$ & $\bm{-0.68}\substack{+0.55 \\ -0.56}$ & $-0.05\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ & $-0.11\substack{+0.42 \\ -0.5}$ \\
Thermodynamics & $-0.03\substack{+0.5 \\ -0.6}$ & $+0.01\substack{+0.62 \\ -0.58}$ & $-0.05\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.6}$ & $+0.03\substack{+0.7 \\ -0.6}$ \\
Cosmology & $-0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.09\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.36\substack{+0.56 \\ -0.43}$ \\
Electroweak sector & $+0.05\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.009\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $-0.003\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ & $-0.04\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ \\
QCD & $+0.008\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ & $-0.03\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.32 \\ -0.26}$ & $+0.04\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.4}$ \\
Quantum Field Theory & $+0.15\substack{+0.52 \\ -0.38}$ & $+0.22\substack{+0.57 \\ -0.41}$ & $+0.05\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.3}$ & $+0.26\substack{+0.64 \\ -0.44}$ \\
AdS/CFT & $+0.14\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.42}$ & $+0.22\substack{+0.67 \\ -0.47}$ & $-0.06\substack{+0.4 \\ -0.5}$ & $+0.07\substack{+0.6 \\ -0.5}$ \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}\normalsize\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{1}
\end{table}