\begin{table}[H]
\centering
\caption{Effect of each variable on (a) the change score and (b) the disruption score for each model. The reference model uses entropy as the diversity measure $D$ and the magnitude of intellectual capital as a measure of power $P$. Values indicate the mean posterior effect size and the 95\% credible interval. Significant effects are shown in bold.}
\label{table:summary_change_disruption}
\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{2}\fontsize{6}{7}\selectfont\begin{tabular}{lllllll}
\toprule
Dep. variable & \multicolumn{3}{c}{Change score ($c_a$)} & \multicolumn{3}{c}{Disruption score ($d_a$)} \\
Model &                                Reference &                      $D=\text{Stirling}$ &                     $P=\text{Brokerage}$ &                                Reference &                      $D=\text{Stirling}$ &                     $P=\text{Brokerage}$ \\
Predictor                                 &                                          &                                          &                                          &                                          &                                          &                                          \\
\midrule
\textbf{Intellectual capital (diversity)} &  $\bm{+0.29}\substack{+0.043 \\ -0.043}$ &  $\bm{+0.29}\substack{+0.041 \\ -0.041}$ &  $\bm{+0.27}\substack{+0.043 \\ -0.042}$ &  $\bm{+0.32}\substack{+0.044 \\ -0.044}$ &  $\bm{+0.34}\substack{+0.041 \\ -0.041}$ &   $\bm{+0.3}\substack{+0.044 \\ -0.043}$ \\
\textbf{Social capital (diversity)}       &   $\bm{+0.1}\substack{+0.041 \\ -0.041}$ &    $\bm{+0.08}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ &   $\bm{+0.09}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.041}$ &  $\bm{+0.12}\substack{+0.041 \\ -0.041}$ &  $\bm{+0.11}\substack{+0.042 \\ -0.041}$ &   $\bm{+0.1}\substack{+0.041 \\ -0.041}$ \\
\textbf{Social capital (power)}           &   $\bm{-0.12}\substack{+0.06 \\ -0.059}$ &     $\bm{-0.1}\substack{+0.06 \\ -0.06}$ &    $\bm{-0.06}\substack{+0.05 \\ -0.05}$ &   $\bm{-0.19}\substack{+0.059 \\ -0.06}$ &  $\bm{-0.17}\substack{+0.059 \\ -0.059}$ &    $\bm{-0.09}\substack{+0.05 \\ -0.05}$ \\
\textbf{Stable affiliation}               &         $-0.06\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ &         $-0.05\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ &         $-0.06\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ &         $-0.05\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ &         $-0.04\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ &         $-0.04\substack{+0.09 \\ -0.09}$ \\
\textbf{Academic age}                     &  $\bm{-0.16}\substack{+0.053 \\ -0.052}$ &  $\bm{-0.16}\substack{+0.052 \\ -0.052}$ &   $\bm{-0.2}\substack{+0.046 \\ -0.047}$ &  $\bm{-0.11}\substack{+0.053 \\ -0.053}$ &  $\bm{-0.11}\substack{+0.053 \\ -0.053}$ &  $\bm{-0.17}\substack{+0.047 \\ -0.047}$ \\
\textbf{Productivity (co-authored)}       &  $\bm{-0.13}\substack{+0.057 \\ -0.057}$ &  $\bm{-0.13}\substack{+0.057 \\ -0.057}$ &  $\bm{-0.18}\substack{+0.046 \\ -0.046}$ &    $\bm{-0.08}\substack{+0.06 \\ -0.06}$ &    $\bm{-0.08}\substack{+0.06 \\ -0.06}$ &  $\bm{-0.17}\substack{+0.048 \\ -0.047}$ \\
\textbf{Productivity (solo-authored)}     &    $\bm{-0.04}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ &         $-0.04\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ &    $\bm{-0.05}\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ &         $-0.03\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ &         $-0.02\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ &         $-0.04\substack{+0.04 \\ -0.04}$ \\
\hline Hadrons                                   &           $+0.04\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.1}$ &           $-0.09\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &           $+0.05\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.1}$ &           $+0.06\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.1}$ &           $-0.03\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &           $+0.07\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.1}$ \\
String theory \& supergravity             &    $\bm{+0.29}\substack{+0.14 \\ -0.14}$ &    $\bm{+0.37}\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.17}$ &    $\bm{+0.24}\substack{+0.13 \\ -0.13}$ &         $+0.12\substack{+0.14 \\ -0.12}$ &    $\bm{+0.27}\substack{+0.13 \\ -0.13}$ &         $+0.05\substack{+0.13 \\ -0.11}$ \\
Perturbative methods                      &         $+0.13\substack{+0.21 \\ -0.17}$ &           $+0.05\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &         $+0.14\substack{+0.21 \\ -0.17}$ &         $+0.15\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.17}$ &           $+0.07\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.1}$ &         $+0.18\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.19}$ \\
Classical fields                          &         $-0.14\substack{+0.29 \\ -0.46}$ &            $-0.1\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ &         $-0.12\substack{+0.27 \\ -0.44}$ &          $-0.1\substack{+0.25 \\ -0.41}$ &           $-0.03\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ &          $-0.1\substack{+0.26 \\ -0.42}$ \\
Collider physics                          &         $-0.12\substack{+0.14 \\ -0.15}$ &     $\bm{-0.3}\substack{+0.18 \\ -0.18}$ &         $-0.11\substack{+0.14 \\ -0.16}$ &           $+0.05\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &           $-0.06\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &         $+0.06\substack{+0.15 \\ -0.12}$ \\
Dynamics                                  &         $-0.04\substack{+0.29 \\ -0.34}$ &         $-0.0007\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ &           $-0.03\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ &           $+0.01\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ &           $+0.05\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ &           $+0.01\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.3}$ \\
Neutrinos \& flavour physics              &    $\bm{+0.25}\substack{+0.16 \\ -0.16}$ &         $+0.16\substack{+0.19 \\ -0.17}$ &    $\bm{+0.25}\substack{+0.16 \\ -0.16}$ &    $\bm{+0.17}\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.15}$ &         $+0.12\substack{+0.15 \\ -0.13}$ &    $\bm{+0.16}\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.15}$ \\
Black holes                               &           $+0.02\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.1}$ &         $+0.14\substack{+0.21 \\ -0.18}$ &          $-0.003\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &         $-0.15\substack{+0.16 \\ -0.18}$ &          $+0.006\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &     $\bm{-0.2}\substack{+0.18 \\ -0.19}$ \\
Gauge theory \& Grand Unification         &           $-0.07\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.3}$ &           $-0.08\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.4}$ &          $-0.05\substack{+0.24 \\ -0.3}$ &           $-0.02\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.3}$ &           $-0.01\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &         $-0.01\substack{+0.24 \\ -0.26}$ \\
Dark matter                               &    $\bm{-0.24}\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.24}$ &    $\bm{-0.33}\substack{+0.25 \\ -0.26}$ &    $\bm{-0.22}\substack{+0.22 \\ -0.24}$ &         $-0.12\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.22}$ &         $-0.16\substack{+0.18 \\ -0.24}$ &         $-0.13\substack{+0.18 \\ -0.23}$ \\
Thermodynamics                            &          $+0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.23}$ &         $+0.18\substack{+0.38 \\ -0.28}$ &           $+0.07\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ &           $+0.05\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ &         $+0.12\substack{+0.34 \\ -0.22}$ &           $+0.05\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ \\
Cosmology                                 &           $-0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.2}$ &           $+0.02\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &           $-0.03\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.2}$ &           $-0.08\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.2}$ &         $-0.01\substack{+0.13 \\ -0.14}$ &         $-0.11\substack{+0.15 \\ -0.18}$ \\
Electroweak sector                        &           $-0.07\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &    $\bm{-0.19}\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.18}$ &           $-0.05\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &          $+0.002\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &           $-0.06\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &           $+0.03\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ \\
QCD                                       &           $-0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &          $-0.1\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.19}$ &           $-0.01\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &           $-0.03\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ &           $-0.08\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.2}$ &           $-0.02\substack{+0.1 \\ -0.1}$ \\
Quantum Field Theory                      &           $+0.05\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &          $+0.13\substack{+0.24 \\ -0.2}$ &           $+0.03\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &         $-0.12\substack{+0.17 \\ -0.22}$ &           $-0.02\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &         $-0.16\substack{+0.19 \\ -0.24}$ \\
AdS/CFT                                   &           $-0.01\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &           $+0.06\substack{+0.3 \\ -0.2}$ &           $-0.02\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &           $-0.01\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &           $+0.07\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ &           $-0.03\substack{+0.2 \\ -0.2}$ \\
\bottomrule
\end{tabular}\normalsize\renewcommand{\arraystretch}{1}
\end{table}
